Championshiphub →Championship 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
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Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Stoke | 15 | 29 | 19.7 | +9.3Outperforming ++ | 16 | +2.7 | +6.6 | 1:0 vs Norwich (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Swansea (-1.5) |
2 | Birmingham | 15 | 29 | 22.1 | +6.9Outperforming ++ | 7 | +3.0 | +3.9 | 1:2 vs Wrexham (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Cardiff (-1.4) |
3 | West Brom | 15 | 28 | 21.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 9 | +1.7 | +4.7 | 1:3 vs West Ham (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Birmingham (-1.4) |
4 | Swansea | 15 | 26 | 20.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 12 | +3.2 | +2.4 | 1:2 vs Stoke (+1.8) | 3:1 vs Portsmouth (-1.3) |
5 | Blackburn | 15 | 21 | 16.9 | +4.1Outperforming | 18 | +5.3 | -1.3 | 2:1 vs West Ham (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Stoke (-1.3) |
6 | Southampton | 15 | 28 | 24.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 4 | +5.8 | -2.6 | 2:3 vs West Ham (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Preston (-2.0) |
7 | Portsmouth | 15 | 22 | 19.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 17 | +1.0 | +1.8 | 0:1 vs Norwich (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Derby (-1.7) |
8 | QPR | 15 | 24 | 21.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 8 | +1.5 | +0.9 | 1:3 vs Portsmouth (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (-1.3) |
9 | Wolves | 15 | 28 | 26.1 | +1.9On expectation | 3 | -0.3 | +2.2 | 1:2 vs Burnley (+1.5) | 1:3 vs Bolton (-2.3) |
10 | Bolton | 15 | 17 | 15.5 | +1.5On expectation | 24 | -2.4 | +3.9 | 1:3 vs Wolves (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Lincoln (-1.4) |
11 | Charlton | 15 | 17 | 16.1 | +0.9On expectation | 21 | +1.6 | -0.7 | 1:2 vs West Ham (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Bolton (-1.6) |
12 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 29 | 28.1 | +0.9On expectation | 2 | +2.9 | -1.9 | 0:1 vs QPR (+1.5) | 2:0 vs Wrexham (-1.8) |
13 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 22 | 22.3 | -0.3On expectation | 6 | -0.0 | -0.3 | 0:1 vs Bristol City (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Charlton (-1.8) |
14 | Watford | 15 | 15 | 15.7 | -0.7On expectation | 23 | +4.1 | -4.9 | 2:1 vs Southampton (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Stoke (-1.5) |
15 | Lincoln | 15 | 15 | 16.8 | -1.8On expectation | 20 | -3.5 | +1.7 | 0:1 vs Bristol City (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Portsmouth (-1.5) |
16 | Millwall | 15 | 18 | 19.8 | -1.8On expectation | 15 | +0.3 | -2.1 | 3:0 vs Norwich (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Wrexham (-1.5) |
17 | Cardiff | 15 | 18 | 20.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 14 | +3.7 | -5.8 | 1:0 vs Birmingham (+1.7) | 1:0 vs Bolton (-1.4) |
18 | Wrexham | 15 | 18 | 20.4 | -2.4Underperforming | 11 | +0.0 | -2.5 | 2:0 vs Middlesbrough (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Birmingham (-1.6) |
19 | Bristol City | 15 | 18 | 20.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 10 | -6.3 | +3.7 | 1:2 vs Burnley (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Lincoln (-1.8) |
20 | Norwich | 15 | 21 | 24.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 5 | -3.6 | +0.6 | 1:3 vs Sheffield Utd (+1.6) | 3:4 vs Bolton (-2.2) |
21 | West Ham | 15 | 23 | 28.3 | -5.3Underperforming −− | 1 | -3.9 | -1.4 | 4:2 vs Wolves (+1.4) | 1:2 vs Charlton (-2.2) |
22 | Derby | 15 | 10 | 16.9 | -6.9Underperforming −− | 19 | -5.3 | -1.5 | 0:2 vs Portsmouth (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Swansea (-1.5) |
23 | Preston | 15 | 8 | 15.9 | -7.9Underperforming −− | 22 | -2.3 | -5.6 | 1:0 vs Southampton (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Lincoln (-1.4) |
24 | Burnley | 15 | 10 | 20.3 | -10.3Underperforming −− | 13 | -5.8 | -4.5 | 0:4 vs Watford (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Bristol City (-1.7) |