Premier League: Over 2.5 Goals predictions and stats
Premier League 2026/27 so far: 40 of 80 matches (50%) had three or more goals (results to 25 Oct).
Three or more total goals at full-time. Matches ranked by model probability.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
Kickoff times: Europe/Belgrade
After Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 8 matches
Manchester City – Brighton31 Oct 16:00Over 2.5Model 61.5%Implied 69.0%-7.5%- Chelsea – Manchester Utd31 Oct 13:30Over 2.5Model 61.3%Implied 64.9%-3.6%
- Tottenham – Crystal Palace31 Oct 18:30Over 2.5Model 54.1%Implied 62.9%-8.7%
- Brentford – Nottingham31 Oct 16:00Over 2.5Model 51.2%Implied 57.8%-6.6%
- Bournemouth – Leeds31 Oct 16:00Over 2.5Model 50.2%Implied 53.5%-3.3%
- Aston Villa – Fulham31 Oct 21:00Over 2.5Model 49.5%Implied 59.2%-9.6%
- Newcastle – Everton2 Nov 21:00Over 2.5Model 49.3%Implied 58.8%-9.5%
- Liverpool – Arsenal1 Nov 17:30Over 2.5Model 48.1%Implied 54.6%-6.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City– Brighton | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 69.0% | -7.5% | 1.45 |
| 2 |  Chelsea– Manchester Utd | 31 Oct | 13:30 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 64.9% | -3.6% | 1.54 |
| 3 |  Tottenham– Crystal Palace | 31 Oct | 18:30 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 62.9% | -8.7% | 1.59 |
| 4 |  Brentford– Nottingham | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 57.8% | -6.6% | 1.73 |
| 5 |  Bournemouth– Leeds | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 53.5% | -3.3% | 1.87 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa– Fulham | 31 Oct | 21:00 | Over 2.5 | 49.5% | 59.2% | -9.6% | 1.69 |
| 7 |  Newcastle– Everton | 2 Nov | 21:00 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 58.8% | -9.5% | 1.70 |
| 8 |  Liverpool– Arsenal | 1 Nov | 17:30 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 54.6% | -6.5% | 1.83 |
Model % is the pre-match estimated chance, not a live probability or a past hit rate.
Implied % comes from the odds. Divergence is the difference in percentage points.
Over 2.5 by team, 2026/27
How often each team's matches had three or more goals this season, highest first. Home and away: matches with three or more goals / matches played.
| Team | Played | Over 2.5 | % | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 8 | 6 | 75% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 6 | 75% | 3/4 | 3/4 |
| Aston Villa | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3/4 | 2/4 |
| Bournemouth | 8 | 5 | 63% | 1/4 | 4/4 |
| Brentford | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3/4 | 2/4 |
| Brighton | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3/4 | 2/4 |
| Crystal Palace | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3/4 | 2/4 |
| Ipswich | 8 | 5 | 63% | 2/4 | 3/4 |
| Newcastle | 8 | 5 | 63% | 3/4 | 2/4 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 4 | 50% | 3/4 | 1/4 |
| Coventry | 8 | 4 | 50% | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 50% | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| Fulham | 8 | 3 | 38% | 2/4 | 1/4 |
| Hull | 8 | 3 | 38% | 1/4 | 2/4 |
| Manchester Utd | 8 | 3 | 38% | 2/4 | 1/4 |
| Nottingham | 8 | 3 | 38% | 0/4 | 3/4 |
| Tottenham | 8 | 3 | 38% | 2/4 | 1/4 |
| Everton | 8 | 2 | 25% | 1/4 | 1/4 |
| Leeds | 8 | 2 | 25% | 1/4 | 1/4 |
| Sunderland | 8 | 2 | 25% | 0/4 | 2/4 |
Latest results
Premier League matches in the 7 days to Sun, 25 Oct 2026, the newest result.
- 25 OctManchester Utd 0:3 BournemouthOver 2.5 yes
- 25 OctHull 1:1 BrentfordOver 2.5 no
- 25 OctLiverpool 2:0 BrightonOver 2.5 no
- 25 OctCrystal Palace 0:2 NewcastleOver 2.5 no
- 25 OctSunderland 0:0 LeedsOver 2.5 no
- 24 OctAston Villa 2:1 Manchester CityOver 2.5 yes
- 24 OctArsenal 2:0 EvertonOver 2.5 no
- 24 OctCoventry 0:1 FulhamOver 2.5 no
- 24 OctChelsea 0:2 TottenhamOver 2.5 no
- 23 OctIpswich 1:1 NottinghamOver 2.5 no
- 19 OctTottenham 3:1 CoventryOver 2.5 yes
Premier League table, fixtures and season projection →
Over 2.5 Goals: by day
Over 2.5 Goals: by league
These rankings come from historical data alone — the market usually knows more. Every prediction is logged pre-match and settled in public. Statistics, not betting advice. 18+ · never stake more than you can afford to lose.