Premier League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Manchester City (63%), Arsenal (34%). 84 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 7 | 21 | 8273–91 | 63% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Arsenal | 6 | 15 | 7970–87 | 34% | 69 from 32 (2.16/game) |
Below 1%: Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea, Brentford, Aston Villa, Manchester Utd, Leeds, Newcastle, Hull, Everton, Bournemouth, Nottingham, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Sunderland, Tottenham, Coventry, Ipswich.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 315 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).