Ligue 1 2023-2024 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Brest	34	61	47.3	+13.7Outperforming ++	9	+3.6	+10.1	1:2 vs Reims (+2.0)	0:2 vs Monaco (-1.4)
2	Monaco	34	67	57.2	+9.8Outperforming ++	4	+1.4	+8.4	2:3 vs Nice (+1.8)	1:2 vs Toulouse (-2.0)
3	PSG	34	76	70.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	1	-4.9	+10.3	1:2 vs Nice (+1.8)	1:3 vs Toulouse (-2.3)
4	Lyon	34	53	49.2	+3.8Outperforming	8	-2.7	+6.5	0:1 vs Monaco (+2.1)	1:2 vs Clermont (-1.8)
5	Toulouse	34	43	40.0	+3.0Outperforming	12	-7.3	+10.3	1:3 vs PSG (+2.4)	1:2 vs Le Havre (-1.7)
6	Lille	34	59	57.2	+1.8On expectation	3	+5.0	-3.2	2:0 vs Monaco (+1.6)	1:2 vs Reims (-1.8)
7	Nice	34	55	54.1	+0.9On expectation	6	+0.3	+0.7	2:3 vs PSG (+2.2)	1:2 vs Nantes (-1.9)
8	Strasbourg	34	39	38.4	+0.7On expectation	13	+1.6	-0.9	1:3 vs Nantes (+1.9)	1:3 vs Lorient (-1.9)
9	Reims	34	47	47.3	-0.3On expectation	10	+0.4	-0.7	1:3 vs Monaco (+2.2)	2:3 vs Toulouse (-1.8)
10	Montpellier	34	42	42.3	-0.3On expectation	11	-6.1	+5.8	1:2 vs Nice (+2.1)	1:3 vs Brest (-1.5)
11	Metz	34	29	31.2	-2.2Underperforming	18	-6.2	+4.0	0:1 vs Lens (+2.3)	1:2 vs Lorient (-1.7)
12	Le Havre	34	32	34.8	-2.8Underperforming	15	+0.2	-3.0	1:2 vs Toulouse (+2.0)	0:1 vs Metz (-1.6)
13	Nantes	34	33	37.2	-4.2Underperforming	14	-9.3	+5.1	1:2 vs Nice (+2.1)	0:2 vs Metz (-1.8)
14	Lens	34	51	55.6	-4.6Underperforming	5	+0.0	-4.6	0:3 vs Lyon (+1.7)	0:1 vs Metz (-2.1)
15	Lorient	34	29	33.8	-4.8Underperforming	16	-3.7	-1.0	1:2 vs Rennes (+2.4)	2:3 vs Metz (-1.7)
16	Rennes	34	46	52.4	-6.4Underperforming −−	7	-4.6	-1.8	2:3 vs Lyon (+1.7)	1:2 vs Lorient (-2.1)
17	Marseille	34	50	57.4	-7.4Underperforming −−	2	+4.2	-11.6	2:1 vs Lens (+1.4)	1:0 vs Reims (-1.7)
18	Clermont	34	25	33.7	-8.7Underperforming −−	17	-5.6	-3.1	1:2 vs Lyon (+2.0)	0:1 vs Nantes (-1.8)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Brest	34	61	47.3	+13.7Outperforming ++	9	+3.6	+10.1	1:2 vs Reims (+2.0)	0:2 vs Monaco (-1.4)
2	Monaco	34	67	57.2	+9.8Outperforming ++	4	+1.4	+8.4	2:3 vs Nice (+1.8)	1:2 vs Toulouse (-2.0)
3	PSG	34	76	70.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	1	-4.9	+10.3	1:2 vs Nice (+1.8)	1:3 vs Toulouse (-2.3)
4	Lyon	34	53	49.2	+3.8Outperforming	8	-2.7	+6.5	0:1 vs Monaco (+2.1)	1:2 vs Clermont (-1.8)
5	Toulouse	34	43	40.0	+3.0Outperforming	12	-7.3	+10.3	1:3 vs PSG (+2.4)	1:2 vs Le Havre (-1.7)
6	Lille	34	59	57.2	+1.8On expectation	3	+5.0	-3.2	2:0 vs Monaco (+1.6)	1:2 vs Reims (-1.8)
7	Nice	34	55	54.1	+0.9On expectation	6	+0.3	+0.7	2:3 vs PSG (+2.2)	1:2 vs Nantes (-1.9)
8	Strasbourg	34	39	38.4	+0.7On expectation	13	+1.6	-0.9	1:3 vs Nantes (+1.9)	1:3 vs Lorient (-1.9)
9	Reims	34	47	47.3	-0.3On expectation	10	+0.4	-0.7	1:3 vs Monaco (+2.2)	2:3 vs Toulouse (-1.8)
10	Montpellier	34	42	42.3	-0.3On expectation	11	-6.1	+5.8	1:2 vs Nice (+2.1)	1:3 vs Brest (-1.5)
11	Metz	34	29	31.2	-2.2Underperforming	18	-6.2	+4.0	0:1 vs Lens (+2.3)	1:2 vs Lorient (-1.7)
12	Le Havre	34	32	34.8	-2.8Underperforming	15	+0.2	-3.0	1:2 vs Toulouse (+2.0)	0:1 vs Metz (-1.6)
13	Nantes	34	33	37.2	-4.2Underperforming	14	-9.3	+5.1	1:2 vs Nice (+2.1)	0:2 vs Metz (-1.8)
14	Lens	34	51	55.6	-4.6Underperforming	5	+0.0	-4.6	0:3 vs Lyon (+1.7)	0:1 vs Metz (-2.1)
15	Lorient	34	29	33.8	-4.8Underperforming	16	-3.7	-1.0	1:2 vs Rennes (+2.4)	2:3 vs Metz (-1.7)
16	Rennes	34	46	52.4	-6.4Underperforming −−	7	-4.6	-1.8	2:3 vs Lyon (+1.7)	1:2 vs Lorient (-2.1)
17	Marseille	34	50	57.4	-7.4Underperforming −−	2	+4.2	-11.6	2:1 vs Lens (+1.4)	1:0 vs Reims (-1.7)
18	Clermont	34	25	33.7	-8.7Underperforming −−	17	-5.6	-3.1	1:2 vs Lyon (+2.0)	0:1 vs Nantes (-1.8)