Liga Portugal predicted table 2026/27
Portugal · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 October 2026
- FC Porto are the most likely Liga Portugal champions, finishing first in 55% of 10,000 simulations (projected 80 points; Benfica next on 26%).
- Casa Pia (87%) is more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Braga sit 9th today but are projected to finish 5th — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 24 | 8072–88 | 55% | >99% | 0% | 1st (55%) |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 19 | 7669–83 | 26% | >99% | 0% | 2nd (38%) |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 18 | 7567–82 | 19% | >99% | 0% | 3rd (46%) |
| 4 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 14 | 5446–62 | <1% | 27% | <1% | 4th (26%) |
| 5 | Braga | 8 | 11 | 5446–62 | <1% | 27% | <1% | 4th (26%) |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 8 | 18 | 5344–61 | <1% | 19% | <1% | 5th (20%) |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 14 | 5243–60 | <1% | 16% | <1% | 6th (17%) |
| 8 | Arouca | 8 | 14 | 4839–56 | 0% | 6% | <1% | 8th (15%) |
| 9 | Famalicao | 8 | 7 | 4537–53 | 0% | 3% | 1% | 9th (16%) |
| 10 | Alverca | 8 | 11 | 4335–51 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 10th (15%) |
| 11 | Estrela | 8 | 10 | 4032–48 | 0% | <1% | 8% | 12th (15%) |
| 12 | Maritimo | 8 | 8 | 3931–47 | 0% | <1% | 11% | 12th (14%) |
| 13 | Moreirense | 8 | 8 | 3628–44 | 0% | <1% | 21% | 13th (14%) |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 5 | 3426–42 | 0% | <1% | 29% | 14th (14%) |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 7 | 3224–39 | 0% | <1% | 47% | 17th (18%) |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 2 | 3224–40 | 0% | <1% | 44% | 17th (17%) |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 4 | 3123–39 | 0% | 0% | 49% | 17th (20%) |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 8 | 4 | 2518–32 | 0% | 0% | 87% | 18th (56%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 234 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
