Fastest starters
Sassuolo22%
10 of their 46 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Pisa38%
10 of their 26 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2024-2025Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−24.7u
371 leans · 49.3% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
🏆
Inter are 2025-2026 champions — 87 pts
Their xPTS said 79.9: a title won, outperforming the market.
2026-27
next season soon
The season in numbers
The outlier
+212.3uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-16.4 ptsPisa produced performances worth 16 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
28%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.1' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie A match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 87 | 79.9 | +7.1 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Napoli | 76 | 67.9 | +8.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | AS Roma | 73 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdown
Follow the Serie A
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+