Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Freiburg | 5 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2Outperforming | 5 | +3.3 | +0.9 | 0:1 vs Paderborn (+1.3) | 2:2 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.4) |
2 | Dortmund | 5 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 2 | +0.0 | +3.4 | 0:1 vs Stuttgart (+1.7) | 2:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.3) |
3 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9Outperforming | 13 | +3.5 | -0.6 | 3:1 vs RB Leipzig (+2.0) | 4:1 vs Freiburg (-0.9) |
4 | Augsburg | 5 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9Outperforming | 12 | +2.1 | +0.8 | 1:4 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.0) | 3:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.2) |
5 | Elversberg | 5 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 15 | +1.9 | +0.6 | 3:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Union Berlin (-1.3) |
6 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7On expectation | 16 | +0.4 | +1.3 | 2:3 vs Hoffenheim (+2.4) | 0:5 vs Mainz (-1.3) |
7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7On expectation | 3 | +2.0 | -1.3 | 3:4 vs Mainz (+1.5) | 3:2 vs Elversberg (-2.0) |
8 | FC Koln | 5 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4On expectation | 9 | +2.5 | -2.1 | 3:2 vs Hoffenheim (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Hamburger SV (-1.4) |
9 | Paderborn | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0On expectation | 17 | +0.2 | -0.2 | 3:1 vs Hoffenheim (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Freiburg (-1.0) |
10 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1On expectation | 4 | +2.8 | -2.8 | 6:0 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.0) | 3:1 vs Werder Bremen (-1.8) |
11 | Schalke | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4On expectation | 11 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1:3 vs Union Berlin (+1.8) | 3:0 vs Augsburg (-1.2) |
12 | Union Berlin | 5 | 4 | 5.0 | -0.9On expectation | 14 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 1:0 vs Elversberg (+1.6) | 1:3 vs Schalke (-1.5) |
13 | Mainz | 5 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2On expectation | 7 | -4.1 | +2.9 | 0:5 vs Hamburger SV (+1.5) | 1:3 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.8) |
14 | Stuttgart | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2On expectation | 8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0:2 vs Paderborn (+1.1) | 0:1 vs Dortmund (-1.5) |
15 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3On expectation | 10 | -2.2 | +0.9 | 1:3 vs Mainz (+2.1) | 1:4 vs Augsburg (-1.8) |
16 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 11 | 12.8 | -1.8On expectation | 1 | +0.7 | -2.6 | 5:1 vs Stuttgart (+0.5) | 2:2 vs Augsburg (-1.5) |
17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 3 | 8.5 | -5.5Underperforming −− | 6 | -2.1 | -3.4 | 2:1 vs Stuttgart (+1.5) | 2:3 vs Hamburger SV (-2.2) |