Serie Ahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 94 | 79.9 | +14.1Outperforming ++ | 1 | +3.1 | +10.9 | 0:3 vs Napoli (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Sassuolo (-2.4) |
2 | Bologna | 38 | 68 | 55.5 | +12.4Outperforming ++ | 9 | +9.5 | +2.9 | 0:2 vs Napoli (+2.0) | 3:0 vs Udinese (-1.6) |
3 | AC Milan | 38 | 75 | 68.3 | +6.7Outperforming ++ | 2 | +2.8 | +4.0 | 1:2 vs AS Roma (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Udinese (-2.2) |
4 | Genoa | 38 | 49 | 44.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 11 | +4.5 | +0.0 | 0:1 vs Lazio (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Monza (-1.6) |
5 | Atalanta | 38 | 69 | 65.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 5 | +4.9 | -1.4 | 0:3 vs Napoli (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Fiorentina (-2.0) |
6 | Juventus | 38 | 71 | 67.8 | +3.3Outperforming | 4 | +2.5 | +0.8 | 0:1 vs AC Milan (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Udinese (-2.2) |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 61 | 57.8 | +3.2Outperforming | 8 | +1.8 | +1.4 | 1:2 vs Napoli (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Genoa (-1.9) |
8 | AS Roma | 38 | 63 | 61.0 | +2.0On expectation | 6 | +5.5 | -3.6 | 2:0 vs Napoli (+1.7) | 2:1 vs Verona (-1.8) |
9 | Monza | 38 | 45 | 43.6 | +1.4On expectation | 13 | -0.9 | +2.3 | 4:2 vs AC Milan (+2.2) | 3:0 vs Empoli (-1.3) |
10 | Fiorentina | 38 | 60 | 58.9 | +1.1On expectation | 7 | +1.5 | -0.4 | 1:3 vs Napoli (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Empoli (-2.2) |
11 | Verona | 38 | 38 | 38.7 | -0.7On expectation | 18 | +1.6 | -2.4 | 2:1 vs AS Roma (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Salernitana (-1.8) |
12 | Torino | 38 | 53 | 54.1 | -1.1On expectation | 10 | +2.7 | -3.8 | 3:0 vs Atalanta (+1.7) | 3:2 vs Empoli (-1.6) |
13 | Empoli | 38 | 36 | 37.5 | -1.4On expectation | 19 | -2.0 | +0.6 | 0:1 vs Napoli (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Verona (-1.6) |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 38 | 41.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 15 | +0.0 | -3.3 | 2:1 vs Lazio (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Verona (-1.6) |
15 | Cagliari | 38 | 36 | 39.8 | -3.8Underperforming | 17 | +2.0 | -5.7 | 2:1 vs Atalanta (+2.1) | 3:1 vs Frosinone (-1.2) |
16 | Frosinone | 38 | 35 | 40.0 | -5.0Underperforming | 16 | +1.7 | -6.6 | 2:1 vs Atalanta (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Udinese (-1.4) |
17 | Udinese | 38 | 37 | 44.5 | -7.5Underperforming −− | 12 | -11.9 | +4.4 | 0:1 vs Juventus (+2.4) | 1:0 vs Verona (-1.3) |
18 | Sassuolo | 38 | 30 | 42.8 | -12.8Underperforming −− | 14 | -4.6 | -8.2 | 1:2 vs Inter (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Monza (-1.6) |
19 | Salernitana | 38 | 17 | 30.9 | -13.9Underperforming −− | 20 | -10.5 | -3.4 | 2:1 vs Lazio (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Empoli (-1.5) |
20 | Napoli | 38 | 53 | 68.0 | -15.0Underperforming −− | 3 | -12.7 | -2.3 | 1:2 vs Atalanta (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Empoli (-2.4) |
