Liga Portugal: Under 2.5 Goals predictions and stats
Liga Portugal 2026/27 so far: 36 of 81 matches (44%) had two goals or fewer (results to 26 Oct).
Zero, one or two total goals at full-time. Matches ranked by model probability.
Upcoming Liga Portugal fixtures
Kickoff times: Europe/Belgrade
After Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 6 matches
Braga – Famalicao1 Nov 21:30Under 2.5Model 58.8%Implied 56.8%▲ +2.0%- Arouca – Nacional1 Nov 16:30Under 2.5Model 47.7%Implied 50.8%-3.1%
- Moreirense – Estrela31 Oct 16:30Under 2.5Model 46.9%Implied 54.3%-7.4%
- FC Porto – Estoril31 Oct 21:30Under 2.5Model 41.1%Implied 40.0%▲ +1.1%
- Benfica – Alverca2 Nov 21:15Under 2.5Model 34.7%Implied 34.8%-0.2%
- Casa Pia – Sporting CP30 Oct 21:15Under 2.5Model 34.4%Implied 43.3%-8.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Braga– Famalicao | 1 Nov | 21:30 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 56.8% | ▲ +2.0% | 1.76 |
| 2 |  Arouca– Nacional | 1 Nov | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 47.7% | 50.8% | -3.1% | 1.97 |
| 3 |  Moreirense– Estrela | 31 Oct | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 54.3% | -7.4% | 1.84 |
| 4 |  FC Porto– Estoril | 31 Oct | 21:30 | Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 40.0% | ▲ +1.1% | 2.50 |
| 5 |  Benfica– Alverca | 2 Nov | 21:15 | Under 2.5 | 34.7% | 34.8% | -0.2% | 2.87 |
| 6 |  Casa Pia– Sporting CP | 30 Oct | 21:15 | Under 2.5 | 34.4% | 43.3% | -8.9% | 2.31 |
Model % is the pre-match estimated chance, not a live probability or a past hit rate.
Implied % comes from the odds. Divergence is the difference in percentage points.
Under 2.5 by team, 2026/27
How often each team's matches had two goals or fewer this season, highest first. Home and away: matches with two goals or fewer / matches played.
| Team | Played | Under 2.5 | % | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 9 | 7 | 78% | 5/5 | 2/4 |
| Casa Pia | 9 | 6 | 67% | 2/4 | 4/5 |
| Vitoria Guimaraes | 9 | 6 | 67% | 4/5 | 2/4 |
| Arouca | 9 | 5 | 56% | 1/4 | 4/5 |
| Estoril | 9 | 5 | 56% | 3/5 | 2/4 |
| Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 56% | 2/5 | 3/4 |
| Alverca | 9 | 4 | 44% | 3/5 | 1/4 |
| Braga | 9 | 4 | 44% | 2/4 | 2/5 |
| Famalicao | 9 | 4 | 44% | 2/4 | 2/5 |
| FC Porto | 9 | 4 | 44% | 2/4 | 2/5 |
| Nacional | 9 | 4 | 44% | 2/5 | 2/4 |
| Rio Ave | 9 | 4 | 44% | 1/5 | 3/4 |
| Academico Viseu | 9 | 3 | 33% | 1/4 | 2/5 |
| Estrela | 9 | 3 | 33% | 2/5 | 1/4 |
| Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 33% | 1/4 | 2/5 |
| Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 22% | 1/4 | 1/5 |
| Sporting CP | 9 | 2 | 22% | 1/5 | 1/4 |
| Benfica | 9 | 1 | 11% | 1/4 | 0/5 |
Latest results
Liga Portugal matches in the 7 days to Mon, 26 Oct 2026, the newest result.
- 26 OctSanta Clara 1:2 BenficaUnder 2.5 no
- 25 OctEstoril 1:3 MoreirenseUnder 2.5 no
- 25 OctNacional 1:0 BragaUnder 2.5 yes
- 25 OctRio Ave 0:4 FamalicaoUnder 2.5 no
- 25 OctSporting CP 1:2 Academico ViseuUnder 2.5 no
- 24 OctEstrela 0:2 Casa PiaUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctAlverca 0:1 AroucaUnder 2.5 yes
- 24 OctGil Vicente 0:1 FC PortoUnder 2.5 yes
- 23 OctVitoria Guimaraes 5:0 MaritimoUnder 2.5 no
Liga Portugal table, fixtures and season projection →
Under 2.5 Goals: by day
Under 2.5 Goals: by league
These rankings come from historical data alone — the market usually knows more. Every prediction is logged pre-match and settled in public. Statistics, not betting advice. 18+ · never stake more than you can afford to lose.