Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctBiggest divergence
Lille – Le Havre+12.2%
Under 2.5 · data 57% vs market 44%
Fastest starters
Lyon10%
1 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Strasbourg50%
5 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025-2026Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points41.5%
the model's side won 41.5% of 793 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+9.3%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +9.3% at market prices across 45 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-5.0 ptsLens produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Lille – Le Havre2026-10-10 15:15Under 2.5Model 56.7%Implied 44.4%▲ +12.2%- Brest – Angers2026-10-10 18:45Under 2.5Model 55.2%Implied 48.3%▲ +6.9%
- Rennes – Auxerre2026-10-11 15:15Away winModel 21.9%Implied 15.4%▲ +6.4%
- Lens – Lyon2026-10-09 18:45FT U3.5Model 67.9%Implied 62.1%▲ +5.8%
- Nice – Strasbourg2026-10-11 13:00Away winModel 37.4%Implied 34.4%▲ +3.0%
- Lorient – Paris FC2026-10-10 18:45Home winModel 35.3%Implied 32.4%▲ +2.9%
- Monaco – Toulouse2026-10-10 18:45Under 1.5 HTModel 66.0%Implied 64.1%▲ +1.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille– Le Havre | 2026-10-10 | 15:15 | Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 44.4% | ▲ +12.2% | 2.25 |
| 2 |  Brest– Angers | 2026-10-10 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 48.3% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.07 |
| 3 |  Rennes– Auxerre | 2026-10-11 | 15:15 | Away win | 21.9% | 15.4% | ▲ +6.4% | 6.49 |
| 4 |  Lens– Lyon | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | FT U3.5 | 67.9% | 62.1% | ▲ +5.8% | 1.61 |
| 5 |  Nice– Strasbourg | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Away win | 37.4% | 34.4% | ▲ +3.0% | 2.91 |
| 6 |  Lorient– Paris FC | 2026-10-10 | 18:45 | Home win | 35.3% | 32.4% | ▲ +2.9% | 3.09 |
| 7 |  Monaco– Toulouse | 2026-10-10 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.0% | 64.1% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.56 |
Add Ligue 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctWe simulate the remaining Ligue 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. PSG win the 2026-2027 title in 68% of them, projecting ~70 points; Monaco are next at 14%. At the other end, Troyes finish in the bottom three in 94% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSG | 8 | 70 | 61–78 | 68% | 97% | — |
| 2 | Monaco | 13 | 62 | 53–70 | 14% | 75% | <1% |
| 3 | Lyon | 11 | 58 | 49–67 | 7% | 57% | <1% |
| 4 | Lille | 10 | 58 | 49–66 | 5% | 54% | <1% |
| 5 | Rennes | 10 | 53 | 44–62 | 1% | 27% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Angers | 7 | 34 | 26–42 | — | <1% | 51% |
| 17 | Le Havre | 2 | 31 | 23–39 | — | <1% | 68% |
| 18 | Troyes | 4 | 25 | 17–32 | — | — | 94% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 261 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/france/ligue-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Ligue 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/france/ligue-1">Ligue 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Ligue 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +9.3%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
Draws in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out +9.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▲ +0.9%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out +0.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +0.2%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out +0.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −4.7%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
Away wins in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out −4.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −12.2%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
Home wins in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out −12.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −14.9%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out −14.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −17.8%
at market prices · 45 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Ligue 1, 2026-2027: across 45 matches the market's prices paid out −17.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 13 | 7.2 | +5.8 | |
| 2 | Lyon | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | |
| 3 | Paris FC | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | |
| 4 | Lille | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | |
| 5 | Rennes | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Troyes | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | |
| 17 |  Marseille | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | |
| 18 | Le Havre | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+