Championshiphub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Huddersfield | 46 | 82 | 59.0 | +23.0Outperforming ++ | 15 | +11.0 | +12.0 | 1:2 vs Fulham (+2.5) | 0:2 vs Nottingham (-1.7) |
2 | Nottingham | 46 | 80 | 66.1 | +13.9Outperforming ++ | 8 | +5.0 | +8.9 | 0:2 vs Huddersfield (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Huddersfield (-1.7) |
3 | Luton | 46 | 75 | 63.1 | +11.9Outperforming ++ | 10 | +7.3 | +4.6 | 1:2 vs Stoke (+1.9) | 1:2 vs QPR (-1.7) |
4 | Bournemouth | 46 | 88 | 79.0 | +9.0Outperforming ++ | 3 | +2.3 | +6.7 | 0:2 vs Birmingham (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Hull (-2.1) |
5 | Millwall | 46 | 69 | 62.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 12 | +9.6 | -3.0 | 1:2 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Swansea (-1.6) |
6 | Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 54.1 | +5.9Outperforming ++ | 18 | +4.9 | +1.0 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Derby (-1.8) |
7 | Blackburn | 46 | 69 | 65.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 9 | +4.6 | -0.8 | 0:2 vs Bournemouth (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Peterborough (-1.9) |
8 | QPR | 46 | 66 | 62.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 11 | +0.6 | +3.0 | 1:2 vs Coventry (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Peterborough (-1.9) |
9 | Preston | 46 | 64 | 60.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 13 | +3.1 | 0.0 | 0:2 vs West Brom (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Reading (-1.9) |
10 | Bristol City | 46 | 55 | 52.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 21 | +1.3 | +1.5 | 0:1 vs Blackburn (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Birmingham (-1.6) |
11 | Derby | 46 | 55 | 52.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 20 | +9.2 | -7.0 | 1:0 vs West Brom (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Cardiff (-1.6) |
12 | Swansea | 46 | 61 | 60.0 | +1.0On expectation | 14 | +0.3 | +0.7 | 0:2 vs West Brom (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Reading (-1.8) |
13 | Fulham | 46 | 90 | 91.4 | -1.4On expectation | 1 | -3.8 | +2.4 | 0:1 vs Middlesbrough (+1.4) | 1:2 vs Huddersfield (-2.3) |
14 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 70 | 71.6 | -1.6On expectation | 5 | +4.4 | -6.0 | 2:0 vs Sheffield Utd (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Hull (-2.1) |
15 | Hull | 46 | 51 | 53.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 19 | -5.9 | +3.7 | 0:1 vs Bournemouth (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Peterborough (-1.7) |
16 | Reading | 46 | 47 | 50.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 22 | -3.6 | +0.4 | 1:2 vs Fulham (+2.5) | 2:3 vs Blackpool (-1.7) |
17 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 75 | 78.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 4 | +1.0 | -4.2 | 0:1 vs Fulham (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Blackpool (-2.1) |
18 | Coventry | 46 | 64 | 67.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 6 | -3.3 | -0.2 | 1:3 vs Fulham (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Hull (-2.1) |
19 | Stoke | 46 | 62 | 66.3 | -4.3Underperforming | 7 | -2.8 | -1.6 | 1:3 vs West Brom (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Derby (-1.9) |
20 | Cardiff | 46 | 53 | 57.9 | -4.9Underperforming | 16 | -8.0 | +3.1 | 1:2 vs Preston (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Bristol City (-1.8) |
21 | Peterborough | 46 | 37 | 44.7 | -7.7Underperforming −− | 24 | -0.3 | -7.4 | 2:1 vs Blackburn (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Bristol City (-1.5) |
22 | Birmingham | 46 | 47 | 55.5 | -8.5Underperforming −− | 17 | -5.0 | -3.5 | 0:1 vs Sheffield Utd (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Reading (-1.7) |
23 | West Brom | 46 | 67 | 80.3 | -13.3Underperforming −− | 2 | -0.1 | -13.3 | 1:0 vs Fulham (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Derby (-2.0) |
24 | Barnsley | 46 | 30 | 48.9 | -18.9Underperforming −− | 23 | -6.5 | -12.5 | 3:2 vs Middlesbrough (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Peterborough (-1.7) |
