Al Hazem vs Al Nassr
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-11-05 · 18:00 CET
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DWWWWThe score model makes an Al Nassr win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 61.2% vs 51.6% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hazem 0.84 – 2.31 Al Nassr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hazem win | 11.2% | 8.8% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 19.3% | 13.9% | +5.4% |
| Al Nassr win | 69.5% | 77.3% | -7.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 68.2% | -7.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 48.4% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 51.6% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 47.8% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Al Hazem 37 / Al Nassr 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Hazem vs Al Nassr in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.