Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Union Berlin | 34 | 57 | 45.0 | +12.0Outperforming ++ | 10 | +8.7 | +3.4 | 1:2 vs RB Leipzig (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Greuther Furth (-1.7) |
2 | Bochum | 34 | 42 | 32.4 | +9.6Outperforming ++ | 15 | +8.3 | +1.3 | 4:2 vs Bayern Munich (+2.6) | 0:2 vs Augsburg (-1.6) |
3 | Freiburg | 34 | 55 | 47.5 | +7.5Outperforming ++ | 6 | +1.3 | +6.2 | 2:1 vs Dortmund (+2.1) | 1:4 vs Union Berlin (-1.8) |
4 | FC Koln | 34 | 52 | 45.1 | +6.9Outperforming ++ | 9 | +5.1 | +1.8 | 0:1 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Wolfsburg (-2.1) |
5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 64 | 57.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 4 | +0.4 | +6.2 | 1:3 vs RB Leipzig (+1.9) | 0:1 vs FC Koln (-1.9) |
6 | Dortmund | 34 | 69 | 63.9 | +5.1Outperforming ++ | 3 | +3.5 | +1.6 | 1:3 vs Wolfsburg (+1.6) | 3:4 vs Bochum (-2.2) |
7 | Augsburg | 34 | 38 | 34.3 | +3.7Outperforming | 14 | +4.3 | -0.6 | 2:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.7) | 0:1 vs Hertha Berlin (-1.7) |
8 | Mainz | 34 | 46 | 47.0 | -1.0On expectation | 7 | +8.5 | -9.5 | 1:0 vs RB Leipzig (+2.4) | 2:1 vs Greuther Furth (-1.8) |
9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 42 | 44.8 | -2.8Underperforming | 11 | -7.1 | +4.3 | 1:2 vs Bayern Munich (+2.8) | 0:2 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-1.9) |
10 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 33 | 35.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 13 | +0.5 | -3.4 | 3:2 vs Dortmund (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Greuther Furth (-1.4) |
11 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 28 | 31.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 16 | -2.6 | -0.8 | 0:2 vs RB Leipzig (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Augsburg (-1.4) |
12 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 77 | 80.9 | -3.9Underperforming | 1 | -2.3 | -1.6 | 1:4 vs RB Leipzig (+1.4) | 1:2 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.7) |
13 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 46 | 50.2 | -4.2Underperforming | 5 | -0.1 | -4.1 | 2:0 vs RB Leipzig (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Bochum (-2.2) |
14 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 42 | 46.3 | -4.3Underperforming | 8 | -2.9 | -1.4 | 0:1 vs FC Koln (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Stuttgart (-1.7) |
15 | Greuther Furth | 34 | 18 | 25.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 17 | -1.5 | -5.6 | 2:1 vs Mainz (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Bochum (-1.5) |
16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 33 | 41.2 | -8.2Underperforming −− | 12 | -1.8 | -6.3 | 0:2 vs Wolfsburg (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-1.7) |
17 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 58 | 66.7 | -8.7Underperforming −− | 2 | -1.0 | -7.8 | 1:4 vs Dortmund (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5) |
