Serie Ahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Napoli | 38 | 90 | 75.2 | +14.8Outperforming ++ | 1 | +3.7 | +11.1 | 1:2 vs AC Milan (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Lazio (-2.0) |
2 | Lazio | 38 | 74 | 61.0 | +13.0Outperforming ++ | 7 | +3.3 | +9.7 | 0:1 vs Napoli (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Salernitana (-2.1) |
3 | Monza | 38 | 52 | 44.9 | +7.1Outperforming ++ | 13 | +0.3 | +6.9 | 0:1 vs Inter (+2.4) | 3:0 vs Salernitana (-1.7) |
4 | Bologna | 38 | 54 | 47.2 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 11 | +3.1 | +3.7 | 0:2 vs Atalanta (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Empoli (-1.6) |
5 | Salernitana | 38 | 42 | 36.0 | +6.0Outperforming ++ | 18 | +6.6 | -0.6 | 1:3 vs Lazio (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Lecce (-1.6) |
6 | Juventus | 38 | 72 | 66.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 4 | +5.5 | -0.3 | 0:1 vs Inter (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Monza (-2.0) |
7 | Empoli | 38 | 43 | 39.0 | +4.0Outperforming | 16 | +5.8 | -1.8 | 0:1 vs Inter (+2.6) | 1:0 vs Spezia (-1.3) |
8 | Torino | 38 | 53 | 52.3 | +0.7On expectation | 9 | -8.2 | +8.9 | 0:1 vs Fiorentina (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Spezia (-1.9) |
9 | AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 70.1 | -0.1On expectation | 3 | +4.3 | -4.4 | 0:4 vs Napoli (+2.0) | 2:5 vs Sassuolo (-2.2) |
10 | Atalanta | 38 | 64 | 64.1 | -0.1On expectation | 5 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 0:1 vs AS Roma (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Lecce (-2.2) |
11 | AS Roma | 38 | 63 | 63.7 | -0.7On expectation | 6 | +1.1 | -1.9 | 1:2 vs Inter (+1.9) | 3:4 vs Sassuolo (-1.9) |
12 | Sassuolo | 38 | 45 | 46.5 | -1.5On expectation | 12 | +1.7 | -3.3 | 2:5 vs AC Milan (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Sampdoria (-1.9) |
13 | Inter | 38 | 72 | 74.4 | -2.4Underperforming | 2 | +1.9 | -4.3 | 0:1 vs Torino (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Empoli (-2.4) |
14 | Fiorentina | 38 | 56 | 58.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 8 | -0.1 | -2.5 | 0:1 vs Inter (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Bologna (-1.8) |
15 | Spezia | 38 | 31 | 36.6 | -5.6Underperforming −− | 17 | -1.2 | -4.3 | 2:1 vs Inter (+2.4) | 0:4 vs Torino (-1.4) |
16 | Udinese | 38 | 46 | 51.6 | -5.6Underperforming −− | 10 | -2.2 | -3.4 | 3:1 vs Inter (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Bologna (-1.8) |
17 | Lecce | 38 | 36 | 42.0 | -6.0Underperforming −− | 15 | -8.0 | +2.0 | 1:2 vs Atalanta (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Salernitana (-1.9) |
18 | Cremonese | 38 | 27 | 35.3 | -8.3Underperforming −− | 19 | -4.4 | -3.9 | 2:1 vs AS Roma (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Sampdoria (-1.6) |
19 | Verona | 38 | 31 | 42.7 | -11.7Underperforming −− | 14 | -3.1 | -8.6 | 0:1 vs Lecce (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Spezia (-1.7) |
20 | Sampdoria | 38 | 19 | 33.8 | -14.8Underperforming −− | 20 | -9.7 | -5.1 | 1:2 vs Sassuolo (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Cremonese (-1.6) |
