Premier League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Manchester City (56%), Arsenal (40%), Liverpool (2%). 83 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 5 | 15 | 8071–89 | 56% | 68 from 33 (2.06/game) |
| Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 7869–87 | 40% | 71 from 33 (2.15/game) |
| Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 6455–74 | 2% | 74 from 33 (2.24/game) |
Below 1%: Brighton, Newcastle, Brentford, Chelsea, Hull, Manchester Utd, Leeds, Aston Villa, Everton, Bournemouth, Nottingham, Sunderland, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Tottenham, Ipswich, Coventry.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 330 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).