Championshiphub →Championship 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hull | 49 | 80 | 60.6 | +19.4Outperforming ++ | 14 | +6.5 | +12.9 | 1:2 vs Southampton (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Stoke (-1.6) |
2 | Millwall | 48 | 84 | 68.8 | +15.2Outperforming ++ | 7 | +3.7 | +11.5 | 1:2 vs Middlesbrough (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Hull (-1.8) |
3 | Coventry | 46 | 95 | 81.4 | +13.6Outperforming ++ | 2 | +9.9 | +3.7 | 1:2 vs Sheffield Utd (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Southampton (-1.7) |
4 | Wrexham | 46 | 71 | 60.5 | +10.5Outperforming ++ | 16 | +2.7 | +7.8 | 0:2 vs Blackburn (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Hull (-1.7) |
5 | Derby | 46 | 69 | 58.7 | +10.3Outperforming ++ | 18 | +2.0 | +8.2 | 0:1 vs West Brom (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Sheffield Utd (-1.7) |
6 | Preston | 46 | 60 | 53.9 | +6.1Outperforming ++ | 22 | -0.4 | +6.5 | 2:3 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Oxford Utd (-1.6) |
7 | Swansea | 46 | 64 | 60.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 15 | +3.1 | +0.3 | 0:1 vs Leicester (+2.0) | 0:1 vs QPR (-1.7) |
8 | Norwich | 46 | 65 | 61.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 12 | -5.9 | +9.3 | 0:5 vs West Brom (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Stoke (-1.7) |
9 | Southampton | 47 | 81 | 78.8 | +2.3Outperforming | 4 | +2.0 | +1.7 | 1:2 vs Coventry (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Hull (-2.0) |
10 | QPR | 46 | 58 | 57.0 | +1.0On expectation | 19 | +0.7 | +0.3 | 1:3 vs Leicester (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Norwich (-1.7) |
11 | Middlesbrough | 48 | 81 | 80.8 | +0.2On expectation | 3 | -1.7 | +3.1 | 0:3 vs Millwall (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Charlton (-2.4) |
12 | Portsmouth | 47 | 56 | 56.3 | -0.3On expectation | 20 | -1.9 | +1.7 | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Sheffield Wed (-1.9) |
13 | Ipswich | 46 | 84 | 84.5 | -0.5On expectation | 1 | +3.1 | -3.6 | 0:2 vs Coventry (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Charlton (-2.0) |
14 | Bristol City | 46 | 62 | 63.7 | -1.7On expectation | 10 | -6.3 | +4.6 | 1:4 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Oxford Utd (-2.0) |
15 | Charlton | 47 | 54 | 55.8 | -1.8On expectation | 21 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (+2.5) | 3:1 vs QPR (-1.6) |
16 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 47 | 49.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 23 | -0.3 | -2.1 | 2:1 vs Ipswich (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Wrexham (-1.5) |
17 | Stoke | 46 | 55 | 59.7 | -4.7Underperforming | 17 | -1.3 | -3.4 | 1:2 vs Southampton (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Hull (-1.9) |
18 | Blackburn | 47 | 55 | 60.9 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 13 | -11.9 | +6.1 | 0:1 vs Birmingham (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Wrexham (-1.7) |
19 | Watford | 46 | 57 | 63.0 | -6.0Underperforming −− | 11 | +0.6 | -6.7 | 1:2 vs Leicester (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Millwall (-1.6) |
20 | Birmingham | 46 | 64 | 73.0 | -9.0Underperforming −− | 5 | +2.5 | -11.5 | 1:2 vs Norwich (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Blackburn (-1.9) |
21 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 60 | 71.3 | -11.3Underperforming −− | 6 | -10.3 | -1.0 | 1:2 vs Derby (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Preston (-2.0) |
22 | Leicester | 46 | 52 | 65.8 | -13.8Underperforming −− | 9 | -9.2 | -4.6 | 0:1 vs Blackburn (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Blackburn (-1.9) |
23 | West Brom | 46 | 53 | 67.8 | -14.8Underperforming −− | 8 | -3.7 | -11.1 | 0:1 vs Stoke (+1.7) | 2:1 vs Sheffield Wed (-2.0) |
24 | Sheffield Wed | 47 | 18 | 33.4 | -15.3Underperforming −− | 24 | -10.2 | -5.2 | 0:2 vs Portsmouth (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Oxford Utd (-1.2) |