Match Predictions — Data vs Market

Data probability vs market price for every upcoming match. ✓ = data lean in a calibrated market.

Every upcoming match with the market where its history diverges most from the current price — data probabilities next to market-implied odds, sortable by divergence. ✓ marks data leans in historically calibrated markets. The market is usually right; we publish what happens either way.

Best1X2O/U 2.5HT 1.5BTTSAll≥ +2%≥ +5%

• KaPa – EkenasSat 8 15:00
  FT O3.5 ✓53.7%vs 40.8%▲ +12.9%
• Djurgarden W – Uppsala WSat 8 13:00
  Away win22.3%vs 11.0%▲ +11.3%
• Mjallby – ElfsborgSat 8 15:30
  Home win ✓52.1%vs 40.8%▲ +11.2%
• AIK W – IF Brommapojkarna WTomorrow 17:00
  FT O3.5 ✓51.0%vs 40.2%▲ +10.8%
• Gimpo FC – CheongjuTomorrow 11:00
  Under 2.5 ✓66.9%vs 57.8%▲ +9.1%
• Start – FredrikstadSat 8 16:00
  Away win41.0%vs 32.9%▲ +8.1%
• SJK Akatemia – PK-35Sat 8 15:00
  Under 1.5 HT ✓80.1%vs 72.5%▲ +7.7%
• Derry City – Sligo RoversTomorrow 18:45
  Under 1.5 HT ✓74.6%vs 67.6%▲ +7.1%
• Lok. Sofia – CSKA 1948 SofiaSat 8 16:00
  Away win ✓47.8%vs 41.7%▲ +6.1%
• Levski Sofia – Lok. PlovdivTomorrow 18:15
  Under 1.5 HT ✓75.5%vs 69.4%▲ +6.1%
• Galway – DroghedaTomorrow 18:45
  Under 1.5 HT ✓74.1%vs 68.5%▲ +5.6%
• Cork City – KerryTomorrow 18:45
  Under 1.5 HT ✓71.7%vs 66.2%▲ +5.5%
• Gimcheon Sangmu – SeoulSat 8 11:00
  Home win ✓32.2%vs 27.0%▲ +5.2%
• Vila Nova FC – Sport RecifeSat 8 19:00
  Away win ✓35.0%vs 29.9%▲ +5.0%
• Sandefjord – KFUM OsloTomorrow 17:00
  Under 2.5 ✓52.6%vs 47.6%▲ +5.0%
• SJK – GnistanTomorrow 16:00
  Under 1.5 HT ✓68.2%vs 63.3%▲ +4.9%
• UC Dublin – WexfordTomorrow 18:45
  Home win ✓55.7%vs 51.0%▲ +4.7%
• Narva – KaljuSat 8 16:00
  FT U3.5 ✓70.4%vs 65.8%▲ +4.6%
• Botafogo SP – America MGSat 8 21:30
  Away win ✓27.1%vs 22.6%▲ +4.5%
• Ostersund – SundsvallTomorrow 17:00
  Away win ✓20.2%vs 15.8%▲ +4.4%
• Remo – Atletico-MGSat 8 21:30
  Home win37.7%vs 33.7%▲ +4.0%
• Haka – JippoTomorrow 15:00
  Under 2.556.6%vs 52.6%▲ +4.0%
• Cobh Ramblers – Treaty UnitedTomorrow 18:45
  Home win ✓51.6%vs 48.1%▲ +3.5%
• Athlone – LongfordTomorrow 18:45
  Under 1.5 HT ✓75.4%vs 71.9%▲ +3.4%
• Kuressaare – Harju JK LaagriTomorrow 16:00
  Under 2.5 ✓50.6%vs 47.2%▲ +3.4%
• Anyang – DaejeonSat 8 11:00
  Home win ✓39.5%vs 36.2%▲ +3.2%
• JaPS – MikkeliTomorrow 15:30
  Under 2.5 ✓50.3%vs 47.2%▲ +3.2%
• Jeonbuk – Jeju SKSat 8 11:00
  Under 2.5 ✓59.7%vs 56.8%▲ +2.8%
• Ceara – Ponte PretaSat 8 23:30
  Away win ✓14.0%vs 11.3%▲ +2.6%
• UTA Arad – FC Rapid BucurestiTomorrow 18:00
  Away win ✓39.2%vs 36.8%▲ +2.4%
• Kauno Zalgiris – HegelmannSat 8 16:00
  Away win ✓17.4%vs 15.0%▲ +2.4%
• Shamrock Rovers – DundalkTomorrow 19:00
  Under 1.5 HT ✓69.9%vs 67.6%▲ +2.4%
• Qingdao Hainiu – Shanghai ShenhuaSat 8 11:00
  Home win ✓25.5%vs 23.3%▲ +2.2%
• Jaro – VPSSat 8 16:00
  Under 2.5 ✓52.0%vs 50.0%▲ +2.0%
• Viking – Sarpsborg 08Sat 8 14:00
  Over 1.5 HT ✓54.9%vs 52.9%▲ +2.0%
• Bray – Finn HarpsTomorrow 18:45
  Away win13.8%vs 12.2%▲ +1.6%
• Bucheon FC 1995 – Gwangju FCSat 8 11:00
  Under 1.5 HT78.4%vs 76.9%▲ +1.5%
• Gremio – Sao PauloSat 8 19:00
  Home win43.1%vs 41.7%▲ +1.4%
• Asan – Ansan GreenersTomorrow 11:00
  Under 2.551.0%vs 49.8%▲ +1.2%
• Farul Constanta – Csikszereda M. CiucSat 8 15:30
  Over 1.5 HT41.0%vs 40.8%▲ +0.1%
• Yunnan Yukun – Chengdu RongchengSat 8 12:00
  FT U3.556.0%vs 55.9%▲ +0.1%
• Zhejiang Professional – Wuhan Three TownsSat 8 11:35
  Home win59.1%vs 60.2%-1.2%
• Valerenga – Bodo/GlimtSat 8 12:00
  BTTS: No37.4%vs 38.9%-1.5%
• Radnicki Nis – PartizanSat 8 15:00
  Draw25.6%vs 27.2%-1.7%
• Pohang – Ulsan HDSat 8 11:00
  Away win36.6%vs 38.8%-2.1%

