Biggest divergence
Ajax – Willem II+16.9%
FT U3.5 · data 60% vs market 43%
Fastest starters
Groningen27%
3 of their 11 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
G.A. Eagles43%
6 of their 14 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2025-2026Backtest
Every lean, backed blind−48.7u
776 leans · 45.2% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
The season in numbers
The outlier
+13.7uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-4.0 ptsUtrecht produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
52%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Ajax – Willem II2026-09-15 18:00FT U3.560.0%vs 43.1%▲ +16.9%- Sittard – Ajax2026-09-12 18:00FT U3.5 ✓64.8%vs 54.1%▲ +10.8%
- Heerenveen – Telstar2026-09-13 12:30Under 1.5 HT ✓66.3%vs 57.1%▲ +9.2%
- Groningen – Zwolle2026-09-18 18:00FT U3.5 ✓64.5%vs 59.2%▲ +5.3%
- G.A. Eagles – Groningen2026-09-12 16:45FT U3.5 ✓62.0%vs 56.8%▲ +5.2%
- PSV – Sparta Rotterdam2026-09-13 18:00Under 1.5 HT ✓50.6%vs 45.9%▲ +4.7%
- Excelsior – Utrecht2026-09-13 10:15Away win ✓37.5%vs 33.4%▲ +4.0%
- Zwolle – Feyenoord2026-09-13 14:45FT U3.5 ✓56.6%vs 52.9%▲ +3.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ajax– Willem II | 2026-09-15 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 | 60.0% | 43.1% | ▲ +16.9% | 2.32 | |
| 2 |  Sittard–Ajax | 2026-09-12 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 64.8% | 54.1% | ▲ +10.8% | 1.85 | |
| 3 |  Heerenveen– Telstar | 2026-09-13 | 12:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 66.3% | 57.1% | ▲ +9.2% | 1.75 | |
| 4 |  Groningen– Zwolle | 2026-09-18 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 64.5% | 59.2% | ▲ +5.3% | 1.69 | |
| 5 |  G.A. Eagles–Groningen | 2026-09-12 | 16:45 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 62.0% | 56.8% | ▲ +5.2% | 1.76 | |
| 6 |  PSV– Sparta Rotterdam | 2026-09-13 | 18:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 50.6% | 45.9% | ▲ +4.7% | 2.18 | |
| 7 |  Excelsior– Utrecht | 2026-09-13 | 10:15 | Away win ✓ | 37.5% | 33.4% | ▲ +4.0% | 2.99 | |
| 8 | Zwolle– Feyenoord | 2026-09-13 | 14:45 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 56.6% | 52.9% | ▲ +3.7% | 1.89 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Eredivisie schedule 10,000 times a day. PSV win the 2026-2027 title in 89% of them, projecting ~80 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Cambuur finish in the bottom three in 99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 13 | 80 | 73–88 | 89% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 11 | 67 | 58–75 | 6% | 85% | — |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 15 | 65 | 57–74 | 3% | 78% | — |
| 4 | Ajax | 7 | 63 | 54–71 | 2% | 66% | — |
| 5 |  Twente | 10 | 59 | 51–68 | <1% | 42% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Den Haag | 1 | 27 | 19–35 | — | — | 78% |
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 26 | 19–34 | — | — | 80% |
| 18 | Cambuur | 1 | 18 | 11–25 | — | — | 99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 262 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/netherlands/eredivisie/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Eredivisie live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/netherlands/eredivisie">Eredivisie stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Eredivisie match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +13.7u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: +13.7 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Draws▲ +9.0u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: +9.0 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▲ +8.9u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: +8.9 units over 44 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▲ +3.0u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: +3.0 units over 44 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -8.5u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: -8.5 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -24.3u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: -24.3 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -24.9u
44 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Eredivisie match in 2026-2027: -24.9 units over 44 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 15 | 9.8 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | PSV | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 11 | 10.8 | +0.2 | |
| 4 | Excelsior | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | |
| 5 | Twente | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Den Haag | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | |
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | |
| 18 | Cambuur | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+