Biggest divergence
Crystal Palace – Ipswich+8.1%
Home win · data 61% vs market 53%
Blind ≥2% leans · 2025-2026Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−24.3u
1079 leans · 43.5% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
The season in numbers
The outlier
+6.9uBlindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-3.8 ptsFulham produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
40%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Crystal Palace – Ipswich2026-09-12 14:00Home win61.3%vs 53.2%▲ +8.1%- Manchester Utd – Manchester City2026-09-13 15:30Under 1.5 HT ✓67.7%vs 61.0%▲ +6.8%
- Sunderland – Arsenal2026-09-12 19:00Under 2.5 ✓61.7%vs 55.9%▲ +5.9%
- Tottenham – Everton2026-09-12 16:30Away win ✓33.2%vs 27.6%▲ +5.6%
- Liverpool – Fulham2026-09-12 14:00Under 1.5 HT ✓64.2%vs 59.2%▲ +5.0%
- Leeds – Newcastle2026-09-14 19:00Away win ✓38.9%vs 34.1%▲ +4.7%
- Brentford – Chelsea2026-09-18 19:00Home win ✓40.8%vs 36.5%▲ +4.3%
- Bournemouth – Brentford2026-09-12 14:00Home win41.4%vs 39.7%▲ +1.7%
- Aston Villa – Nottingham2026-09-12 14:00Home win44.9%vs 43.7%▲ +1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Crystal Palace– Ipswich | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win | 61.3% | 53.2% | ▲ +8.1% | 1.88 | |
| 2 |  Manchester Utd– Manchester City | 2026-09-13 | 15:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 67.7% | 61.0% | ▲ +6.8% | 1.64 | |
| 3 |  Sunderland– Arsenal | 2026-09-12 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 61.7% | 55.9% | ▲ +5.9% | 1.79 | |
| 4 |  Tottenham– Everton | 2026-09-12 | 16:30 | Away win ✓ | 33.2% | 27.6% | ▲ +5.6% | 3.62 | |
| 5 |  Liverpool– Fulham | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 64.2% | 59.2% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.69 | |
| 6 |  Leeds– Newcastle | 2026-09-14 | 19:00 | Away win ✓ | 38.9% | 34.1% | ▲ +4.7% | 2.93 | |
| 7 |  Brentford– Chelsea | 2026-09-18 | 19:00 | Home win ✓ | 40.8% | 36.5% | ▲ +4.3% | 2.74 | |
| 8 |  Bournemouth–Brentford | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win | 41.4% | 39.7% | ▲ +1.7% | 2.52 | |
| 9 |  Aston Villa– Nottingham | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win | 44.9% | 43.7% | ▲ +1.2% | 2.29 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Arsenal win the 2026-2027 title in 56% of them, projecting ~80 points; Manchester City are next at 40%. At the other end, Ipswich finish in the bottom three in 95% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 80 | 70–89 | 56% | 99% | — |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 77 | 68–87 | 40% | 98% | — |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 5 | 63 | 53–73 | 2% | 54% | <1% |
| 4 | Hull | 7 | 61 | 51–70 | <1% | 40% | <1% |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 6 | 58 | 48–68 | <1% | 26% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Tottenham | 1 | 42 | 33–52 | — | <1% | 30% |
| 19 | Coventry | 0 | 33 | 25–42 | — | — | 77% |
| 20 |  Ipswich | 3 | 27 | 19–35 | — | — | 95% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 350 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/premier-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premier League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/premier-league">Premier League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Premier League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +6.9u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: +6.9 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▲ +1.5u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: +1.5 units over 30 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -1.0u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -1.0 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -1.7u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -1.7 units over 30 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -3.2u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -3.2 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -5.0u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -5.0 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -7.2u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -7.2 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | |
| 2 | Arsenal | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | Hull | 7 | 2.4 | +4.6 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | |
| 5 |  Brentford | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | |
| 19 |  Fulham | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | |
| 20 | Coventry | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+