Championshiphub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Burnley | 46 | 100 | 77.6 | +22.4Outperforming ++ | 2 | +8.1 | +14.3 | 0:1 vs Leeds (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Millwall (-1.3) |
2 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 92 | 73.7 | +18.4Outperforming ++ | 5 | +7.7 | +10.6 | 0:2 vs Stoke (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Plymouth (-2.1) |
3 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 53 | 46.3 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 23 | +10.9 | -4.2 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Wed (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Portsmouth (-1.5) |
4 | Millwall | 46 | 66 | 59.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 14 | +5.4 | +1.2 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Oxford Utd (-1.9) |
5 | Plymouth | 46 | 46 | 40.2 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 24 | +10.2 | -4.4 | 2:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.3) | 0:1 vs QPR (-1.3) |
6 | Portsmouth | 46 | 54 | 48.9 | +5.1Outperforming ++ | 22 | +11.3 | -6.2 | 1:0 vs Leeds (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Plymouth (-2.0) |
7 | Blackburn | 46 | 66 | 62.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 12 | +4.4 | -0.8 | 1:0 vs Leeds (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Cardiff (-1.8) |
8 | Leeds | 46 | 100 | 97.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 1 | +5.6 | -2.6 | 0:2 vs Sheffield Wed (+1.3) | 1:0 vs Portsmouth (-2.2) |
9 | QPR | 46 | 56 | 53.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 21 | -1.9 | +4.3 | 0:1 vs Sunderland (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Portsmouth (-1.8) |
10 | Sunderland | 46 | 76 | 74.2 | +1.8On expectation | 4 | +0.5 | +1.3 | 0:1 vs West Brom (+1.8) | 0:1 vs QPR (-2.1) |
11 | Bristol City | 46 | 68 | 66.9 | +1.1On expectation | 8 | +7.6 | -6.5 | 0:2 vs Middlesbrough (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Swansea (-1.8) |
12 | Swansea | 46 | 61 | 61.6 | -0.6On expectation | 13 | +0.7 | -1.3 | 0:1 vs Sunderland (+2.1) | 4:0 vs Portsmouth (-1.6) |
13 | Coventry | 46 | 69 | 70.0 | -1.0On expectation | 6 | +5.7 | -6.6 | 0:3 vs Middlesbrough (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Derby (-2.1) |
14 | Watford | 46 | 57 | 58.0 | -1.0On expectation | 16 | +5.7 | -6.7 | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Cardiff (-1.8) |
15 | West Brom | 46 | 64 | 67.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 7 | +2.1 | -5.6 | 5:3 vs Luton (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Plymouth (-1.9) |
16 | Derby | 46 | 50 | 54.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 19 | +0.3 | -4.7 | 1:2 vs Coventry (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Watford (-1.7) |
17 | Preston | 46 | 50 | 54.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 18 | +1.6 | -6.0 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Plymouth (-1.9) |
18 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 58 | 64.1 | -6.1Underperforming −− | 10 | -10.5 | +4.4 | 1:2 vs Coventry (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Oxford Utd (-2.0) |
19 | Stoke | 46 | 51 | 57.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 17 | -0.7 | -6.0 | 1:2 vs Hull (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Hull (-1.6) |
20 | Norwich | 46 | 57 | 66.2 | -9.2Underperforming −− | 9 | -0.3 | -8.9 | 0:1 vs Coventry (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Preston (-1.9) |
21 | Hull | 46 | 49 | 59.0 | -10.0Underperforming −− | 15 | -11.1 | +1.1 | 0:1 vs Sunderland (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Stoke (-1.7) |
22 | Cardiff | 46 | 44 | 54.2 | -10.2Underperforming −− | 20 | -5.3 | -4.9 | 1:2 vs Watford (+2.1) | 0:2 vs QPR (-1.7) |
23 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 64 | 77.5 | -13.5Underperforming −− | 3 | -4.3 | -9.2 | 0:1 vs West Brom (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Watford (-2.0) |
24 | Luton | 46 | 49 | 62.7 | -13.7Underperforming −− | 11 | -2.0 | -11.7 | 0:1 vs Hull (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Blackburn (-1.9) |
