Championship relegation battle 2026/27: who will go down?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 4 Oct 2026
Lowest survival chances in Championship: Cardiff (38%), Preston (40%), Portsmouth (68%). 51 points kept a club up in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to stay up in half the simulated seasons
enough to stay up in nine seasons out of ten
Survival chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Survive | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 8 | 7 | 4636–55 | 38% | 44 from 38 (1.16/game) |
| Preston | 8 | 4 | 4636–55 | 40% | 47 from 38 (1.24/game) |
| Portsmouth | 7 | 8 | 5142–61 | 68% | 43 from 39 (1.10/game) |
| Watford | 8 | 8 | 5343–62 | 76% | 43 from 38 (1.13/game) |
| Bolton | 8 | 10 | 5344–63 | 76% | 41 from 38 (1.08/game) |
| Charlton | 8 | 12 | 5344–63 | 76% | 39 from 38 (1.03/game) |
| Derby | 8 | 5 | 5444–64 | 81% | 46 from 38 (1.21/game) |
| Blackburn | 8 | 9 | 5646–66 | 86% | 42 from 38 (1.11/game) |
| QPR | 8 | 13 | 5747–67 | 89% | 38 from 38 (1.00/game) |
| Lincoln | 8 | 11 | 5949–69 | 93% | 40 from 38 (1.05/game) |
| Stoke | 8 | 13 | 5950–69 | 94% | 38 from 38 (1.00/game) |
| Birmingham | 8 | 11 | 6253–72 | 97% | 40 from 38 (1.05/game) |
| Wrexham | 8 | 10 | 6353–73 | 97% | 41 from 38 (1.08/game) |
| Norwich | 8 | 9 | 6353–73 | 97% | 42 from 38 (1.11/game) |
| Sheffield Utd | 8 | 9 | 6353–73 | 98% | 42 from 38 (1.11/game) |
| Bristol City | 8 | 13 | 6354–74 | 98% | 38 from 38 (1.00/game) |
| West Brom | 8 | 14 | 6656–76 | 99% | 37 from 38 (0.97/game) |
| Millwall | 8 | 11 | 6656–76 | 99% | 40 from 38 (1.05/game) |
Above 99%: West Ham, Wolves, Southampton, Middlesbrough, Swansea, Burnley.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 457 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes outside the relegation places (top 21). The points line is what the club finishing 22nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).