Liga Portugal title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Portugal · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: FC Porto (55%), Benfica (26%), Sporting CP (19%). 82 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 8 | 24 | 8072–88 | 55% | 58 from 26 (2.23/game) |
| Benfica | 8 | 19 | 7669–83 | 26% | 63 from 26 (2.42/game) |
| Sporting CP | 8 | 18 | 7567–82 | 19% | 64 from 26 (2.46/game) |
Below 1%: Academico Viseu, Braga, Santa Clara, Gil Vicente, Arouca, Famalicao, Alverca, Estrela, Maritimo, Moreirense, Vitoria Guimaraes, Rio Ave, Estoril, Nacional, Casa Pia.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 234 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).