Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 90 | 70.1 | +19.9Outperforming ++ | 2 | +6.3 | +13.6 | 2:3 vs RB Leipzig (+1.7) | 0:0 vs B. Monchengladbach (-1.5) |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 73 | 58.6 | +14.4Outperforming ++ | 4 | +8.9 | +5.5 | 0:1 vs Dortmund (+1.9) | 2:0 vs Heidenheim (-2.0) |
3 | Heidenheim | 34 | 42 | 33.7 | +8.3Outperforming ++ | 16 | +5.7 | +2.7 | 3:2 vs Bayern Munich (+2.4) | 2:5 vs Augsburg (-1.5) |
4 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 42 | 36.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 15 | +3.2 | +2.0 | 0:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.8) | 1:2 vs Heidenheim (-1.8) |
5 | Dortmund | 34 | 63 | 58.0 | +5.0Outperforming | 5 | -0.1 | +5.1 | 0:2 vs Bayern Munich (+2.4) | 2:3 vs Hoffenheim (-2.2) |
6 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 46 | 43.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 11 | -2.3 | +5.2 | 2:3 vs Dortmund (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Union Berlin (-1.8) |
7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 47 | 46.1 | +0.9On expectation | 6 | +2.2 | -1.3 | 5:1 vs Bayern Munich (+2.5) | 2:0 vs FC Koln (-1.4) |
8 | Augsburg | 34 | 39 | 39.8 | -0.8On expectation | 12 | +0.6 | -1.4 | 1:2 vs B. Monchengladbach (+2.0) | 0:3 vs Werder Bremen (-1.9) |
9 | Freiburg | 34 | 42 | 43.4 | -1.4On expectation | 9 | -3.1 | +1.6 | 0:3 vs B. Monchengladbach (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Wolfsburg (-1.5) |
10 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 | 66.9 | -1.9On expectation | 3 | +0.1 | -2.0 | 2:3 vs Dortmund (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.2) |
11 | Bochum | 34 | 33 | 37.3 | -4.3Underperforming | 13 | +0.9 | -5.2 | 3:2 vs Bayern Munich (+2.4) | 1:3 vs B. Monchengladbach (-1.5) |
12 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 72 | 77.3 | -5.3Underperforming −− | 1 | +1.3 | -6.6 | 0:4 vs Dortmund (+1.2) | 0:1 vs Werder Bremen (-2.7) |
13 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 37 | 44.6 | -7.6Underperforming −− | 8 | -3.6 | -4.0 | 2:1 vs RB Leipzig (+2.0) | 1:3 vs B. Monchengladbach (-1.7) |
14 | Darmstadt | 34 | 17 | 26.8 | -9.8Underperforming −− | 17 | -10.5 | +0.8 | 0:2 vs FC Koln (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Bochum (-1.5) |
15 | Mainz | 34 | 35 | 45.1 | -10.2Underperforming −− | 7 | -3.5 | -6.6 | 2:0 vs RB Leipzig (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Heidenheim (-1.9) |
16 | Union Berlin | 34 | 33 | 43.2 | -10.2Underperforming −− | 10 | -2.5 | -7.7 | 0:1 vs Hoffenheim (+2.0) | 3:4 vs Bochum (-1.7) |
17 | FC Koln | 34 | 27 | 37.3 | -10.3Underperforming −− | 14 | -6.5 | -3.8 | 2:0 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Darmstadt (-2.2) |
