Biggest divergence
Braga – Estoril+15.6%
Over 1.5 HT · data 57% vs market 41%
Fastest starters
FC Porto27%
3 of their 11 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
FC Porto18%
2 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2025-2026Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−20.4u
931 leans · 44.8% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
The season in numbers
The outlier
+4.7uBlindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-5.0 ptsFamalicao produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
34%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Braga – Estoril2026-09-14 19:45Over 1.5 HT ✓56.6%vs 41.0%▲ +15.6%- Nacional – Alverca2026-09-12 14:30Home win ✓46.7%vs 37.9%▲ +8.8%
- Casa Pia – FC Porto2026-09-12 17:00Under 2.5 ✓56.9%vs 48.5%▲ +8.4%
- Famalicao – Sporting CP2026-09-13 19:30Under 2.5 ✓55.0%vs 49.0%▲ +6.0%
- Benfica – Gil Vicente2026-09-13 17:00Away win ✓11.5%vs 5.5%▲ +6.0%
- Rio Ave – Estrela2026-09-14 17:45Over 2.5 ✓53.9%vs 49.0%▲ +4.8%
- Arouca – Santa Clara2026-09-13 17:00Over 2.5 ✓46.4%vs 43.7%▲ +2.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Braga– Estoril | 2026-09-14 | 19:45 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 56.6% | 41.0% | ▲ +15.6% | 2.44 | |
| 2 |  Nacional– Alverca | 2026-09-12 | 14:30 | Home win ✓ | 46.7% | 37.9% | ▲ +8.8% | 2.64 | |
| 3 |  Casa Pia– FC Porto | 2026-09-12 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.9% | 48.5% | ▲ +8.4% | 2.06 | |
| 4 |  Famalicao– Sporting CP | 2026-09-13 | 19:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.0% | 49.0% | ▲ +6.0% | 2.04 | |
| 5 |  Benfica– Gil Vicente | 2026-09-13 | 17:00 | Away win ✓ | 11.5% | 5.5% | ▲ +6.0% | 18.15 | |
| 6 |  Rio Ave– Estrela | 2026-09-14 | 17:45 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 53.9% | 49.0% | ▲ +4.8% | 2.04 | |
| 7 |  Arouca– Santa Clara | 2026-09-13 | 17:00 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 46.4% | 43.7% | ▲ +2.7% | 2.29 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 12 AugWe simulate the remaining Liga Portugal schedule 10,000 times a day. Sporting CP win the 2026-2027 title in 51% of them, projecting ~74 points; FC Porto are next at 27%. At the other end, Casa Pia finish in the bottom three in 65% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 1 | 74 | 66–82 | 51% | 99% | — |
| 2 | FC Porto | 3 | 71 | 62–80 | 27% | 97% | — |
| 3 | Benfica | 1 | 69 | 61–78 | 20% | 95% | — |
| 4 | Braga | 1 | 58 | 49–67 | 1% | 51% | <1% |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 54 | 45–63 | <1% | 25% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Alverca | 0 | 35 | 26–44 | — | <1% | 37% |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 0 | 31 | 23–40 | — | <1% | 58% |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 0 | 30 | 22–39 | — | — | 65% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 297 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/portugal/liga-portugal/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Liga Portugal live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/portugal/liga-portugal">Liga Portugal stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Liga Portugal match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +4.7u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: +4.7 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -2.4u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: -2.4 units over 44 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -2.6u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: -2.6 units over 44 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -3.3u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: -3.3 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -5.2u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: -5.2 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -6.5u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: -6.5 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -8.2u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Liga Portugal match in 2026-2027: -8.2 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 15 | 12.1 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | Benfica | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 | |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 | |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Alverca | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | |
| 17 | Estoril | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 | |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €291 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+