Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
West Ham 67%Southampton 20%Middlesbrough 10%
chance of winning the league · 94 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
West Ham 89%Southampton 59%Middlesbrough 34%
chance of automatic promotion · 87 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Preston 86%Watford 41%Charlton 38%
chance of going down · 51 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Middlesbrough – Charlton+15.2%
FT U3.5 · data 73% vs market 58%
Fastest starters
Sheffield Utd31%
5 of their 16 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Bristol City58%
7 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025-2026Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points42.2%
the model's side won 42.2% of 1303 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+6.4%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +6.4% at market prices across 144 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-8.6 ptsBurnley produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
39%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Middlesbrough – Charlton2026-10-31 15:00FT U3.5Model 73.0%Implied 57.8%▲ +15.2%- Sheffield Utd – Wrexham2026-10-30 20:00Home winModel 48.0%Implied 40.0%▲ +8.0%
- Burnley – Portsmouth2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 56.4%Implied 48.8%▲ +7.6%
- Swansea – Blackburn2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 60.4%Implied 53.5%▲ +7.0%
- Wolves – Cardiff2026-10-31 15:00FT U3.5Model 63.4%Implied 58.1%▲ +5.3%
- Southampton – QPR2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 62.9%Implied 57.8%▲ +5.1%
- Millwall – Derby2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 56.0%Implied 51.0%▲ +5.0%
- Norwich – Watford2026-10-31 12:30FT U3.5Model 68.1%Implied 63.3%▲ +4.8%
- Stoke – Preston2026-10-31 12:30Under 2.5Model 55.5%Implied 52.1%▲ +3.4%
- West Ham – West Brom2026-10-31 15:00Over 2.5Model 65.3%Implied 62.9%▲ +2.4%
- Lincoln – Birmingham2026-10-31 12:30Home winModel 32.4%Implied 30.4%▲ +2.0%
- Bolton – Bristol City2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 37.7%Implied 36.5%▲ +1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough– Charlton | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 73.0% | 57.8% | ▲ +15.2% | 1.73 |
| 2 |  Sheffield Utd– Wrexham | 2026-10-30 | 20:00 | Home win | 48.0% | 40.0% | ▲ +8.0% | 2.50 |
| 3 |  Burnley– Portsmouth | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 56.4% | 48.8% | ▲ +7.6% | 2.05 |
| 4 |  Swansea– Blackburn | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 53.5% | ▲ +7.0% | 1.87 |
| 5 |  Wolves– Cardiff | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 63.4% | 58.1% | ▲ +5.3% | 1.72 |
| 6 |  Southampton– QPR | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 62.9% | 57.8% | ▲ +5.1% | 1.73 |
| 7 |  Millwall– Derby | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 51.0% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.96 |
| 8 |  Norwich– Watford | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | FT U3.5 | 68.1% | 63.3% | ▲ +4.8% | 1.58 |
| 9 |  Stoke– Preston | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 52.1% | ▲ +3.4% | 1.92 |
| 10 |  West Ham– West Brom | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 62.9% | ▲ +2.4% | 1.59 |
| 11 |  Lincoln– Birmingham | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Home win | 32.4% | 30.4% | ▲ +2.0% | 3.29 |
| 12 |  Bolton– Bristol City | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 37.7% | 36.5% | ▲ +1.2% | 2.74 |
Championship predictions and stats by market: 1X2 · Over 2.5 · Under 2.5 · BTTS · HT Over 1.5 · HT Under 1.5
Add Championship fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Championship schedule 10,000 times a day. West Ham win the 2026-2027 title in 67% of them, projecting ~92 points; Southampton are next at 20%. At the other end, Preston finish in the bottom three in 86% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 22 | 92 | 83–101 | 67% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Southampton | 24 | 86 | 76–95 | 20% | 92% | — |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 25 | 82 | 72–91 | 10% | 79% | — |
| 4 | Wolves | 21 | 75 | 65–85 | 2% | 45% | <1% |
| 5 | Swansea | 23 | 70 | 61–79 | <1% | 20% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 50 | 41–60 | — | <1% | 37% |
| 23 | Watford | 11 | 50 | 41–59 | — | <1% | 41% |
| 24 | Preston | 5 | 40 | 31–49 | — | — | 86% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 408 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/championship/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Championship live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/championship">Championship stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Championship match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +6.4%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out +6.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▲ +1.1%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
Draws in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out +1.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −1.9%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out −1.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −4.4%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
Away wins in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out −4.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −12.6%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out −12.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −15.5%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
Home wins in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out −15.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −23.0%
at market prices · 144 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Championship, 2026-2027: across 144 matches the market's prices paid out −23.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 25 | 21.6 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | Southampton | 24 | 20.0 | +4.0 | |
| 3 | Swansea | 23 | 16.3 | +6.8 | |
| 4 | West Ham | 22 | 22.8 | -0.8 | |
| 5 | Wolves | 21 | 20.7 | +0.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Burnley | 8 | 16.6 | -8.6 | underperformed expectations |
| 23 | Derby | 7 | 13.6 | -6.6 | |
| 24 | Preston | 5 | 13.3 | -8.3 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisMiddlesbrough25 ptsSouthampton24 ptsSwansea23 ptsWest Ham22 ptsWolves21 ptsWest Brom21 ptsQPR20 ptsBirmingham20 ptsStoke20 ptsBlackburn18 ptsPortsmouth18 ptsSheffield Utd16 ptsMillwall15 ptsBristol City15 ptsLincoln15 ptsCardiff14 ptsWrexham14 ptsBolton14 ptsCharlton14 ptsNorwich12 ptsWatford11 ptsBurnley8 ptsDerby7 ptsPreston5 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+