The season in numbers
Blindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
PSG produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Brest – PSG2026-09-13 18:45
Home win ✓18.2%vs 9.4%▲ +8.8%Le Havre – Angers2026-09-12 18:45
Under 2.5 ✓65.5%vs 57.1%▲ +8.3%Strasbourg – Monaco2026-09-12 15:15
Home win ✓39.3%vs 31.5%▲ +7.7%Monaco – Lens2026-09-18 18:45
Under 1.5 HT ✓64.6%vs 61.0%▲ +3.6%Lorient – Toulouse2026-09-12 18:45
Home win40.0%vs 38.9%▲ +1.1%Auxerre – Nice2026-09-12 18:45
Under 2.553.9%vs 52.9%▲ +1.0%Paris FC – Lyon2026-09-12 18:45
Under 1.5 HT66.3%vs 65.4%▲ +1.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brest– PSG | 2026-09-13 | 18:45 | Home win ✓ | 18.2% | 9.4% | ▲ +8.8% | 10.62 | |
| 2 | Le Havre– Angers | 2026-09-12 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 65.5% | 57.1% | ▲ +8.3% | 1.75 | |
| 3 | Strasbourg– Monaco | 2026-09-12 | 15:15 | Home win ✓ | 39.3% | 31.5% | ▲ +7.7% | 3.17 | |
| 4 | Monaco– Lens | 2026-09-18 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 64.6% | 61.0% | ▲ +3.6% | 1.64 | |
| 5 | Lorient– Toulouse | 2026-09-12 | 18:45 | Home win | 40.0% | 38.9% | ▲ +1.1% | 2.57 | |
| 6 | Auxerre– Nice | 2026-09-12 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 52.9% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.89 | |
| 7 | Paris FC– Lyon | 2026-09-12 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.3% | 65.4% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.53 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Ligue 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. PSG win the 2026-2027 title in 55% of them, projecting ~67 points; Monaco are next at 15%. At the other end, Troyes finish in the bottom three in 73% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 2 | 67 | 58–75 | 55% | 92% | — |
| 2 | Monaco | 9 | 60 | 51–69 | 15% | 65% | <1% |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 59 | 50–68 | 12% | 59% | <1% |
| 4 | Lyon | 7 | 55 | 46–65 | 5% | 38% | <1% |
| 5 | Lens | 3 | 55 | 46–64 | 5% | 37% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Le Havre | 1 | 33 | 24–41 | <1% | <1% | 56% |
| 17 | Angers | 3 | 32 | 24–40 | — | <1% | 61% |
| 18 | Troyes | 4 | 30 | 22–38 | — | <1% | 73% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 279 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/france/ligue-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Ligue 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/france/ligue-1">Ligue 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Ligue 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 9 | 3.8 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | Lyon | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | |
| 3 | Paris FC | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | |
| 4 | Lille | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | |
| 5 | Rennes | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Le Havre | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | |
| 17 | Toulouse | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | |
| 18 | Auxerre | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+














Lille
Rennes