Championshiphub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Norwich | 46 | 97 | 82.0 | +15.0Outperforming ++ | 2 | +3.9 | +11.1 | 1:2 vs Blackburn (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Derby (-1.9) |
2 | Watford | 46 | 91 | 77.5 | +13.5Outperforming ++ | 4 | +17.4 | -3.9 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Luton (-1.9) |
3 | Barnsley | 46 | 78 | 64.9 | +13.1Outperforming ++ | 9 | +6.5 | +6.6 | 0:2 vs Brentford (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Sheffield Wed (-1.9) |
4 | Swansea | 46 | 80 | 68.3 | +11.7Outperforming ++ | 6 | +5.0 | +6.7 | 0:1 vs Preston (+1.8) | 1:3 vs Bristol City (-1.9) |
5 | QPR | 46 | 68 | 58.1 | +9.9Outperforming ++ | 16 | +5.3 | +4.6 | 1:2 vs Watford (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Huddersfield (-1.7) |
6 | Luton | 46 | 62 | 52.8 | +9.2Outperforming ++ | 21 | +4.3 | +4.9 | 0:1 vs Bournemouth (+2.2) | 0:2 vs QPR (-1.5) |
7 | Reading | 46 | 70 | 63.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 10 | +5.0 | +1.3 | 2:4 vs Blackburn (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Wycombe (-1.8) |
8 | Brentford | 46 | 87 | 82.4 | +4.6Outperforming | 1 | +0.6 | +4.0 | 0:1 vs Bournemouth (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Barnsley (-2.0) |
9 | Wycombe | 46 | 43 | 39.3 | +3.7Outperforming | 24 | +4.0 | -0.2 | 1:2 vs Birmingham (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Coventry (-1.2) |
10 | Cardiff | 46 | 68 | 65.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 7 | -5.3 | +7.8 | 0:1 vs Watford (+1.9) | 2:1 vs Wycombe (-1.8) |
11 | Preston | 46 | 61 | 58.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 15 | -5.3 | +7.8 | 2:3 vs Bournemouth (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Birmingham (-1.7) |
12 | Millwall | 46 | 62 | 61.9 | +0.1On expectation | 12 | -2.9 | +3.0 | 1:2 vs Stoke (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Huddersfield (-1.9) |
13 | Bristol City | 46 | 51 | 52.0 | -1.0On expectation | 23 | -4.5 | +3.5 | 1:3 vs Middlesbrough (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (-1.5) |
14 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 64 | 65.1 | -1.1On expectation | 8 | +1.4 | -2.5 | 0:1 vs Bristol City (+1.8) | 1:3 vs Bristol City (-2.0) |
15 | Coventry | 46 | 55 | 57.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 17 | +5.8 | -8.1 | 1:2 vs Millwall (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Preston (-1.5) |
16 | Birmingham | 46 | 52 | 54.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 19 | -7.8 | +5.4 | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Wycombe (-2.0) |
17 | Bournemouth | 46 | 77 | 79.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 3 | -0.6 | -2.0 | 1:3 vs Norwich (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Sheffield Wed (-2.1) |
18 | Stoke | 46 | 60 | 63.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 11 | -2.6 | -0.8 | 0:2 vs Bournemouth (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Bristol City (-1.8) |
19 | Huddersfield | 46 | 49 | 53.1 | -4.1Underperforming | 20 | +1.7 | -5.8 | 0:3 vs Millwall (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Wycombe (-1.9) |
20 | Nottingham | 46 | 52 | 61.7 | -9.7Underperforming −− | 13 | -7.6 | -2.1 | 0:1 vs Blackburn (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Luton (-1.8) |
21 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 47 | 56.9 | -9.9Underperforming −− | 18 | +0.8 | -10.6 | 1:2 vs Bournemouth (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Luton (-1.8) |
22 | Rotherham | 46 | 42 | 52.7 | -10.7Underperforming −− | 22 | -9.7 | -0.9 | 0:3 vs Middlesbrough (+2.0) | 0:3 vs Wycombe (-1.9) |
23 | Blackburn | 46 | 57 | 68.7 | -11.7Underperforming −− | 5 | -3.8 | -8.0 | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (+1.8) | 1:0 vs Wycombe (-1.9) |
24 | Derby | 46 | 44 | 59.3 | -15.3Underperforming −− | 14 | -7.5 | -7.8 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Rotherham (-1.7) |
