Premier League: Under 2.5 Goals predictions and stats
Premier League 2026/27 so far: 40 of 80 matches (50%) had two goals or fewer (results to 25 Oct).
Zero, one or two total goals at full-time. Matches ranked by model probability.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
Kickoff times: Europe/Belgrade
After Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 8 matches
Liverpool – Arsenal1 Nov 17:30Under 2.5Model 51.9%Implied 50.3%▲ +1.6%- Newcastle – Everton2 Nov 21:00Under 2.5Model 50.7%Implied 46.3%▲ +4.4%
- Aston Villa – Fulham31 Oct 21:00Under 2.5Model 50.5%Implied 45.9%▲ +4.6%
- Bournemouth – Leeds31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 49.8%Implied 51.3%-1.5%
- Brentford – Nottingham31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 48.8%Implied 47.2%▲ +1.6%
- Tottenham – Crystal Palace31 Oct 18:30Under 2.5Model 45.9%Implied 42.2%▲ +3.7%
- Chelsea – Manchester Utd31 Oct 13:30Under 2.5Model 38.7%Implied 41.7%-3.0%
- Manchester City – Brighton31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 38.5%Implied 37.3%▲ +1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Liverpool– Arsenal | 1 Nov | 17:30 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 50.3% | ▲ +1.6% | 1.99 |
| 2 |  Newcastle– Everton | 2 Nov | 21:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 46.3% | ▲ +4.4% | 2.16 |
| 3 |  Aston Villa– Fulham | 31 Oct | 21:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 45.9% | ▲ +4.6% | 2.18 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth– Leeds | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 49.8% | 51.3% | -1.5% | 1.95 |
| 5 |  Brentford– Nottingham | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 47.2% | ▲ +1.6% | 2.12 |
| 6 |  Tottenham– Crystal Palace | 31 Oct | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 42.2% | ▲ +3.7% | 2.37 |
| 7 |  Chelsea– Manchester Utd | 31 Oct | 13:30 | Under 2.5 | 38.7% | 41.7% | -3.0% | 2.40 |
| 8 |  Manchester City– Brighton | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 38.5% | 37.3% | ▲ +1.2% | 2.68 |
Model % is the pre-match estimated chance, not a live probability or a past hit rate.
Implied % comes from the odds. Divergence is the difference in percentage points.
Under 2.5 by team, 2026/27
How often each team's matches had two goals or fewer this season, highest first. Home and away: matches with two goals or fewer / matches played.
| Team | Played | Under 2.5 | % | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 8 | 6 | 75% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| Leeds | 8 | 6 | 75% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| Sunderland | 8 | 6 | 75% | 4/4 | 2/4 |
| Fulham | 8 | 5 | 63% | 2/4 | 3/4 |
| Hull | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3/4 | 2/4 |
| Manchester Utd | 8 | 5 | 63% | 2/4 | 3/4 |
| Nottingham | 8 | 5 | 63% | 4/4 | 1/4 |
| Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 63% | 2/4 | 3/4 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 4 | 50% | 1/4 | 3/4 |
| Coventry | 8 | 4 | 50% | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 50% | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 38% | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| Bournemouth | 8 | 3 | 38% | 3/4 | 0/4 |
| Brentford | 8 | 3 | 38% | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| Brighton | 8 | 3 | 38% | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| Crystal Palace | 8 | 3 | 38% | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 38% | 2/4 | 1/4 |
| Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 38% | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 2 | 25% | 1/4 | 1/4 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 2 | 25% | 1/4 | 1/4 |
Latest results
Premier League matches in the 7 days to Sun, 25 Oct 2026, the newest result.
- 25 OctManchester Utd 0:3 BournemouthUnder 2.5 no
- 25 OctHull 1:1 BrentfordUnder 2.5 yes
- 25 OctLiverpool 2:0 BrightonUnder 2.5 yes
- 25 OctCrystal Palace 0:2 NewcastleUnder 2.5 yes
- 25 OctSunderland 0:0 LeedsUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctAston Villa 2:1 Manchester CityUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctArsenal 2:0 EvertonUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctCoventry 0:1 FulhamUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctChelsea 0:2 TottenhamUnder 2.5 yes
- 23 OctIpswich 1:1 NottinghamUnder 2.5 yes
- 19 OctTottenham 3:1 CoventryUnder 2.5 no
Premier League table, fixtures and season projection →
Under 2.5 Goals: by day
Under 2.5 Goals: by league
These rankings come from historical data alone — the market usually knows more. Every prediction is logged pre-match and settled in public. Statistics, not betting advice. 18+ · never stake more than you can afford to lose.