The season in numbers
The outlier
+6.0uBlindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-3.0 ptsHoffenheim produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
39%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 18.2' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Bundesliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +6.0u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: +6.0 units over 18 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▲ +2.4u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: +2.4 units over 18 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▲ +1.2u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: +1.2 units over 18 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -2.5u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: -2.5 units over 18 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -2.9u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: -2.9 units over 18 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -3.2u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: -3.2 units over 18 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -6.5u
18 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Bundesliga match in 2026-2027: -6.5 units over 18 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Augsburg | 6 | 2.5 | +3.5 | |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | |
| 3 |  Dortmund | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | |
| 4 | Elversberg | 6 | 1.8 | +4.2 | |
| 5 |  Mainz | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 15 |  Union Berlin | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | |
| 16 |  Hoffenheim | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | |
| 17 |  Hamburger SV | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+