Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +44.6% at market prices across 72 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Den Haag produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II2026-10-17 19:00Under 1.5 HTModel 75.7%Implied 59.9%▲ +15.8%- Twente – Utrecht2026-10-18 18:00Under 1.5 HTModel 66.3%Implied 54.3%▲ +11.9%
- Groningen – Ajax2026-10-18 14:45FT U3.5Model 64.5%Implied 53.5%▲ +11.1%
- Telstar – Feyenoord2026-10-17 18:00FT U3.5Model 61.0%Implied 51.3%▲ +9.8%
- Heerenveen – Excelsior2026-10-16 18:00Away winModel 27.8%Implied 21.8%▲ +6.0%
- Nijmegen – Sittard2026-10-18 18:00FT U3.5Model 56.4%Implied 53.8%▲ +2.7%
- Zwolle – G.A. Eagles2026-10-18 10:15Under 1.5 HTModel 60.2%Implied 58.8%▲ +1.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sparta Rotterdam– Willem II | 2026-10-17 | 19:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.7% | 59.9% | ▲ +15.8% | 1.67 |
| 2 |  Twente– Utrecht | 2026-10-18 | 18:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.3% | 54.3% | ▲ +11.9% | 1.84 |
| 3 |  Groningen– Ajax | 2026-10-18 | 14:45 | FT U3.5 | 64.5% | 53.5% | ▲ +11.1% | 1.87 |
| 4 |  Telstar– Feyenoord | 2026-10-17 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 | 61.0% | 51.3% | ▲ +9.8% | 1.95 |
| 5 |  Heerenveen– Excelsior | 2026-10-16 | 18:00 | Away win | 27.8% | 21.8% | ▲ +6.0% | 4.58 |
| 6 |  Nijmegen– Sittard | 2026-10-18 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 | 56.4% | 53.8% | ▲ +2.7% | 1.86 |
| 7 |  Zwolle– G.A. Eagles | 2026-10-18 | 10:15 | Under 1.5 HT | 60.2% | 58.8% | ▲ +1.4% | 1.70 |
Add Eredivisie fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining Eredivisie schedule 10,000 times a day. PSV win the 2026-2027 title in 75% of them, projecting ~79 points; Feyenoord are next at 22%. At the other end, Willem II finish in the bottom three in 88% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Feyenoord's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV | 19 | 79 | 72–86 | ▼75% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 20 | 73 | 65–80 | ▲22% | 98% | — |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 19 | 63 | 54–71 | 1% | 63% | — |
| 4 | Ajax | 15 | 63 | 55–70 | 1% | 66% | — |
| 5 | Twente | 17 | 62 | 54–70 | <1% | 57% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Zwolle | 4 | 29 | 21–37 | — | — | 57% |
| 17 | Den Haag | 3 | 26 | 19–33 | — | — | 75% |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 23 | 16–30 | — | — | 88% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 234 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Eredivisie match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 20 | 17.2 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | PSV | 19 | 17.0 | +2.0 | |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 19 | 15.7 | +3.3 | |
| 4 | Twente | 17 | 16.3 | +0.7 | |
| 5 | Ajax | 15 | 17.3 | -2.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Zwolle | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | |
| 17 | Den Haag | 3 | 8.1 | -5.1 | |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+