Championship predicted table 2026/27
England · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 4 October 2026
- West Ham are the most likely Championship champions, finishing first in 65% of 10,000 simulations (projected 92 points; Wolves next on 18%).
- Cardiff (62%), Preston (60%) are more likely than not to finish in the relegated places.
- Burnley sit 24th today but are projected to finish 6th — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Promoted | Play-offs | Relegated | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 8 | 15 | 9282–101 | 86% | 13% | 0% | 1st (65%) |
| 2 | Wolves | 7 | 14 | 8474–94 | 50% | 44% | 0% | 2nd (32%) |
| 3 | Southampton | 8 | 14 | 8171–91 | 37% | 54% | <1% | 3rd (26%) |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 15 | 7666–86 | 14% | 60% | <1% | 4th (19%) |
| 5 | Swansea | 8 | 17 | 7060–80 | 3% | 41% | <1% | 5th (12%) |
| 6 | Burnley | 8 | 4 | 6959–79 | 2% | 37% | <1% | 5th (11%) |
| 7 | Millwall | 8 | 11 | 6656–76 | 2% | 25% | 1% | 8th (9%) |
| 8 | West Brom | 8 | 14 | 6656–76 | 1% | 25% | 1% | 7th (9%) |
| 9 | Bristol City | 8 | 13 | 6354–74 | <1% | 16% | 2% | 10th (8%) |
| 10 | Norwich | 8 | 9 | 6353–73 | <1% | 16% | 3% | 8th (8%) |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 9 | 6353–73 | <1% | 15% | 2% | 8th (8%) |
| 12 | Wrexham | 8 | 10 | 6353–73 | <1% | 15% | 3% | 9th (8%) |
| 13 | Birmingham | 8 | 11 | 6253–72 | <1% | 13% | 3% | 12th (7%) |
| 14 | Stoke | 8 | 13 | 5950–69 | <1% | 6% | 6% | 12th (7%) |
| 15 | Lincoln | 8 | 11 | 5949–69 | <1% | 6% | 7% | 14th (7%) |
| 16 | QPR | 8 | 13 | 5747–67 | <1% | 4% | 11% | 18th (7%) |
| 17 | Blackburn | 8 | 9 | 5646–66 | <1% | 3% | 14% | 19th (8%) |
| 18 | Derby | 8 | 5 | 5444–64 | 0% | 2% | 19% | 20th (8%) |
| 19 | Bolton | 8 | 10 | 5344–63 | <1% | 1% | 24% | 21st (9%) |
| 20 | Charlton | 8 | 12 | 5344–63 | <1% | <1% | 24% | 21st (10%) |
| 21 | Watford | 8 | 8 | 5343–62 | <1% | 1% | 24% | 21st (10%) |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 7 | 8 | 5142–61 | <1% | <1% | 32% | 23rd (11%) |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 4 | 4636–55 | 0% | <1% | 60% | 24th (29%) |
| 24 | Cardiff | 8 | 7 | 4636–55 | 0% | <1% | 62% | 24th (29%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 457 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
Cite as: Football Charts (2026). Championship 2026/27 predicted table, run of 4 October 2026. https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/championship/projection