Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctBiggest divergence
Ipswich – Fulham+9.0%
Away win · data 49% vs market 40%
Fastest starters
Chelsea30%
3 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Brentford30%
3 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025-2026Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points43.5%
the model's side won 43.5% of 1079 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+27.0%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +27.0% at market prices across 50 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-5.5 ptsTottenham produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
38%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.6' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Ipswich – Fulham2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 49.0%Implied 40.0%▲ +9.0%- Arsenal – Leeds2026-10-10 11:30Under 1.5 HTModel 74.7%Implied 67.1%▲ +7.6%
- Chelsea – Bournemouth2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 29.3%Implied 22.9%▲ +6.3%
- Manchester Utd – Tottenham2026-10-10 16:30Under 1.5 HTModel 65.4%Implied 61.0%▲ +4.4%
- Aston Villa – Brentford2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 41.0%Implied 38.0%▲ +2.9%
- Liverpool – Manchester City2026-10-11 15:30Away winModel 42.3%Implied 39.4%▲ +2.9%
- Sunderland – Brighton2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 50.0%Implied 49.5%▲ +0.5%
- Crystal Palace – Nottingham2026-10-11 13:00Under 2.5Model 55.1%Implied 55.2%-0.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ipswich– Fulham | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 49.0% | 40.0% | ▲ +9.0% | 2.50 |
| 2 |  Arsenal– Leeds | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 74.7% | 67.1% | ▲ +7.6% | 1.49 |
| 3 |  Chelsea– Bournemouth | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 29.3% | 22.9% | ▲ +6.3% | 4.36 |
| 4 |  Manchester Utd– Tottenham | 2026-10-10 | 16:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 65.4% | 61.0% | ▲ +4.4% | 1.64 |
| 5 |  Aston Villa– Brentford | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 41.0% | 38.0% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.63 |
| 6 |  Liverpool– Manchester City | 2026-10-11 | 15:30 | Away win | 42.3% | 39.4% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.54 |
| 7 |  Sunderland– Brighton | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.0% | 49.5% | ▲ +0.5% | 2.02 |
| 8 |  Crystal Palace– Nottingham | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 55.2% | -0.1% | 1.81 |
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Manchester City win the 2026-2027 title in 56% of them, projecting ~80 points; Arsenal are next at 40%. At the other end, Coventry finish in the bottom three in 93% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 15 | 80 | 71–89 | 56% | 99% | — |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 12 | 78 | 69–87 | 40% | 98% | — |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 9 | 64 | 55–74 | 2% | 60% | <1% |
| 4 |  Brighton | 10 | 60 | 51–70 | <1% | 38% | <1% |
| 5 |  Newcastle | 8 | 57 | 47–66 | <1% | 19% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Tottenham | 2 | 40 | 31–50 | — | <1% | 34% |
| 19 |  Ipswich | 6 | 31 | 23–39 | — | — | 87% |
| 20 | Coventry | 3 | 28 | 21–36 | — | — | 93% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 330 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/premier-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premier League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/premier-league">Premier League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +27.0%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Draws in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out +27.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▲ +1.2%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out +1.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −5.9%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Away wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −5.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −7.1%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −7.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −9.8%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −9.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −13.9%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Home wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −13.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −14.6%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −14.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 | |
| 2 | Arsenal | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | |
| 3 | Brighton | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | |
| 4 |  Brentford | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | |
| 5 |  Leeds | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Coventry | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | |
| 19 |  Fulham | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | |
| 20 | Tottenham | 2 | 7.5 | -5.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+