Fastest starters
B. Monchengladbach19%
8 of their 42 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Stuttgart35%
25 of their 71 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2024-2025Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−11.9u
335 leans · 48.7% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
🏆
Bayern Munich are 2025-2026 champions — 89 pts
Their xPTS said 80.7: a title won, outperforming the market.
2026-27
next season soon
The season in numbers
The outlier
+9.5uBlindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 4 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-14.4 ptsWolfsburg produced performances worth 14 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
43%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.6' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Bundesliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 89 | 80.7 | +8.3 | champions — earned it |
| 2 |  Dortmund | 73 | 60.9 | +12.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdown
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Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
Heidenheim
St. Pauli