#	Match	Date	Time	Market	Data %	Implied	Divergence▼	Odds
1	KaPa–EkenasYkkonen	Sat 8	15:00	FT O3.5 ✓	53.7%	40.8%	▲ +12.9%	2.45
2	Djurgarden W–Uppsala WAllsvenskan Women	Sat 8	13:00	Away win	22.3%	11.0%	▲ +11.3%	9.13
3	Mjallby–ElfsborgAllsvenskan	Sat 8	15:30	Home win ✓	52.1%	40.8%	▲ +11.2%	2.45
4	AIK W–IF Brommapojkarna WAllsvenskan Women	Tomorrow	17:00	FT O3.5 ✓	51.0%	40.2%	▲ +10.8%	2.49
5	Gimpo FC–CheongjuK League 2	Tomorrow	11:00	Under 2.5 ✓	66.9%	57.8%	▲ +9.1%	1.73
6	Start–FredrikstadEliteserien	Sat 8	16:00	Away win	41.0%	32.9%	▲ +8.1%	3.04
7	SJK Akatemia–PK-35Ykkonen	Sat 8	15:00	Under 1.5 HT ✓	80.1%	72.5%	▲ +7.7%	1.38
8	Derry City–Sligo RoversPremier Division	Tomorrow	18:45	Under 1.5 HT ✓	74.6%	67.6%	▲ +7.1%	1.48
9	Lok. Sofia–CSKA 1948 SofiaParva liga	Sat 8	16:00	Away win ✓	47.8%	41.7%	▲ +6.1%	2.40
10	Levski Sofia–Lok. PlovdivParva liga	Tomorrow	18:15	Under 1.5 HT ✓	75.5%	69.4%	▲ +6.1%	1.44
11	Galway–DroghedaPremier Division	Tomorrow	18:45	Under 1.5 HT ✓	74.1%	68.5%	▲ +5.6%	1.46
12	Cork City–KerryDivision 1	Tomorrow	18:45	Under 1.5 HT ✓	71.7%	66.2%	▲ +5.5%	1.51
13	Gimcheon Sangmu–SeoulK League 1	Sat 8	11:00	Home win ✓	32.2%	27.0%	▲ +5.2%	3.70
14	Vila Nova FC–Sport RecifeSerie B	Sat 8	19:00	Away win ✓	35.0%	29.9%	▲ +5.0%	3.34
15	Sandefjord–KFUM OsloEliteserien	Tomorrow	17:00	Under 2.5 ✓	52.6%	47.6%	▲ +5.0%	2.10
16	SJK–GnistanVeikkausliiga	Tomorrow	16:00	Under 1.5 HT ✓	68.2%	63.3%	▲ +4.9%	1.58
17	UC Dublin–WexfordDivision 1	Tomorrow	18:45	Home win ✓	55.7%	51.0%	▲ +4.7%	1.96
18	Narva–KaljuMeistriliiga	Sat 8	16:00	FT U3.5 ✓	70.4%	65.8%	▲ +4.6%	1.52
19	Botafogo SP–America MGSerie B	Sat 8	21:30	Away win ✓	27.1%	22.6%	▲ +4.5%	4.42
20	Ostersund–SundsvallSuperettan	Tomorrow	17:00	Away win ✓	20.2%	15.8%	▲ +4.4%	6.32
21	Remo–Atletico-MGSerie A	Sat 8	21:30	Home win	37.7%	33.7%	▲ +4.0%	2.97
22	Haka–JippoYkkonen	Tomorrow	15:00	Under 2.5	56.6%	52.6%	▲ +4.0%	1.90
23	Cobh Ramblers–Treaty UnitedDivision 1	Tomorrow	18:45	Home win ✓	51.6%	48.1%	▲ +3.5%	2.08
24	Athlone–LongfordDivision 1	Tomorrow	18:45	Under 1.5 HT ✓	75.4%	71.9%	▲ +3.4%	1.39
25	Kuressaare–Harju JK LaagriMeistriliiga	Tomorrow	16:00	Under 2.5 ✓	50.6%	47.2%	▲ +3.4%	2.12
