Championship title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 4 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: West Ham (65%), Wolves (18%), Southampton (12%). 93 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 8 | 15 | 9282–101 | 65% | 78 from 38 (2.05/game) |
| Wolves | 7 | 14 | 8474–94 | 18% | 79 from 39 (2.03/game) |
| Southampton | 8 | 14 | 8171–91 | 12% | 79 from 38 (2.08/game) |
| Middlesbrough | 8 | 15 | 7666–86 | 3% | 78 from 38 (2.05/game) |
Below 1%: Swansea, Burnley, Millwall, West Brom, Bristol City, Norwich, Sheffield Utd, Wrexham, Birmingham, Stoke, Lincoln, QPR, Blackburn, Derby, Bolton, Charlton, Watford, Portsmouth, Preston, Cardiff.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 457 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).