Serie Ahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Napoli | 38 | 82 | 71.1 | +10.9Outperforming ++ | 2 | +6.0 | +4.8 | 2:3 vs Atalanta (+1.8) | 3:0 vs Verona (-1.9) |
2 | Fiorentina | 38 | 65 | 55.3 | +9.7Outperforming ++ | 9 | +9.7 | -0.0 | 3:0 vs Inter (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Udinese (-2.0) |
3 | AS Roma | 38 | 69 | 62.1 | +6.9Outperforming ++ | 6 | +6.8 | +0.1 | 0:1 vs Inter (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Empoli (-2.2) |
4 | Atalanta | 38 | 74 | 70.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 3 | -6.0 | +9.8 | 0:3 vs Napoli (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Como (-2.1) |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 62 | 58.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 8 | +5.2 | -1.6 | 2:3 vs AS Roma (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Genoa (-2.1) |
6 | Lazio | 38 | 65 | 61.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 7 | -4.2 | +7.5 | 0:1 vs Atalanta (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Lecce (-2.2) |
7 | Juventus | 38 | 70 | 67.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 5 | +2.8 | -0.1 | 1:0 vs Inter (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Parma (-1.9) |
8 | Inter | 38 | 81 | 79.1 | +1.9On expectation | 1 | +0.8 | +1.1 | 0:2 vs Atalanta (+1.7) | 1:2 vs AC Milan (-1.9) |
9 | Genoa | 38 | 43 | 41.4 | +1.6On expectation | 13 | -2.2 | +3.8 | 1:3 vs Bologna (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Verona (-1.7) |
10 | Verona | 38 | 37 | 36.3 | +0.7On expectation | 19 | -4.0 | +4.7 | 2:3 vs Bologna (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Cagliari (-1.5) |
11 | Torino | 38 | 44 | 44.6 | -0.6On expectation | 12 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 2:1 vs AC Milan (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Lazio (-1.2) |
12 | Udinese | 38 | 44 | 44.8 | -0.8On expectation | 11 | -1.8 | +1.0 | 1:2 vs Fiorentina (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Monza (-2.0) |
13 | Como | 38 | 49 | 50.0 | -1.1On expectation | 10 | +1.0 | -2.1 | 2:3 vs Atalanta (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Empoli (-1.4) |
14 | Parma | 38 | 36 | 39.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 16 | -1.6 | -1.8 | 2:1 vs AC Milan (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Genoa (-1.8) |
15 | Lecce | 38 | 34 | 38.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 17 | -4.1 | +0.1 | 0:1 vs Lazio (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Udinese (-1.3) |
16 | AC Milan | 38 | 63 | 67.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 4 | -2.7 | -1.7 | 1:2 vs Inter (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Parma (-2.0) |
17 | Cagliari | 38 | 36 | 41.4 | -5.4Underperforming −− | 14 | -2.5 | -2.8 | 2:3 vs Parma (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Empoli (-1.7) |
18 | Venezia | 38 | 29 | 37.1 | -8.1Underperforming −− | 18 | -1.6 | -6.5 | 2:0 vs Genoa (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Lecce (-1.6) |
19 | Empoli | 38 | 31 | 39.5 | -8.5Underperforming −− | 15 | -9.5 | +1.1 | 1:2 vs AS Roma (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Verona (-1.8) |
20 | Monza | 38 | 18 | 34.2 | -16.2Underperforming −− | 20 | -11.3 | -4.9 | 1:2 vs Udinese (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Cagliari (-1.5) |
