Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
West Ham 66%Wolves 17%Southampton 12%
chance of winning the league · 93 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
West Ham 86%Wolves 50%Southampton 37%
chance of automatic promotion · 87 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Cardiff 62%Preston 61%Portsmouth 32%
chance of going down · 51 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Blackburn – Cardiff+12.9%
Under 2.5 · data 57% vs market 44%
Fastest starters
Cardiff40%
4 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Bristol City64%
7 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025-2026Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points42.2%
the model's side won 42.2% of 1303 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+13.7%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +13.7% at market prices across 95 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.4 ptsBurnley produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
41%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Blackburn – Cardiff2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 57.2%Implied 44.2%▲ +12.9%- West Brom – Birmingham2026-10-10 11:30Under 2.5Model 61.6%Implied 50.3%▲ +11.4%
- Watford – Burnley2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 60.6%Implied 50.3%▲ +10.4%
- Charlton – Bristol City2026-10-10 11:30Under 2.5Model 65.0%Implied 57.8%▲ +7.2%
- Preston – Millwall2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 57.0%Implied 51.8%▲ +5.2%
- Southampton – Portsmouth2026-10-11 11:00Over 2.5Model 64.7%Implied 60.6%▲ +4.1%
- Derby – Wrexham2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 41.4%Implied 37.7%▲ +3.7%
- Swansea – Norwich2026-10-10 11:30Home winModel 43.4%Implied 40.8%▲ +2.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Blackburn– Cardiff | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 44.2% | ▲ +12.9% | 2.26 |
| 2 |  West Brom– Birmingham | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 50.3% | ▲ +11.4% | 1.99 |
| 3 |  Watford– Burnley | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 60.6% | 50.3% | ▲ +10.4% | 1.99 |
| 4 |  Charlton– Bristol City | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 57.8% | ▲ +7.2% | 1.73 |
| 5 |  Preston– Millwall | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 51.8% | ▲ +5.2% | 1.93 |
| 6 |  Southampton– Portsmouth | 2026-10-11 | 11:00 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 60.6% | ▲ +4.1% | 1.65 |
| 7 |  Derby– Wrexham | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 41.4% | 37.7% | ▲ +3.7% | 2.65 |
| 8 |  Swansea– Norwich | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Home win | 43.4% | 40.8% | ▲ +2.6% | 2.45 |
Add Championship fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctWe simulate the remaining Championship schedule 10,000 times a day. West Ham win the 2026-2027 title in 66% of them, projecting ~92 points; Wolves are next at 17%. At the other end, Cardiff finish in the bottom three in 62% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 15 | 92 | 82–101 | 66% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Wolves | 14 | 84 | 73–94 | 17% | 84% | — |
| 3 | Southampton | 14 | 81 | 71–91 | 12% | 78% | — |
| 4 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | 76 | 66–86 | 3% | 51% | <1% |
| 5 | Swansea | 17 | 70 | 60–80 | <1% | 22% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Portsmouth | 8 | 51 | 42–61 | — | <1% | 32% |
| 23 | Preston | 4 | 46 | 36–56 | — | <1% | 61% |
| 24 | Cardiff | 7 | 46 | 36–55 | — | — | 62% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 457 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/championship/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Championship live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/championship">Championship stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Championship match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +13.7%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out +13.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▲ +8.6%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
Draws in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out +8.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▲ +4.2%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out +4.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −13.5%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
Home wins in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out −13.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −13.8%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
Away wins in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out −13.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −16.0%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out −16.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −31.2%
at market prices · 95 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Championship, 2026-2027: across 95 matches the market's prices paid out −31.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 17 | 11.2 | +5.8 | |
| 2 | West Ham | 15 | 15.3 | -0.3 | |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | |
| 4 | Southampton | 14 | 13.7 | +0.3 | |
| 5 | Wolves | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Derby | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3 | |
| 23 | Preston | 4 | 9.7 | -5.7 | |
| 24 | Burnley | 4 | 10.4 | -6.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisSwansea17 ptsWest Ham15 ptsMiddlesbrough15 ptsSouthampton14 ptsWolves14 ptsWest Brom14 pts
QPR13 pts
Stoke13 ptsBristol City13 ptsCharlton12 ptsBirmingham11 ptsMillwall11 ptsLincoln11 ptsWrexham10 ptsBolton10 ptsBlackburn9 ptsNorwich9 pts
Sheffield Utd9 ptsPortsmouth8 ptsWatford8 ptsCardiff7 ptsDerby5 ptsPreston4 ptsBurnley4 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+