Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +19.9% at market prices across 62 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Estoril produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Arouca – Estrela2026-10-11 19:30Over 2.5Model 66.5%Implied 52.6%▲ +13.8%- Famalicao – Alverca2026-10-12 19:15BTTS: NoModel 60.5%Implied 53.5%▲ +7.0%
- Braga – Sporting CP2026-10-09 19:15Over 2.5Model 58.1%Implied 51.8%▲ +6.3%
- Rio Ave – Nacional2026-10-11 14:30Away winModel 37.3%Implied 31.7%▲ +5.6%
- Casa Pia – Santa Clara2026-10-10 14:30Under 2.5Model 66.8%Implied 63.3%▲ +3.5%
- Moreirense – Gil Vicente2026-10-09 17:45Over 1.5 HTModel 31.1%Implied 31.3%-0.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arouca– Estrela | 2026-10-11 | 19:30 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 52.6% | ▲ +13.8% | 1.90 |
| 2 |  Famalicao– Alverca | 2026-10-12 | 19:15 | BTTS: No | 60.5% | 53.5% | ▲ +7.0% | 1.87 |
| 3 |  Braga– Sporting CP | 2026-10-09 | 19:15 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 51.8% | ▲ +6.3% | 1.93 |
| 4 |  Rio Ave– Nacional | 2026-10-11 | 14:30 | Away win | 37.3% | 31.7% | ▲ +5.6% | 3.15 |
| 5 |  Casa Pia– Santa Clara | 2026-10-10 | 14:30 | Under 2.5 | 66.8% | 63.3% | ▲ +3.5% | 1.58 |
| 6 |  Moreirense– Gil Vicente | 2026-10-09 | 17:45 | Over 1.5 HT | 31.1% | 31.3% | -0.3% | 3.19 |
Add Liga Portugal fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Liga Portugal schedule 10,000 times a day. FC Porto win the 2026-2027 title in 58% of them, projecting ~80 points; Benfica are next at 26%. At the other end, Casa Pia finish in the bottom three in 80% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: FC Porto's title chance down 2 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 21 | 80 | 72–87 | ▼58% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 75 | 68–83 | 26% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 15 | 73 | 65–81 | ▲16% | 99% | — |
| 4 | Braga | 11 | 58 | 50–67 | <1% | 56% | <1% |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 11 | 52 | 44–60 | — | 16% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Nacional | 4 | 33 | 25–41 | — | <1% | 41% |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 4 | 29 | 21–37 | — | — | 67% |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 27 | 19–34 | — | — | 80% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 244 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Liga Portugal match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 21 | 15.9 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 17.0 | -1.0 | |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 15 | 16.5 | -1.5 | |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 15 | 9.8 | +5.2 | |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Rio Ave | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | |
| 18 |  Estoril | 2 | 8.6 | -6.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+