Fastest starters
Le Havre25%
8 of their 32 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Lille38%
20 of their 52 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2024-2025Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−21.9u
267 leans · 43.1% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
🏆
PSG are 2025-2026 champions — 76 pts
Their xPTS said 78.0: delivered even more than the market priced.
2026-27
next season soon
The season in numbers
The outlier
+101.5uBlindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-11.7 ptsMetz produced performances worth 12 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
34%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.7' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Ligue 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 76 | 78.0 | -2.0 | champions — market expected more |
| 2 | Lens | 70 | 58.1 | +11.9 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Lille | 61 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdown
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Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+