Serie Ahub →Serie A 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Napoli | 38 | 76 | 67.9 | +8.1Outperforming ++ | 4 | +5.8 | +2.3 | 3:1 vs Inter (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Lazio (-2.1) |
2 | Parma | 38 | 45 | 37.5 | +7.5Outperforming ++ | 16 | -0.3 | +7.7 | 0:1 vs AC Milan (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Lecce (-1.8) |
3 | AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 65.6 | +7.4Outperforming ++ | 6 | +6.3 | +1.1 | 0:1 vs Lazio (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Torino (-2.1) |
4 | Inter | 38 | 87 | 79.9 | +7.1Outperforming ++ | 1 | +2.3 | +4.8 | 3:4 vs Como (+1.4) | 1:2 vs Udinese (-2.4) |
5 | Udinese | 38 | 50 | 43.1 | +6.9Outperforming ++ | 13 | -0.8 | +7.8 | 1:2 vs Inter (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Parma (-1.6) |
6 | Como | 38 | 71 | 64.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 7 | +1.3 | +5.2 | 0:2 vs Juventus (+1.9) | 2:1 vs Sassuolo (-2.1) |
7 | Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 43.5 | +5.5Outperforming ++ | 12 | +4.9 | +0.6 | 0:3 vs Atalanta (+2.4) | 1:0 vs Parma (-1.5) |
8 | Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 38.4 | +4.6Outperforming | 15 | +2.7 | +1.9 | 1:2 vs AC Milan (+2.5) | 0:2 vs Lecce (-1.5) |
9 | Torino | 38 | 45 | 42.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 14 | +3.5 | -1.3 | 0:1 vs AS Roma (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Cagliari (-1.8) |
10 | Lazio | 38 | 54 | 52.1 | +1.9On expectation | 9 | +1.0 | +0.9 | 0:2 vs Napoli (+2.4) | 1:0 vs Sassuolo (-1.8) |
11 | Bologna | 38 | 56 | 54.2 | +1.8On expectation | 8 | -8.0 | +9.8 | 2:3 vs Napoli (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Cremonese (-2.1) |
12 | Lecce | 38 | 38 | 36.5 | +1.5On expectation | 17 | -0.6 | +2.1 | 0:1 vs Fiorentina (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Parma (-1.4) |
13 | AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 70.4 | -0.4On expectation | 3 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 0:1 vs Inter (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Parma (-2.4) |
14 | Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 35.3 | -1.3On expectation | 19 | -4.2 | +2.9 | 1:2 vs AC Milan (+2.5) | 1:2 vs Lazio (-1.2) |
15 | Genoa | 38 | 41 | 44.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 11 | -3.1 | -0.0 | 2:1 vs AS Roma (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Cremonese (-1.9) |
16 | Juventus | 38 | 69 | 73.7 | -4.7Underperforming | 2 | -3.0 | -1.7 | 4:3 vs Inter (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Fiorentina (-2.3) |
17 | Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 65.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 5 | -2.8 | -3.8 | 2:3 vs AC Milan (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Sassuolo (-2.1) |
18 | Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 51.9 | -9.9Underperforming −− | 10 | -8.0 | -1.9 | 0:2 vs Juventus (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Lecce (-1.9) |
19 | Verona | 38 | 21 | 36.1 | -15.1Underperforming −− | 18 | -12.6 | -2.5 | 1:2 vs Bologna (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Parma (-1.6) |
20 | Pisa | 38 | 18 | 34.4 | -16.4Underperforming −− | 20 | -9.6 | -6.7 | 3:1 vs Cagliari (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Parma (-1.4) |