Serie Ahub →Serie A 2020-2021 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 91 | 78.8 | +12.2Outperforming ++ | 2 | +11.0 | +1.1 | 2:0 vs Juventus (+1.5) | 2:1 vs Sampdoria (-2.2) |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 79 | 66.9 | +12.1Outperforming ++ | 5 | -5.8 | +17.9 | 0:3 vs Juventus (+2.1) | 2:0 vs Spezia (-2.1) |
3 | Sassuolo | 38 | 62 | 51.7 | +10.3Outperforming ++ | 8 | +0.7 | +9.6 | 0:2 vs Napoli (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Spezia (-1.9) |
4 | Sampdoria | 38 | 52 | 44.7 | +7.3Outperforming ++ | 14 | +5.7 | +1.6 | 2:1 vs Inter (+2.4) | 2:3 vs Benevento (-1.9) |
5 | Genoa | 38 | 42 | 36.3 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 18 | +1.4 | +4.3 | 2:1 vs Napoli (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Parma (-1.5) |
6 | Napoli | 38 | 77 | 71.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 4 | +1.4 | +3.8 | 1:0 vs Juventus (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Spezia (-2.4) |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 68 | 63.6 | +4.4Outperforming | 7 | +7.8 | -3.4 | 1:3 vs Atalanta (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Udinese (-1.9) |
8 | Spezia | 38 | 39 | 36.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 19 | +2.4 | +0.6 | 1:2 vs Napoli (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Genoa (-1.6) |
9 | Atalanta | 38 | 78 | 75.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 3 | -0.6 | +3.1 | 1:4 vs Lazio (+1.6) | 0:2 vs Verona (-2.2) |
10 | Verona | 38 | 45 | 45.3 | -0.3On expectation | 13 | -0.7 | +0.4 | 0:2 vs Atalanta (+2.4) | 2:1 vs Crotone (-1.8) |
11 | Juventus | 38 | 78 | 78.9 | -0.9On expectation | 1 | +2.4 | -3.3 | 1:3 vs AC Milan (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Benevento (-2.6) |
12 | Cagliari | 38 | 37 | 39.4 | -2.4Underperforming | 15 | -3.0 | +0.7 | 3:2 vs AS Roma (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Genoa (-1.8) |
13 | AS Roma | 38 | 62 | 64.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 6 | +8.5 | -11.4 | 2:0 vs Lazio (+1.9) | 2:0 vs Parma (-2.0) |
14 | Benevento | 38 | 33 | 36.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 17 | -8.0 | +4.7 | 0:1 vs Juventus (+2.7) | 0:3 vs Spezia (-1.6) |
15 | Bologna | 38 | 41 | 45.8 | -4.8Underperforming | 11 | +1.4 | -6.2 | 2:0 vs Lazio (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Genoa (-1.6) |
16 | Udinese | 38 | 40 | 48.2 | -8.2Underperforming −− | 10 | -6.9 | -1.3 | 1:3 vs Lazio (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Benevento (-1.9) |
17 | Torino | 38 | 37 | 45.8 | -8.8Underperforming −− | 12 | -7.4 | -1.4 | 0:1 vs Udinese (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Cagliari (-1.6) |
18 | Crotone | 38 | 23 | 31.9 | -8.9Underperforming −− | 20 | -1.6 | -7.4 | 2:1 vs Verona (+2.0) | 0:3 vs Genoa (-1.3) |
19 | Fiorentina | 38 | 40 | 50.3 | -10.3Underperforming −− | 9 | -3.0 | -7.3 | 0:3 vs Juventus (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Benevento (-2.2) |
20 | Parma | 38 | 20 | 36.5 | -16.5Underperforming −− | 16 | -9.2 | -7.3 | 2:0 vs AS Roma (+2.2) | 3:4 vs Crotone (-1.7) |