Fastest starters
AZ Alkmaar26%
15 of their 58 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Sparta Rotterdam40%
16 of their 40 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2024-2025Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−3.2u
281 leans · 50.2% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
🏆
PSV are 2025-2026 champions — 84 pts
Their xPTS said 72.6: a title won, outperforming the market.
2026-27
next season soon
The season in numbers
The outlier
+226.9uBlindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-12.1 ptsHeracles produced performances worth 12 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
43%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.9' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Eredivisie match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 84 | 72.6 | +11.4 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 65 | 65.9 | -0.9 | |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 59 | 53.4 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdown
Follow the Eredivisie
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+