Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctBiggest divergence
Monza – Cagliari+11.1%
Away win · data 43% vs market 32%
Fastest starters
Inter22%
4 of their 18 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Napoli50%
5 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025-2026Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points44.3%
the model's side won 44.3% of 918 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+3.2%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +3.2% at market prices across 60 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-6.8 ptsVenezia produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
35%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Monza – Cagliari2026-10-19 16:30Away winModel 42.9%Implied 31.8%▲ +11.1%- AC Milan – Atalanta2026-10-18 16:00Away winModel 33.8%Implied 24.8%▲ +9.0%
- Venezia – Napoli2026-10-17 13:00BTTS: NoModel 55.1%Implied 47.4%▲ +7.8%
- Frosinone – Sassuolo2026-10-16 18:45FT U3.5Model 66.0%Implied 58.5%▲ +7.6%
- AS Roma – Genoa2026-10-17 18:45Under 2.5Model 53.6%Implied 46.3%▲ +7.3%
- Juventus – Lazio2026-10-18 18:45Under 2.5Model 60.7%Implied 53.5%▲ +7.2%
- Udinese – Lecce2026-10-18 10:30Under 2.5Model 61.6%Implied 54.9%▲ +6.6%
- Fiorentina – Como2026-10-18 13:00Under 2.5Model 50.9%Implied 44.8%▲ +6.1%
- Parma – Torino2026-10-19 18:45Under 1.5 HTModel 80.9%Implied 76.9%▲ +4.0%
- Bologna – Inter2026-10-17 16:00Home winModel 20.2%Implied 18.3%▲ +1.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monza– Cagliari | 2026-10-19 | 16:30 | Away win | 42.9% | 31.8% | ▲ +11.1% | 3.14 |
| 2 |  AC Milan– Atalanta | 2026-10-18 | 16:00 | Away win | 33.8% | 24.8% | ▲ +9.0% | 4.04 |
| 3 |  Venezia– Napoli | 2026-10-17 | 13:00 | BTTS: No | 55.1% | 47.4% | ▲ +7.8% | 2.11 |
| 4 |  Frosinone– Sassuolo | 2026-10-16 | 18:45 | FT U3.5 | 66.0% | 58.5% | ▲ +7.6% | 1.71 |
| 5 |  AS Roma– Genoa | 2026-10-17 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 46.3% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.16 |
| 6 |  Juventus– Lazio | 2026-10-18 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 53.5% | ▲ +7.2% | 1.87 |
| 7 |  Udinese– Lecce | 2026-10-18 | 10:30 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 54.9% | ▲ +6.6% | 1.82 |
| 8 |  Fiorentina– Como | 2026-10-18 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 44.8% | ▲ +6.1% | 2.23 |
| 9 |  Parma– Torino | 2026-10-19 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 80.9% | 76.9% | ▲ +4.0% | 1.30 |
| 10 |  Bologna– Inter | 2026-10-17 | 16:00 | Home win | 20.2% | 18.3% | ▲ +1.9% | 5.47 |
Add Serie A fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie A schedule 10,000 times a day. Inter win the 2026-2027 title in 77% of them, projecting ~84 points; AS Roma are next at 14%. At the other end, Venezia finish in the bottom three in 93% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 16 | 84 | 75–92 | 77% | 99% | — |
| 2 | AS Roma | 14 | 75 | 66–83 | 14% | 84% | — |
| 3 | Como | 11 | 67 | 58–76 | 2% | 47% | — |
| 4 | Napoli | 10 | 67 | 58–76 | 2% | 45% | — |
| 5 | Juventus | 11 | 67 | 58–76 | 2% | 44% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Lecce | 6 | 34 | 26–42 | — | — | 54% |
| 19 | Monza | 4 | 32 | 24–40 | — | — | 69% |
| 20 | Venezia | 0 | 25 | 17–33 | — | — | 93% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 320 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/italy/serie-a/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie A live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/italy/serie-a">Serie A stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie A match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +3.2%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out +3.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −0.1%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
Home wins in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out −0.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −1.2%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
Away wins in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out −1.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −9.0%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out −9.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −12.2%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out −12.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −18.1%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out −18.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −31.6%
at market prices · 60 matcheschart →
Draws in Serie A, 2026-2027: across 60 matches the market's prices paid out −31.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 16 | 13.3 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | Lazio | 16 | 8.9 | +7.1 | |
| 3 | AS Roma | 14 | 10.7 | +3.3 | |
| 4 | Cagliari | 13 | 6.1 | +6.9 | |
| 5 | AC Milan | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Parma | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 | |
| 20 | Venezia | 0 | 6.8 | -6.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+