Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctBiggest divergence
Barcelona – Getafe+24.7%
FT U3.5 · data 67% vs market 43%
Fastest starters
Espanyol30%
3 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Elche45%
5 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025-2026Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points43.9%
the model's side won 43.9% of 947 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+9.4%HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +9.4% at market prices across 69 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-3.8 ptsVillarreal produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
46%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Barcelona – Getafe2026-10-10 16:30FT U3.5Model 67.3%Implied 42.6%▲ +24.7%- Rayo Vallecano – Ath Bilbao2026-10-10 12:00Under 2.5Model 63.1%Implied 52.1%▲ +11.0%
- Levante – Sevilla2026-10-12 19:00Home winModel 45.7%Implied 38.2%▲ +7.5%
- Elche – Celta Vigo2026-10-11 12:00Over 2.5Model 55.1%Implied 48.5%▲ +6.6%
- Alaves – Atl. Madrid2026-10-10 14:15Under 1.5 HTModel 75.0%Implied 69.4%▲ +5.6%
- Real Madrid – Villarreal2026-10-10 19:00FT U3.5Model 51.7%Implied 48.8%▲ +2.9%
- Betis – Osasuna2026-10-11 16:30Under 2.5Model 49.7%Implied 48.5%▲ +1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona– Getafe | 2026-10-10 | 16:30 | FT U3.5 | 67.3% | 42.6% | ▲ +24.7% | 2.35 |
| 2 |  Rayo Vallecano– Ath Bilbao | 2026-10-10 | 12:00 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 52.1% | ▲ +11.0% | 1.92 |
| 3 |  Levante– Sevilla | 2026-10-12 | 19:00 | Home win | 45.7% | 38.2% | ▲ +7.5% | 2.62 |
| 4 |  Elche– Celta Vigo | 2026-10-11 | 12:00 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 48.5% | ▲ +6.6% | 2.06 |
| 5 |  Alaves– Atl. Madrid | 2026-10-10 | 14:15 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.0% | 69.4% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.44 |
| 6 |  Real Madrid– Villarreal | 2026-10-10 | 19:00 | FT U3.5 | 51.7% | 48.8% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.05 |
| 7 |  Betis– Osasuna | 2026-10-11 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 49.7% | 48.5% | ▲ +1.2% | 2.06 |
Add LaLiga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining LaLiga schedule 10,000 times a day. Barcelona win the 2026-2027 title in 88% of them, projecting ~91 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Malaga finish in the bottom three in 89% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 21 | 91 | 82–98 | 88% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 15 | 79 | 71–88 | 10% | 99% | — |
| 3 | Atl. Madrid | 16 | 73 | 64–81 | 2% | 92% | — |
| 4 |  Betis | 16 | 65 | 56–74 | <1% | 56% | — |
| 5 |  Villarreal | 8 | 59 | 50–68 | <1% | 25% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Valencia | 4 | 41 | 33–50 | — | <1% | 31% |
| 19 | Racing Santander | 7 | 36 | 28–44 | — | <1% | 64% |
| 20 | Malaga | 3 | 30 | 22–38 | — | — | 89% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 311 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every LaLiga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Over 1.5▲ +9.4%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out +9.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −1.0%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
Home wins in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out −1.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −3.3%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out −3.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −5.1%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
Away wins in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out −5.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −10.4%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
Draws in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out −10.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −20.1%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out −20.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −26.1%
at market prices · 69 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in LaLiga, 2026-2027: across 69 matches the market's prices paid out −26.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 21 | 17.6 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | Atl. Madrid | 16 | 12.1 | +3.9 | |
| 3 | Betis | 16 | 10.0 | +6.0 | |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 15 | 16.4 | -1.4 | |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Elche | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | |
| 19 | Valencia | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | |
| 20 | Malaga | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+