Championship: Under 2.5 Goals predictions and stats
Championship 2026/27 so far: 57 of 144 matches (40%) had two goals or fewer (results to 24 Oct).
Zero, one or two total goals at full-time. Matches ranked by model probability.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
Kickoff times: Europe/Belgrade
After Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 12 matches
Swansea – Blackburn31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 60.4%Implied 53.5%▲ +7.0%- Millwall – Derby31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 56.0%Implied 51.0%▲ +5.0%
- Stoke – Preston31 Oct 13:30Under 2.5Model 55.5%Implied 52.1%▲ +3.4%
- Lincoln – Birmingham31 Oct 13:30Under 2.5Model 54.5%Implied 53.5%▲ +1.0%
- Middlesbrough – Charlton31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 51.2%Implied 36.9%▲ +14.3%
- Burnley – Portsmouth31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 50.2%Implied 52.6%-2.5%
- Bolton – Bristol City31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 48.4%Implied 48.3%▲ +0.1%
- Norwich – Watford31 Oct 13:30Under 2.5Model 45.8%Implied 42.0%▲ +3.7%
- Sheffield Utd – Wrexham30 Oct 21:00Under 2.5Model 44.4%Implied 53.8%-9.4%
- Wolves – Cardiff31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 41.0%Implied 37.3%▲ +3.7%
- Southampton – QPR31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 37.4%Implied 41.2%-3.7%
- West Ham – West Brom31 Oct 16:00Under 2.5Model 34.7%Implied 43.3%-8.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea– Blackburn | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 53.5% | ▲ +7.0% | 1.87 |
| 2 |  Millwall– Derby | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 51.0% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.96 |
| 3 |  Stoke– Preston | 31 Oct | 13:30 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 52.1% | ▲ +3.4% | 1.92 |
| 4 |  Lincoln– Birmingham | 31 Oct | 13:30 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 53.5% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.87 |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough– Charlton | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 36.9% | ▲ +14.3% | 2.71 |
| 6 |  Burnley– Portsmouth | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 52.6% | -2.5% | 1.90 |
| 7 |  Bolton– Bristol City | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 48.4% | 48.3% | ▲ +0.1% | 2.07 |
| 8 |  Norwich– Watford | 31 Oct | 13:30 | Under 2.5 | 45.8% | 42.0% | ▲ +3.7% | 2.38 |
| 9 |  Sheffield Utd– Wrexham | 30 Oct | 21:00 | Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 53.8% | -9.4% | 1.86 |
| 10 |  Wolves– Cardiff | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 37.3% | ▲ +3.7% | 2.68 |
| 11 |  Southampton– QPR | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 37.4% | 41.2% | -3.7% | 2.43 |
| 12 |  West Ham– West Brom | 31 Oct | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 34.7% | 43.3% | -8.6% | 2.31 |
Model % is the pre-match estimated chance, not a live probability or a past hit rate.
Implied % comes from the odds. Divergence is the difference in percentage points.
Under 2.5 by team, 2026/27
How often each team's matches had two goals or fewer this season, highest first. Home and away: matches with two goals or fewer / matches played.
| Team | Played | Under 2.5 | % | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 12 | 7 | 58% | 5/6 | 2/6 |
| Watford | 12 | 7 | 58% | 2/6 | 5/6 |
| West Brom | 12 | 7 | 58% | 4/6 | 3/6 |
| Charlton | 12 | 6 | 50% | 4/6 | 2/6 |
| Derby | 12 | 6 | 50% | 3/6 | 3/6 |
| Portsmouth | 12 | 6 | 50% | 2/6 | 4/6 |
| Wrexham | 12 | 6 | 50% | 2/6 | 4/6 |
| Cardiff | 12 | 5 | 42% | 3/6 | 2/6 |
| Lincoln | 12 | 5 | 42% | 2/6 | 3/6 |
| QPR | 12 | 5 | 42% | 2/6 | 3/6 |
| Sheffield Utd | 12 | 5 | 42% | 3/6 | 2/6 |
| Southampton | 12 | 5 | 42% | 2/6 | 3/6 |
| Swansea | 12 | 5 | 42% | 4/6 | 1/6 |
| Wolves | 12 | 5 | 42% | 3/6 | 2/6 |
| Birmingham | 12 | 4 | 33% | 1/6 | 3/6 |
| Bolton | 12 | 4 | 33% | 2/6 | 2/6 |
| Preston | 12 | 4 | 33% | 3/6 | 1/6 |
| Stoke | 12 | 4 | 33% | 2/6 | 2/6 |
| Blackburn | 12 | 3 | 25% | 1/6 | 2/6 |
| Burnley | 12 | 3 | 25% | 2/6 | 1/6 |
| Middlesbrough | 12 | 3 | 25% | 1/6 | 2/6 |
| Millwall | 12 | 3 | 25% | 1/6 | 2/6 |
| Norwich | 12 | 3 | 25% | 2/6 | 1/6 |
| West Ham | 12 | 3 | 25% | 1/6 | 2/6 |
Latest results
Championship matches in the 7 days to Sat, 24 Oct 2026, the newest result.
- 24 OctPortsmouth 2:1 MillwallUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctCharlton 1:3 NorwichUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctSheffield Utd 1:1 DerbyUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctCardiff 1:0 BirminghamUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctBlackburn 2:0 WrexhamUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctLincoln 4:1 BurnleyUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctPreston 1:1 West BromUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctQPR 5:0 SwanseaUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctStoke 0:0 Bristol CityUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctWest Ham 2:3 SouthamptonUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctWolves 1:0 WatfordUnder 2.5 yes
- 23 OctBolton 1:5 MiddlesbroughUnder 2.5 no
- 20 OctWolves 1:1 PortsmouthUnder 2.5 yes
Championship table, fixtures and season projection →
Under 2.5 Goals: by day
Under 2.5 Goals: by league
These rankings come from historical data alone — the market usually knows more. Every prediction is logged pre-match and settled in public. Statistics, not betting advice. 18+ · never stake more than you can afford to lose.