Bundesliga 2022-2023 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Union Berlin	34	62	48.5	+13.5Outperforming ++	6	+11.6	+1.9	1:2 vs RB Leipzig (+2.1)	2:1 vs Bochum (-1.8)
2	Freiburg	34	59	47.6	+11.4Outperforming ++	7	+6.7	+4.6	2:3 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.1)	1:3 vs Dortmund (-1.2)
3	Dortmund	34	71	61.9	+9.1Outperforming ++	3	+9.5	-0.4	0:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+1.7)	2:3 vs Werder Bremen (-2.2)
4	Wolfsburg	34	49	45.6	+3.4Outperforming	10	-1.2	+4.6	0:1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.0)	1:2 vs Hertha Berlin (-2.4)
5	RB Leipzig	34	66	62.6	+3.4Outperforming	2	+6.0	-2.6	1:3 vs Bayern Munich (+2.3)	0:3 vs Mainz (-2.1)
6	Augsburg	34	34	31.6	+2.4Outperforming	17	+3.0	-0.6	1:0 vs Bayern Munich (+2.7)	0:1 vs Bochum (-1.4)
7	Bochum	34	35	32.6	+2.4Outperforming	16	+7.2	-4.9	1:0 vs RB Leipzig (+2.3)	0:2 vs Schalke (-1.4)
8	Mainz	34	46	45.9	+0.1On expectation	8	-2.5	+2.5	0:3 vs RB Leipzig (+2.3)	2:3 vs Schalke (-1.9)
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	50	50.1	-0.1On expectation	5	+3.4	-3.4	4:0 vs RB Leipzig (+1.9)	0:1 vs Wolfsburg (-1.8)
10	FC Koln	34	42	43.0	-1.1On expectation	12	-1.4	+0.4	1:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2)	0:2 vs Bochum (-1.9)
11	Schalke	34	31	33.2	-2.2Underperforming	15	+0.7	-2.9	2:3 vs Mainz (+2.2)	2:3 vs Augsburg (-1.7)
12	Werder Bremen	34	36	39.2	-3.2Underperforming	13	-6.5	+3.4	2:3 vs Dortmund (+2.4)	0:1 vs Augsburg (-2.1)
13	Bayer Leverkusen	34	50	55.3	-5.3Underperforming −−	4	-4.5	-0.8	2:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.1)	1:2 vs Augsburg (-2.4)
14	Hertha Berlin	34	29	35.2	-6.2Underperforming −−	14	+0.3	-6.5	1:2 vs Wolfsburg (+2.6)	2:4 vs Werder Bremen (-1.5)
15	Bayern Munich	34	71	78.9	-7.9Underperforming −−	1	-3.6	-4.3	0:2 vs Hoffenheim (+1.0)	1:0 vs Augsburg (-2.6)
16	Hoffenheim	34	36	44.1	-8.1Underperforming −−	11	-3.1	-5.0	0:3 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2)	1:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.7)
17	Stuttgart	34	33	45.6	-12.6Underperforming −−	9	-5.5	-7.2	1:4 vs Mainz (+1.6)	0:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.8)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Union Berlin	34	62	48.5	+13.5Outperforming ++	6	+11.6	+1.9	1:2 vs RB Leipzig (+2.1)	2:1 vs Bochum (-1.8)
2	Freiburg	34	59	47.6	+11.4Outperforming ++	7	+6.7	+4.6	2:3 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.1)	1:3 vs Dortmund (-1.2)
3	Dortmund	34	71	61.9	+9.1Outperforming ++	3	+9.5	-0.4	0:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+1.7)	2:3 vs Werder Bremen (-2.2)
4	Wolfsburg	34	49	45.6	+3.4Outperforming	10	-1.2	+4.6	0:1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.0)	1:2 vs Hertha Berlin (-2.4)
5	RB Leipzig	34	66	62.6	+3.4Outperforming	2	+6.0	-2.6	1:3 vs Bayern Munich (+2.3)	0:3 vs Mainz (-2.1)
6	Augsburg	34	34	31.6	+2.4Outperforming	17	+3.0	-0.6	1:0 vs Bayern Munich (+2.7)	0:1 vs Bochum (-1.4)
7	Bochum	34	35	32.6	+2.4Outperforming	16	+7.2	-4.9	1:0 vs RB Leipzig (+2.3)	0:2 vs Schalke (-1.4)
8	Mainz	34	46	45.9	+0.1On expectation	8	-2.5	+2.5	0:3 vs RB Leipzig (+2.3)	2:3 vs Schalke (-1.9)
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	50	50.1	-0.1On expectation	5	+3.4	-3.4	4:0 vs RB Leipzig (+1.9)	0:1 vs Wolfsburg (-1.8)
10	FC Koln	34	42	43.0	-1.1On expectation	12	-1.4	+0.4	1:2 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2)	0:2 vs Bochum (-1.9)
11	Schalke	34	31	33.2	-2.2Underperforming	15	+0.7	-2.9	2:3 vs Mainz (+2.2)	2:3 vs Augsburg (-1.7)
12	Werder Bremen	34	36	39.2	-3.2Underperforming	13	-6.5	+3.4	2:3 vs Dortmund (+2.4)	0:1 vs Augsburg (-2.1)
13	Bayer Leverkusen	34	50	55.3	-5.3Underperforming −−	4	-4.5	-0.8	2:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.1)	1:2 vs Augsburg (-2.4)
14	Hertha Berlin	34	29	35.2	-6.2Underperforming −−	14	+0.3	-6.5	1:2 vs Wolfsburg (+2.6)	2:4 vs Werder Bremen (-1.5)
15	Bayern Munich	34	71	78.9	-7.9Underperforming −−	1	-3.6	-4.3	0:2 vs Hoffenheim (+1.0)	1:0 vs Augsburg (-2.6)
16	Hoffenheim	34	36	44.1	-8.1Underperforming −−	11	-3.1	-5.0	0:3 vs Bayer Leverkusen (+2.2)	1:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.7)
17	Stuttgart	34	33	45.6	-12.6Underperforming −−	9	-5.5	-7.2	1:4 vs Mainz (+1.6)	0:2 vs Werder Bremen (-1.8)