Championshiphub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Burnley | 46 | 101 | 82.1 | +18.9Outperforming ++ | 1 | +7.8 | +11.0 | 0:3 vs Norwich (+1.7) | 1:2 vs QPR (-2.3) |
2 | Luton | 46 | 80 | 67.2 | +12.8Outperforming ++ | 7 | +1.2 | +11.6 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Wigan (-1.6) |
3 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 91 | 79.4 | +11.6Outperforming ++ | 2 | +7.0 | +4.6 | 0:2 vs West Brom (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Rotherham (-2.3) |
4 | Blackburn | 46 | 69 | 61.4 | +7.6Outperforming ++ | 13 | +8.0 | -0.4 | 0:2 vs Norwich (+2.2) | 1:4 vs Preston (-1.6) |
5 | Sunderland | 46 | 69 | 62.2 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 12 | -5.5 | +12.3 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Rotherham (-1.7) |
6 | Coventry | 46 | 70 | 65.3 | +4.7Outperforming | 10 | +3.2 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Watford (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Blackpool (-1.7) |
7 | Preston | 46 | 63 | 58.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 15 | -5.8 | +10.0 | 2:3 vs Norwich (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Birmingham (-1.9) |
8 | Hull | 46 | 58 | 53.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 18 | +2.0 | +2.3 | 0:1 vs Birmingham (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Reading (-1.5) |
9 | Huddersfield | 46 | 53 | 49.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 23 | +4.0 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Millwall (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Blackpool (-1.5) |
10 | Swansea | 46 | 66 | 64.1 | +1.9On expectation | 11 | +0.5 | +1.4 | 2:3 vs West Brom (+2.2) | 3:4 vs Birmingham (-1.8) |
11 | Rotherham | 46 | 50 | 48.6 | +1.4On expectation | 24 | +4.5 | -3.1 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.5) | 0:2 vs Wigan (-1.5) |
12 | Millwall | 46 | 68 | 66.8 | +1.2On expectation | 8 | +1.3 | -0.1 | 0:2 vs Watford (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Huddersfield (-2.0) |
13 | Reading | 46 | 50 | 49.2 | +0.8On expectation | 22 | +9.2 | -8.4 | 0:1 vs Millwall (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Preston (-1.5) |
14 | Bristol City | 46 | 59 | 58.3 | +0.8On expectation | 16 | +0.3 | +0.4 | 1:2 vs Stoke (+2.3) | 1:2 vs QPR (-1.5) |
15 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 75 | 75.2 | -0.2On expectation | 4 | +3.5 | -3.7 | 1:3 vs Sheffield Utd (+1.9) | 4:2 vs Huddersfield (-1.9) |
16 | Birmingham | 46 | 53 | 53.7 | -0.7On expectation | 19 | -3.7 | +3.0 | 2:3 vs West Brom (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Hull (-1.7) |
17 | Watford | 46 | 63 | 68.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 6 | +0.1 | -5.2 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Huddersfield (-1.9) |
18 | Blackpool | 46 | 44 | 51.5 | -7.5Underperforming −− | 21 | -5.8 | -1.7 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Hull (-1.6) |
19 | Wigan | 46 | 45 | 52.8 | -7.8Underperforming −− | 20 | -7.8 | +0.1 | 0:1 vs Stoke (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Reading (-1.6) |
20 | QPR | 46 | 50 | 59.1 | -9.1Underperforming −− | 14 | -10.7 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs Burnley (+2.5) | 1:2 vs Huddersfield (-2.0) |
21 | Cardiff | 46 | 49 | 58.2 | -9.2Underperforming −− | 17 | -8.5 | -0.8 | 2:3 vs Middlesbrough (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Hull (-1.7) |
22 | West Brom | 46 | 66 | 76.7 | -10.7Underperforming −− | 3 | -3.1 | -7.7 | 1:2 vs Stoke (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Birmingham (-2.2) |
23 | Stoke | 46 | 53 | 65.6 | -12.6Underperforming −− | 9 | -14.3 | +1.7 | 1:3 vs Swansea (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Bristol City (-2.0) |
24 | Norwich | 46 | 62 | 74.8 | -12.8Underperforming −− | 5 | -12.5 | -0.3 | 0:1 vs Swansea (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Blackpool (-2.1) |
