Serie Ahub →Serie A 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cagliari | 5 | 12 | 5.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 15 | +0.8 | +5.7 | 1:2 vs Atalanta (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Inter (-0.6) |
2 | Lazio | 5 | 13 | 6.9 | +6.1Outperforming ++ | 9 | +1.4 | +4.7 | 0:1 vs Bologna (+1.8) | 2:2 vs AC Milan (-0.0) |
3 | Frosinone | 5 | 10 | 4.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 17 | +3.3 | +1.9 | 2:0 vs Como (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Juventus (-0.6) |
4 | AS Roma | 5 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 4 | +1.8 | +1.8 | 4:0 vs Fiorentina (+1.1) | 2:2 vs Inter (-0.3) |
5 | Inter | 5 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 1 | +1.9 | +0.4 | 3:2 vs Napoli (+1.0) | 2:2 vs AS Roma (-0.4) |
6 | AC Milan | 5 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.9On expectation | 5 | +1.4 | +0.5 | 1:2 vs Torino (+1.2) | 2:2 vs Lazio (-0.7) |
7 | Lecce | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7On expectation | 20 | +1.1 | +0.6 | 0:2 vs Venezia (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Cagliari (-1.1) |
8 | Sassuolo | 5 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5On expectation | 16 | +3.7 | -2.1 | 3:2 vs Juventus (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Monza (-1.4) |
9 | Como | 5 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3On expectation | 3 | +0.5 | -0.2 | 1:2 vs Napoli (+1.8) | 2:0 vs Frosinone (-2.2) |
10 | Juventus | 5 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2On expectation | 2 | +0.9 | -1.1 | 2:0 vs Atalanta (+1.0) | 3:2 vs Sassuolo (-2.0) |
11 | Napoli | 5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3On expectation | 7 | -0.4 | +0.0 | 0:2 vs Genoa (+1.3) | 1:2 vs Como (-1.5) |
12 | Parma | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.6On expectation | 19 | +0.1 | -0.7 | 2:1 vs Genoa (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Cagliari (-1.3) |
13 | Torino | 5 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8On expectation | 18 | -1.6 | +0.8 | 1:2 vs Fiorentina (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Sassuolo (-1.2) |
14 | Atalanta | 5 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4On expectation | 6 | +0.2 | -1.6 | 1:0 vs Bologna (+1.2) | 1:2 vs Cagliari (-1.9) |
15 | Udinese | 5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5On expectation | 14 | -2.7 | +1.2 | 2:3 vs Monza (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Cagliari (-1.6) |
16 | Monza | 5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6On expectation | 13 | +0.4 | -2.0 | 2:1 vs Sassuolo (+1.7) | 3:2 vs Lecce (-1.4) |
17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 8 | -3.7 | +0.7 | 2:4 vs Venezia (+1.6) | 0:3 vs Frosinone (-1.9) |
18 | Bologna | 5 | 2 | 6.8 | -4.8Underperforming | 10 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 1:1 vs Torino (+-0.7) | 0:1 vs Lazio (-1.5) |
19 | Genoa | 5 | 1 | 5.9 | -4.9Underperforming | 12 | -2.3 | -2.6 | 1:1 vs Frosinone (+-0.5) | 2:1 vs Parma (-1.5) |
20 | Venezia | 5 | 0 | 6.1 | -6.1Underperforming −− | 11 | -4.2 | -1.9 | 2:0 vs AC Milan (+-0.7) | 0:2 vs Lecce (-1.8) |