Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2020-2021 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 61 | 51.0 | +10.1Outperforming ++ | 5 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 0:1 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Mainz (-1.8) |
2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 60 | 50.9 | +9.2Outperforming ++ | 6 | +9.8 | -0.7 | 1:2 vs Dortmund (+2.1) | 4:3 vs Schalke (-2.5) |
3 | Union Berlin | 34 | 50 | 43.3 | +6.7Outperforming ++ | 9 | +8.3 | -1.6 | 2:1 vs Dortmund (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Augsburg (-1.6) |
4 | Freiburg | 34 | 45 | 40.4 | +4.6Outperforming | 11 | +4.3 | +0.3 | 2:1 vs Dortmund (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Mainz (-1.8) |
5 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 35 | 31.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 16 | +3.0 | +0.6 | 1:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Augsburg (-1.4) |
6 | Augsburg | 34 | 36 | 33.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 15 | +3.7 | -1.1 | 2:0 vs Dortmund (+2.4) | 1:0 vs Schalke (-1.4) |
7 | Mainz | 34 | 39 | 36.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 12 | -4.1 | +6.3 | 2:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Augsburg (-1.7) |
8 | Stuttgart | 34 | 45 | 44.1 | +0.9On expectation | 8 | -3.0 | +3.9 | 1:5 vs Dortmund (+2.4) | 3:0 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-1.8) |
9 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 78 | 78.1 | -0.1On expectation | 1 | +2.3 | -2.4 | 0:1 vs RB Leipzig (+1.6) | 4:1 vs Hoffenheim (-2.5) |
10 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 | 66.9 | -1.9On expectation | 3 | +1.6 | -3.5 | 1:0 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+1.3) | 3:2 vs Mainz (-2.2) |
11 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 43 | 46.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 7 | +1.5 | -4.8 | 4:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.6) | 4:0 vs Schalke (-1.9) |
12 | FC Koln | 34 | 33 | 36.6 | -3.6Underperforming | 13 | -6.2 | +2.6 | 1:2 vs Dortmund (+2.6) | 1:4 vs Freiburg (-1.7) |
13 | Dortmund | 34 | 64 | 68.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 2 | -1.4 | -2.6 | 1:3 vs RB Leipzig (+1.7) | 1:2 vs FC Koln (-2.5) |
14 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 52 | 56.5 | -4.5Underperforming | 4 | -0.7 | -3.7 | 2:1 vs Dortmund (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-2.2) |
15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 31 | 36.4 | -5.4Underperforming −− | 14 | -5.6 | +0.2 | 2:1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.1) | 1:4 vs Hertha Berlin (-1.4) |
16 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 35 | 42.9 | -7.9Underperforming −− | 10 | -3.2 | -4.7 | 3:0 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-1.8) |
17 | Schalke | 34 | 16 | 27.5 | -11.5Underperforming −− | 17 | -3.7 | -7.8 | 4:3 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5) |