Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctThe season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +20.1% at market prices across 36 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Hoffenheim produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 20.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Augsburg – Bayern Munich2026-10-10 13:30FT U3.5Model 44.1%Implied 35.3%▲ +8.8%- Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen2026-10-10 13:30FT U3.5Model 64.4%Implied 57.5%▲ +6.9%
- Dortmund – Werder Bremen2026-10-09 18:30FT U3.5Model 58.8%Implied 54.6%▲ +4.1%
- Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV2026-10-10 13:30Away winModel 19.1%Implied 15.5%▲ +3.6%
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt2026-10-10 16:30FT U3.5Model 50.9%Implied 48.3%▲ +2.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Augsburg– Bayern Munich | 2026-10-10 | 13:30 | FT U3.5 | 44.1% | 35.3% | ▲ +8.8% | 2.83 |
| 2 |  Mainz– Bayer Leverkusen | 2026-10-10 | 13:30 | FT U3.5 | 64.4% | 57.5% | ▲ +6.9% | 1.74 |
| 3 |  Dortmund– Werder Bremen | 2026-10-09 | 18:30 | FT U3.5 | 58.8% | 54.6% | ▲ +4.1% | 1.83 |
| 4 |  Hoffenheim– Hamburger SV | 2026-10-10 | 13:30 | Away win | 19.1% | 15.5% | ▲ +3.6% | 6.45 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig– Eintracht Frankfurt | 2026-10-10 | 16:30 | FT U3.5 | 50.9% | 48.3% | ▲ +2.6% | 2.07 |
Add Bundesliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Bayern Munich win the 2026-2027 title in 90% of them, projecting ~81 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Union Berlin finish in the bottom three in 66% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 10 | 81 | 74–88 | 90% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Dortmund | 12 | 69 | 60–77 | 8% | 95% | — |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 61 | 53–70 | 1% | 75% | <1% |
| 4 | Elversberg | 7 | 56 | 47–64 | <1% | 40% | <1% |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 6 | 55 | 46–64 | <1% | 35% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | B. Monchengladbach | 0 | 34 | 25–42 | — | <1% | 48% |
| 17 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 31 | 23–39 | — | <1% | 65% |
| 18 |  Union Berlin | 1 | 31 | 23–40 | — | <1% | 66% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 270 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Bundesliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 | |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 | |
| 3 |  Freiburg | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | |
| 4 |  Augsburg | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 15 |  Stuttgart | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+