Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7Outperforming | 3 | +1.3 | +3.4 | 0:1 vs Stuttgart (+1.7) | 3:0 vs Paderborn (0.6) |
2 | Elversberg | 4 | 7 | 3.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 16 | +1.9 | +1.9 | 3:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Bayern Munich (-0.3) |
3 | Freiburg | 4 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2Outperforming | 6 | +2.3 | +0.9 | 0:1 vs Paderborn (+1.3) | 2:2 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.4) |
4 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 13 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 3:1 vs RB Leipzig (+2.0) | 4:1 vs Freiburg (-0.9) |
5 | Augsburg | 4 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 11 | +1.5 | +0.8 | 1:4 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.0) | 3:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.2) |
6 | Paderborn | 4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.8On expectation | 17 | +1.0 | -0.2 | 3:1 vs Hoffenheim (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Freiburg (-1.0) |
7 | Schalke | 4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4On expectation | 12 | -0.1 | +0.5 | 1:3 vs Union Berlin (+1.8) | 3:0 vs Augsburg (-1.2) |
8 | Mainz | 4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0On expectation | 5 | -2.9 | +2.9 | 0:5 vs Hamburger SV (+1.5) | 1:3 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.8) |
9 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3On expectation | 1 | +0.7 | -1.0 | 5:1 vs Stuttgart (+0.5) | 0:0 vs Schalke (-1.5) |
10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5On expectation | 8 | -2.2 | +1.7 | 1:3 vs Mainz (+2.1) | 1:4 vs Augsburg (-1.8) |
11 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7On expectation | 14 | +0.4 | -1.1 | 2:1 vs FC Koln (+1.7) | 0:5 vs Mainz (-1.3) |
12 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8On expectation | 2 | +2.0 | -2.8 | 2:0 vs RB Leipzig (+1.2) | 3:2 vs Elversberg (-2.0) |
13 | FC Koln | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9On expectation | 10 | +1.2 | -2.1 | 3:2 vs Hoffenheim (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Hamburger SV (-1.4) |
14 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1On expectation | 4 | +1.7 | -2.8 | 3:0 vs B. Monchengladbach (+1.0) | 3:1 vs Werder Bremen (-1.8) |
15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 9 | -0.6 | -1.6 | 4:1 vs FC Koln (+0.9) | 0:1 vs Dortmund (-1.5) |
16 | Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 15 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 7:0 vs Bayern Munich (+-0.1) | 1:3 vs Schalke (-1.5) |
17 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 7 | +0.1 | -3.4 | 2:1 vs Stuttgart (+1.5) | 3:1 vs Paderborn (-1.8) |