Biggest divergence
Como – Parma+11.4%
Under 2.5 · data 57% vs market 45%
Fastest starters
AS Roma10%
1 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
AS Roma20%
2 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2025-2026Backtest
Every lean, backed blind+2.7u
918 leans · 44.3% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
The season in numbers
The outlier
+8.9uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-4.4 ptsFiorentina produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
27%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 39.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Como – Parma2026-09-14 16:30Under 2.5 ✓56.9%vs 45.5%▲ +11.4%- Monza – Sassuolo2026-09-18 18:45Away win ✓46.0%vs 39.2%▲ +6.8%
- Lazio – AC Milan2026-09-12 16:00Home win ✓33.4%vs 29.4%▲ +4.0%
- Napoli – Bologna2026-09-13 16:00Away win ✓24.4%vs 20.9%▲ +3.4%
- Lecce – Monza2026-09-13 13:00Under 2.5 ✓63.9%vs 60.6%▲ +3.3%
- Torino – AS Roma2026-09-14 16:30Under 2.5 ✓51.8%vs 48.8%▲ +3.0%
- Inter – Udinese2026-09-14 18:45Away win ✓11.1%vs 8.7%▲ +2.4%
- Sassuolo – Juventus2026-09-13 18:45Under 2.5 ✓52.0%vs 49.8%▲ +2.2%
- Atalanta – Cagliari2026-09-12 18:45Away win16.5%vs 17.6%-1.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Como– Parma | 2026-09-14 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.9% | 45.5% | ▲ +11.4% | 2.20 | |
| 2 |  Monza– Sassuolo | 2026-09-18 | 18:45 | Away win ✓ | 46.0% | 39.2% | ▲ +6.8% | 2.55 | |
| 3 |  Lazio– AC Milan | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | Home win ✓ | 33.4% | 29.4% | ▲ +4.0% | 3.40 | |
| 4 |  Napoli– Bologna | 2026-09-13 | 16:00 | Away win ✓ | 24.4% | 20.9% | ▲ +3.4% | 4.78 | |
| 5 |  Lecce–Monza | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 63.9% | 60.6% | ▲ +3.3% | 1.65 | |
| 6 |  Torino– AS Roma | 2026-09-14 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 51.8% | 48.8% | ▲ +3.0% | 2.05 | |
| 7 |  Inter– Udinese | 2026-09-14 | 18:45 | Away win ✓ | 11.1% | 8.7% | ▲ +2.4% | 11.50 | |
| 8 | Sassuolo– Juventus | 2026-09-13 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 52.0% | 49.8% | ▲ +2.2% | 2.01 | |
| 9 |  Atalanta– Cagliari | 2026-09-12 | 18:45 | Away win | 16.5% | 17.6% | -1.1% | 5.67 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Serie A schedule 10,000 times a day. Inter win the 2026-2027 title in 69% of them, projecting ~83 points; AS Roma are next at 15%. At the other end, Venezia finish in the bottom three in 76% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 9 | 83 | 74–92 | 69% | 98% | — |
| 2 | AS Roma | 9 | 74 | 64–83 | 15% | 78% | — |
| 3 | Como | 7 | 70 | 60–79 | 6% | 59% | — |
| 4 | Juventus | 7 | 68 | 59–78 | 4% | 49% | — |
| 5 | Atalanta | 6 | 67 | 57–76 | 3% | 42% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Lecce | 3 | 35 | 26–43 | — | — | 53% |
| 19 | Monza | 1 | 32 | 23–41 | — | — | 68% |
| 20 | Venezia | 0 | 30 | 21–39 | — | — | 76% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 350 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/italy/serie-a/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie A live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/italy/serie-a">Serie A stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie A match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +8.9u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: +8.9 units over 30 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▲ +0.3u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: +0.3 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -0.3u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: -0.3 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -5.3u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: -5.3 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -8.7u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: -8.7 units over 30 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -9.3u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: -9.3 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -16.7u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Serie A match in 2026-2027: -16.7 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | Inter | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | |
| 3 | Lazio | 9 | 4.2 | +4.8 | |
| 4 | Como | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Venezia | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | |
| 19 |  Genoa | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 0 | 4.4 | -4.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+