26	Anyang–DaejeonK League 1	Sat 8	11:00	Home win ✓	39.5%	36.2%	▲ +3.2%	2.76
27	JaPS–MikkeliYkkonen	Tomorrow	15:30	Under 2.5 ✓	50.3%	47.2%	▲ +3.2%	2.12
28	Jeonbuk–Jeju SKK League 1	Sat 8	11:00	Under 2.5 ✓	59.7%	56.8%	▲ +2.8%	1.76
29	Ceara–Ponte PretaSerie B	Sat 8	23:30	Away win ✓	14.0%	11.3%	▲ +2.6%	8.82
30	UTA Arad–FC Rapid BucurestiLiga 1	Tomorrow	18:00	Away win ✓	39.2%	36.8%	▲ +2.4%	2.72
31	Kauno Zalgiris–HegelmannA Lyga	Sat 8	16:00	Away win ✓	17.4%	15.0%	▲ +2.4%	6.67
32	Shamrock Rovers–DundalkPremier Division	Tomorrow	19:00	Under 1.5 HT ✓	69.9%	67.6%	▲ +2.4%	1.48
33	Qingdao Hainiu–Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League	Sat 8	11:00	Home win ✓	25.5%	23.3%	▲ +2.2%	4.30
34	Jaro–VPSVeikkausliiga	Sat 8	16:00	Under 2.5 ✓	52.0%	50.0%	▲ +2.0%	2.00
35	Viking–Sarpsborg 08Eliteserien	Sat 8	14:00	Over 1.5 HT ✓	54.9%	52.9%	▲ +2.0%	1.89
36	Bray–Finn HarpsDivision 1	Tomorrow	18:45	Away win	13.8%	12.2%	▲ +1.6%	8.18
37	Bucheon FC 1995–Gwangju FCK League 1	Sat 8	11:00	Under 1.5 HT	78.4%	76.9%	▲ +1.5%	1.30
38	Gremio–Sao PauloSerie A	Sat 8	19:00	Home win	43.1%	41.7%	▲ +1.4%	2.40
39	Asan–Ansan GreenersK League 2	Tomorrow	11:00	Under 2.5	51.0%	49.8%	▲ +1.2%	2.01
40	Farul Constanta–Csikszereda M. CiucLiga 1	Sat 8	15:30	Over 1.5 HT	41.0%	40.8%	▲ +0.1%	2.45
41	Yunnan Yukun–Chengdu RongchengSuper League	Sat 8	12:00	FT U3.5	56.0%	55.9%	▲ +0.1%	1.79
42	Zhejiang Professional–Wuhan Three TownsSuper League	Sat 8	11:35	Home win	59.1%	60.2%	-1.2%	1.66
43	Valerenga–Bodo/GlimtEliteserien	Sat 8	12:00	BTTS: No	37.4%	38.9%	-1.5%	2.57
44	Radnicki Nis–PartizanSuper Liga	Sat 8	15:00	Draw	25.6%	27.2%	-1.7%	3.67
45	Pohang–Ulsan HDK League 1	Sat 8	11:00	Away win	36.6%	38.8%	-2.1%	2.58

Divergence = data probability − market implied (1/odds)✓ = data lean: divergence ≥ +2%, any market — the same rule as the published backtest and the live ledgerOdds are multi-book averages, re-checked as kickoff nears and frozen ~30 min before the matchClick a row for the full match breakdown

Statistics, not betting advice. 18+ · never stake more than you can afford to lose.