Brazil Serie A: Under 2.5 Goals predictions and stats
Brazil Serie A 2026 so far: 143 of 296 matches (48%) had two goals or fewer (results to 11 Oct).
Zero, one or two total goals at full-time. Matches ranked by model probability.
Upcoming Brazil Serie A fixtures
Kickoff times: Europe/Belgrade
After Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 13 matches
Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro29 Oct 23:30Under 2.5Model 58.9%Implied 51.0%▲ +7.9%- Corinthians – Mirassol1 Nov 00:00Under 2.5Model 56.5%Implied 54.9%▲ +1.5%
- Bahia – Sao Paulo29 Oct 01:30Under 2.5Model 56.1%Implied 51.5%▲ +4.5%
- Fluminense – Internacional28 Oct 23:30Under 2.5Model 55.4%Implied 55.2%▲ +0.1%
- Gremio – Athletico-PR30 Oct 01:30Under 2.5Model 53.4%Implied 54.1%-0.6%
- Santos – Palmeiras28 Oct 23:30Under 2.5Model 51.4%Implied 53.5%-2.0%
- Bragantino – Santos4 Nov 00:00Under 2.5Model 50.6%Implied 46.9%▲ +3.6%
- Remo – Botafogo RJ29 Oct 01:30Under 2.5Model 49.5%Implied 46.9%▲ +2.6%
- Coritiba – Vitoria29 Oct 23:30Under 2.5Model 49.2%Implied 53.8%-4.6%
- Flamengo RJ – Atletico-MG28 Oct 00:00Under 2.5Model 48.6%Implied 41.8%▲ +6.8%
- Vasco – Flamengo RJ31 Oct 00:00Under 2.5Model 46.8%Implied 49.5%-2.8%
- Chapecoense-SC – Mirassol3 Nov 23:30Under 2.5Model 44.5%Implied 50.0%-5.5%
- Bragantino – Chapecoense-SC28 Oct 23:30Under 2.5Model 43.2%Implied 38.2%▲ +5.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico-MG– Cruzeiro | 29 Oct | 23:30 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 51.0% | ▲ +7.9% | 1.96 |
| 2 |  Corinthians– Mirassol | 1 Nov | 00:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 54.9% | ▲ +1.5% | 1.82 |
| 3 |  Bahia– Sao Paulo | 29 Oct | 01:30 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 51.5% | ▲ +4.5% | 1.94 |
| 4 |  Fluminense– Internacional | 28 Oct | 23:30 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 55.2% | ▲ +0.1% | 1.81 |
| 5 |  Gremio– Athletico-PR | 30 Oct | 01:30 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 54.1% | -0.6% | 1.85 |
| 6 |  Santos– Palmeiras | 28 Oct | 23:30 | Under 2.5 | 51.4% | 53.5% | -2.0% | 1.87 |
| 7 |  Bragantino–Santos | 4 Nov | 00:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 46.9% | ▲ +3.6% | 2.13 |
| 8 |  Remo– Botafogo RJ | 29 Oct | 01:30 | Under 2.5 | 49.5% | 46.9% | ▲ +2.6% | 2.13 |
| 9 |  Coritiba– Vitoria | 29 Oct | 23:30 | Under 2.5 | 49.2% | 53.8% | -4.6% | 1.86 |
| 10 |  Flamengo RJ–Atletico-MG | 28 Oct | 00:00 | Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 41.8% | ▲ +6.8% | 2.39 |
| 11 |  Vasco–Flamengo RJ | 31 Oct | 00:00 | Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 49.5% | -2.8% | 2.02 |
| 12 |  Chapecoense-SC–Mirassol | 3 Nov | 23:30 | Under 2.5 | 44.5% | 50.0% | -5.5% | 2.00 |
| 13 | Bragantino–Chapecoense-SC | 28 Oct | 23:30 | Under 2.5 | 43.2% | 38.2% | ▲ +5.0% | 2.62 |
Model % is the pre-match estimated chance, not a live probability or a past hit rate.
Implied % comes from the odds. Divergence is the difference in percentage points.
Under 2.5 by team, 2026
How often each team's matches had two goals or fewer this season, highest first. Home and away: matches with two goals or fewer / matches played.
| Team | Played | Under 2.5 | % | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino | 29 | 18 | 62% | 8/14 | 10/15 |
| Internacional | 30 | 18 | 60% | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 30 | 18 | 60% | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Gremio | 30 | 17 | 57% | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Vitoria | 30 | 17 | 57% | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Corinthians | 30 | 16 | 53% | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 30 | 15 | 50% | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Bahia | 30 | 15 | 50% | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 50% | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Palmeiras | 30 | 15 | 50% | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Remo | 30 | 15 | 50% | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Athletico-PR | 29 | 14 | 48% | 8/15 | 6/14 |
| Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 47% | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Coritiba | 29 | 13 | 45% | 7/14 | 6/15 |
| Chapecoense-SC | 28 | 12 | 43% | 4/13 | 8/15 |
| Vasco | 29 | 12 | 41% | 6/15 | 6/14 |
| Flamengo RJ | 30 | 12 | 40% | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Botafogo RJ | 29 | 10 | 34% | 4/15 | 6/14 |
| Cruzeiro | 29 | 10 | 34% | 6/15 | 4/14 |
| Santos | 30 | 10 | 33% | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Latest results
Brazil Serie A matches in the 7 days to Sun, 11 Oct 2026, the newest result.
- 11 OctGremio 1:1 InternacionalUnder 2.5 yes
- 11 OctFlamengo RJ 1:0 FluminenseUnder 2.5 yes
- 11 OctPalmeiras 4:1 CorinthiansUnder 2.5 no
- 11 OctBahia 1:0 MirassolUnder 2.5 yes
- 11 OctAtletico-MG 2:1 SantosUnder 2.5 no
- 11 OctSao Paulo 2:1 VitoriaUnder 2.5 no
- 10 OctVasco 0:0 RemoUnder 2.5 yes
- 9 OctFluminense 4:0 CoritibaUnder 2.5 no
- 9 OctPalmeiras 1:0 BahiaUnder 2.5 yes
- 8 OctCruzeiro 2:0 Sao PauloUnder 2.5 yes
- 8 OctSantos 2:2 Flamengo RJUnder 2.5 no
- 8 OctAthletico-PR 2:2 Atletico-MGUnder 2.5 no
- 7 OctInternacional 2:1 CorinthiansUnder 2.5 no
- 7 OctRemo 1:1 GremioUnder 2.5 yes
- 7 OctBragantino 1:1 MirassolUnder 2.5 yes
- 7 OctVitoria 4:0 Chapecoense-SCUnder 2.5 no
- 7 OctBotafogo RJ 1:2 VascoUnder 2.5 no
Brazil Serie A table, fixtures and season projection →
Under 2.5 Goals: by day
Under 2.5 Goals: by league
These rankings come from historical data alone — the market usually knows more. Every prediction is logged pre-match and settled in public. Statistics, not betting advice. 18+ · never stake more than you can afford to lose.