LaLiga 2026-2027 — Stats, Fixtures & Data vs Market

The season in numbers

The outlier

+6.4u

Blindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.

Most underrated by results

-4.4 pts

Villarreal produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →

Fast starts

46%

Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.5' on average.

Upcoming fixtures — data vs market

all leagues →

#			Time	Market		Implied		Odds
1	Real Madrid–Rayo VallecanoLaLiga	2026-09-12	19:00	FT U3.5 ✓	67.4%	46.1%	▲ +21.3%	2.17
2	Villarreal–BetisLaLiga	2026-09-14	19:00	Over 1.5 HT ✓	53.2%	43.3%	▲ +9.9%	2.31
3	Levante–BarcelonaLaLiga	2026-09-13	14:15	Home win ✓	15.8%	6.1%	▲ +9.7%	16.30
4	Elche–Real MadridLaLiga	2026-09-15	19:30	FT U3.5 ✓	61.9%	52.6%	▲ +9.2%	1.90
5	Levante–Ath BilbaoLaLiga	2026-09-16	19:30	Home win ✓	38.7%	31.4%	▲ +7.2%	3.18
6	Rayo Vallecano–EspanyolLaLiga	2026-09-15	17:00	Under 2.5 ✓	60.2%	53.2%	▲ +7.0%	1.88
7	Ath Bilbao–ElcheLaLiga	2026-09-12	16:30	Away win ✓	20.2%	13.5%	▲ +6.7%	7.42
8	Espanyol–ElcheLaLiga	2026-09-18	19:00	Over 2.5 ✓	51.9%	46.9%	▲ +5.0%	2.13
9	Sevilla–ValenciaLaLiga	2026-09-11	19:00	Away win ✓	27.1%	22.2%	▲ +4.8%	4.50
10	Betis–GetafeLaLiga	2026-09-17	17:00	BTTS: No ✓	62.3%	59.2%	▲ +3.1%	1.69
11	Alaves–ValenciaLaLiga	2026-09-15	18:00	Home win ✓	49.2%	46.9%	▲ +2.2%	2.13
12	Atl. Madrid–OsasunaLaLiga	2026-09-16	17:00	Under 1.5 HT ✓	68.3%	66.2%	▲ +2.1%	1.51
13	Osasuna–EspanyolLaLiga	2026-09-12	14:15	Home win	47.4%	45.9%	▲ +1.6%	2.18
14	Real Sociedad–Atl. MadridLaLiga	2026-09-13	19:00	Under 2.5	46.6%	45.0%	▲ +1.6%	2.22

Where the season is heading

10,000 simulations · updated 17 Aug

We simulate the remaining LaLiga schedule 10,000 times a day. Barcelona win the 2026-2027 title in 64% of them, projecting ~73 points; Real Madrid are next at 29%. At the other end, Levante finish in the bottom three in 48% of simulations.

#	Team	Pts now	Proj. pts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3
1	Barcelona	0	73	64–82	64%	99%	—
2	Real Madrid	0	68	59–77	29%	97%	—
3	Atl. Madrid	0	59	49–68	4%	71%	<1%
4	Villarreal	1	56	46–65	2%	55%	<1%
5	Betis	0	50	40–60	<1%	24%	3%
· · ·
16	Elche	0	40	31–49	—	2%	30%
17	Getafe	0	38	29–47	—	<1%	36%
18	Levante	0	36	27–46	—	<1%	48%

Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 302 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.

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