Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 4 NovThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +12.4% at market prices across 90 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Manchester Utd produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Nottingham – Manchester City2026-11-07 17:30Under 2.5Model 50.8%Implied 44.1%▲ +6.8%- Manchester Utd – Aston Villa2026-11-08 16:30Under 3.5Model 69.2%Implied 64.1%▲ +5.1%
- Crystal Palace – Liverpool2026-11-08 14:00Under 3.5Model 66.6%Implied 62.9%▲ +3.7%
- Sunderland – Chelsea2026-11-08 14:00Home winModel 31.7%Implied 28.0%▲ +3.7%
- Fulham – Newcastle2026-11-07 15:00Home winModel 51.7%Implied 48.8%▲ +2.9%
- Brighton – Brentford2026-11-08 14:00Home winModel 53.9%Implied 52.4%▲ +1.6%
- Leeds – Tottenham2026-11-07 12:30Over 1.5 HTModel 36.9%Implied 35.3%▲ +1.6%
- Ipswich – Bournemouth2026-11-08 14:00Home winModel 27.0%Implied 26.8%▲ +0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nottingham– Manchester City | 2026-11-07 | 17:30 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 44.1% | ▲ +6.8% | 2.27 |
| 2 |  Manchester Utd– Aston Villa | 2026-11-08 | 16:30 | Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 64.1% | ▲ +5.1% | 1.56 |
| 3 |  Crystal Palace– Liverpool | 2026-11-08 | 14:00 | Under 3.5 | 66.6% | 62.9% | ▲ +3.7% | 1.59 |
| 4 |  Sunderland– Chelsea | 2026-11-08 | 14:00 | Home win | 31.7% | 28.0% | ▲ +3.7% | 3.57 |
| 5 |  Fulham– Newcastle | 2026-11-07 | 15:00 | Home win | 51.7% | 48.8% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.05 |
| 6 |  Brighton– Brentford | 2026-11-08 | 14:00 | Home win | 53.9% | 52.4% | ▲ +1.6% | 1.91 |
| 7 |  Leeds– Tottenham | 2026-11-07 | 12:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 36.9% | 35.3% | ▲ +1.6% | 2.83 |
| 8 |  Ipswich– Bournemouth | 2026-11-08 | 14:00 | Home win | 27.0% | 26.8% | ▲ +0.2% | 3.73 |
Every upcoming match with its probabilities: Premier League predictions →
Premier League predictions and stats by market: 1X2 · Over 2.5 · Under 2.5 · BTTS · HT Over 1.5 · HT Under 1.5
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 4 NovWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Arsenal win the 2026-2027 title in 70% of them, projecting ~83 points; Manchester City are next at 26%. At the other end, Ipswich finish in the bottom three in 67% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 24 | 83 | 75–92 | 70% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 21 | 77 | 69–86 | 26% | 98% | — |
| 3 |  Brighton | 19 | 67 | 58–76 | 2% | 73% | — |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 15 | 65 | 56–73 | <1% | 60% | <1% |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 16 | 60 | 51–69 | <1% | 28% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Coventry | 9 | 38 | 30–47 | — | <1% | 49% |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 5 | 37 | 29–45 | — | <1% | 57% |
| 20 |  Ipswich | 11 | 36 | 28–44 | — | — | 67% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 290 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 24 | 18.5 | +5.5 | |
| 2 | Manchester City | 21 | 18.4 | +2.6 | |
| 3 | Brighton | 19 | 12.5 | +6.5 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 15 | 15.0 | +0.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | |
| 19 |  Nottingham | 6 | 11.3 | -5.3 | |
| 20 | Sunderland | 5 | 10.2 | -5.2 | |
Premier League form tablePremier League home and away tablePremier League xG tablePremier League table predictorPremier League Tabellenrechner
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+