The season in numbers
Blindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Burnley produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 21.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Blackburn – Millwall2026-09-12 14:00
Under 2.5 ✓66.2%vs 52.9%▲ +13.2%Swansea – Burnley2026-09-12 14:00
Away win ✓41.6%vs 29.6%▲ +12.0%Derby – Birmingham2026-09-12 11:30
Home win ✓41.0%vs 29.2%▲ +11.8%Watford – Stoke2026-09-12 14:00
Under 2.5 ✓59.2%vs 52.9%▲ +6.3%West Brom – QPR2026-09-12 11:30
Under 2.5 ✓55.5%vs 50.5%▲ +5.0%Middlesbrough – Norwich2026-09-12 14:00
FT U3.5 ✓67.9%vs 63.7%▲ +4.2%Charlton – Portsmouth2026-09-12 14:00
Home win ✓39.7%vs 36.2%▲ +3.4%Middlesbrough – Millwall2026-09-15 18:45
Draw28.5%vs 27.8%▲ +0.8%Southampton – Bristol City2026-09-12 14:00
Draw22.6%vs 24.4%-1.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackburn– Millwall | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 66.2% | 52.9% | ▲ +13.2% | 1.89 | |
| 2 | Swansea– Burnley | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 41.6% | 29.6% | ▲ +12.0% | 3.38 | |
| 3 | Derby– Birmingham | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | Home win ✓ | 41.0% | 29.2% | ▲ +11.8% | 3.42 | |
| 4 | Watford– Stoke | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 59.2% | 52.9% | ▲ +6.3% | 1.89 | |
| 5 | West Brom– QPR | 2026-09-12 | 11:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.5% | 50.5% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.98 | |
| 6 | Middlesbrough– Norwich | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 67.9% | 63.7% | ▲ +4.2% | 1.57 | |
| 7 | Charlton– Portsmouth | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 39.7% | 36.2% | ▲ +3.4% | 2.76 | |
| 8 | Middlesbrough– Millwall | 2026-09-15 | 18:45 | Draw | 28.5% | 27.8% | ▲ +0.8% | 3.60 | |
| 9 | Southampton– Bristol City | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Draw | 22.6% | 24.4% | -1.8% | 4.10 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Championship schedule 10,000 times a day. Southampton win the 2026-2027 title in 37% of them, projecting ~83 points; West Ham are next at 20%. At the other end, Bolton finish in the bottom three in 82% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 11 | 83 | 73–93 | 37% | 80% | — |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 79 | 69–90 | 20% | 64% | — |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 77 | 67–88 | 14% | 55% | <1% |
| 4 | Wolves | 8 | 76 | 65–86 | 11% | 49% | <1% |
| 5 | Burnley | 3 | 75 | 65–85 | 8% | 44% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Preston | 3 | 48 | 39–58 | — | <1% | 43% |
| 23 | Cardiff | 4 | 46 | 36–55 | — | <1% | 58% |
| 24 | Bolton | 4 | 40 | 31–50 | — | — | 82% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 483 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/championship/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Championship live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/championship">Championship stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Championship match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Brom | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | Southampton | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | |
| 3 | West Ham | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | |
| 4 | Swansea | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 | |
| 5 | QPR | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Derby | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | |
| 23 | Burnley | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 | |
| 24 | Preston | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
West Brom13 pts
Southampton11 ptsWest Ham11 pts
Swansea11 pts
QPR11 pts
Charlton11 pts
Middlesbrough10 pts
Bristol City10 pts
Millwall9 pts
Norwich9 pts
Sheffield Utd9 ptsWolves8 pts
Watford8 pts
Wrexham7 pts
Birmingham7 pts
Stoke7 pts
Portsmouth6 pts
Blackburn5 ptsLincoln5 ptsCardiff4 ptsBolton4 pts
Derby4 ptsBurnley3 pts
Preston3 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+

