Championshiphub →Championship 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Swansea | 8 | 17 | 11.2 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 9 | +1.7 | +4.1 | 1:2 vs Stoke (+1.8) | 3:1 vs Southampton (-1.0) |
2 | Charlton | 8 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2Outperforming | 22 | +2.5 | +0.7 | 1:2 vs West Ham (+2.4) | 4:0 vs Stoke (-1.0) |
3 | Stoke | 8 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2Outperforming | 16 | +3.1 | +0.0 | 1:0 vs Norwich (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Swansea (-1.5) |
4 | West Brom | 8 | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 8 | +1.2 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs Norwich (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Wolves (-1.0) |
5 | Wolves | 7 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 6 | +1.2 | +1.1 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+1.4) | 4:2 vs West Ham (-1.2) |
6 | Bristol City | 8 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 11 | -0.7 | +2.9 | 1:2 vs Burnley (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Lincoln (-1.8) |
7 | Lincoln | 8 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6On expectation | 19 | -3.2 | +4.8 | 0:1 vs Bristol City (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Portsmouth (-1.5) |
8 | Bolton | 8 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4On expectation | 24 | +0.9 | +0.6 | 3:4 vs Norwich (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Lincoln (-1.4) |
9 | Millwall | 8 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4On expectation | 18 | +1.6 | -0.3 | 3:0 vs Norwich (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Wrexham (-1.5) |
10 | QPR | 8 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2On expectation | 5 | -1.5 | +2.7 | 1:3 vs Portsmouth (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (-1.2) |
11 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9On expectation | 2 | +2.1 | -1.2 | 0:1 vs QPR (+1.5) | 2:1 vs Blackburn (-1.7) |
12 | Birmingham | 8 | 11 | 10.6 | +0.4On expectation | 13 | -1.8 | +2.2 | 1:2 vs Wrexham (+1.9) | 2:1 vs Norwich (-1.0) |
13 | Southampton | 8 | 14 | 13.7 | +0.3On expectation | 3 | +4.7 | -4.3 | 5:1 vs Millwall (+1.3) | 2:1 vs Watford (-1.7) |
14 | Blackburn | 8 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3On expectation | 21 | +1.0 | -1.3 | 2:1 vs Middlesbrough (+2.0) | 1:2 vs QPR (-1.3) |
15 | West Ham | 8 | 15 | 15.3 | -0.3On expectation | 1 | +0.9 | -1.2 | 4:2 vs Wolves (+1.4) | 1:2 vs Charlton (-2.2) |
16 | Watford | 8 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7On expectation | 23 | +2.0 | -2.6 | 2:1 vs Southampton (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Stoke (-1.5) |
17 | Wrexham | 8 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8On expectation | 12 | -1.4 | +0.6 | 0:3 vs Millwall (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Birmingham (-1.6) |
18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9On expectation | 15 | -2.2 | +0.3 | 1:3 vs Lincoln (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Derby (-1.7) |
19 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 9 | 11.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 7 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 1:2 vs Blackburn (+1.5) | 1:3 vs Norwich (-1.4) |
20 | Norwich | 8 | 9 | 12.7 | -3.7Underperforming | 4 | -1.3 | -2.4 | 1:3 vs Sheffield Utd (+1.6) | 3:4 vs Bolton (-2.2) |
21 | Cardiff | 8 | 7 | 11.2 | -4.2Underperforming | 10 | -0.2 | -3.9 | 3:1 vs Charlton (+1.1) | 1:0 vs Bolton (-1.4) |
22 | Derby | 8 | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3Underperforming | 20 | -4.4 | +0.1 | 0:2 vs Portsmouth (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Swansea (-1.5) |
23 | Preston | 8 | 4 | 9.7 | -5.7Underperforming −− | 17 | -2.4 | -3.4 | 2:1 vs Blackburn (+1.5) | 0:1 vs Lincoln (-1.4) |
24 | Burnley | 8 | 4 | 10.4 | -6.4Underperforming −− | 14 | -2.9 | -3.5 | 1:1 vs Wrexham (+-0.1) | 1:2 vs Bristol City (-1.7) |