Eredivisie 2025-2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	PSV	34	84	72.6	+11.4Outperforming ++	1	+1.5	+9.9	2:3 vs Feyenoord (+1.7)	0:2 vs Telstar (-2.7)
2	Nijmegen	34	59	53.4	+5.6Outperforming ++	6	+0.8	+4.8	2:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	2:3 vs Sittard (-2.2)
3	Sittard	34	39	35.0	+4.0Outperforming	16	+4.1	-0.1	2:3 vs Nijmegen (+2.4)	1:4 vs Telstar (-1.5)
4	Utrecht	34	53	50.1	+2.9Outperforming	7	+3.3	-0.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.2)	0:1 vs Groningen (-1.9)
5	FC Volendam	34	32	29.2	+2.8Outperforming	18	+4.9	-2.1	2:1 vs PSV (+2.6)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-1.5)
6	Heerenveen	34	51	48.5	+2.5Outperforming	8	+1.6	+0.9	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+1.7)	2:1 vs Zwolle (-1.8)
7	Excelsior	34	38	36.4	+1.6On expectation	13	-3.6	+5.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.5)	1:2 vs Heracles (-1.8)
8	Zwolle	34	37	35.6	+1.4On expectation	15	+6.7	-5.3	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+2.3)	1:2 vs FC Volendam (-2.0)
9	Telstar	34	37	35.8	+1.2On expectation	14	-1.6	+2.8	0:2 vs PSV (+2.7)	1:3 vs Sittard (-1.6)
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	43	42.6	+0.4On expectation	10	-1.8	+2.2	3:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.3)	2:3 vs Excelsior (-1.6)
11	Groningen	34	48	48.5	-0.5On expectation	9	-3.2	+2.7	0:1 vs Utrecht (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sittard (-2.1)
12	Feyenoord	34	65	65.9	-0.9On expectation	2	-0.7	-0.2	0:1 vs Utrecht (+1.4)	2:1 vs G.A. Eagles (-2.2)
13	Twente	34	58	61.0	-3.0Underperforming	3	-2.1	-0.9	1:2 vs Ajax (+1.8)	0:2 vs Utrecht (-2.0)
14	G.A. Eagles	34	38	41.3	-3.3Underperforming	11	+0.8	-4.2	2:1 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	0:3 vs Sparta Rotterdam (-1.7)
15	Ajax	34	56	60.8	-4.8Underperforming	4	-2.8	-2.0	2:0 vs Feyenoord (+1.9)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-2.3)
16	AZ Alkmaar	34	52	60.0	-8.0Underperforming −−	5	-2.9	-5.1	0:2 vs Ajax (+1.9)	3:1 vs Zwolle (-2.1)
17	NAC Breda	34	29	40.3	-11.3Underperforming −−	12	-3.8	-7.5	2:0 vs Heerenveen (+1.6)	0:1 vs Telstar (-1.8)
18	Heracles	34	19	31.1	-12.1Underperforming −−	17	-3.9	-8.2	1:2 vs Excelsior (+2.0)	0:2 vs FC Volendam (-1.5)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	PSV	34	84	72.6	+11.4Outperforming ++	1	+1.5	+9.9	2:3 vs Feyenoord (+1.7)	0:2 vs Telstar (-2.7)
2	Nijmegen	34	59	53.4	+5.6Outperforming ++	6	+0.8	+4.8	2:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	2:3 vs Sittard (-2.2)
3	Sittard	34	39	35.0	+4.0Outperforming	16	+4.1	-0.1	2:3 vs Nijmegen (+2.4)	1:4 vs Telstar (-1.5)
4	Utrecht	34	53	50.1	+2.9Outperforming	7	+3.3	-0.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.2)	0:1 vs Groningen (-1.9)
5	FC Volendam	34	32	29.2	+2.8Outperforming	18	+4.9	-2.1	2:1 vs PSV (+2.6)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-1.5)
6	Heerenveen	34	51	48.5	+2.5Outperforming	8	+1.6	+0.9	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+1.7)	2:1 vs Zwolle (-1.8)
7	Excelsior	34	38	36.4	+1.6On expectation	13	-3.6	+5.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.5)	1:2 vs Heracles (-1.8)
8	Zwolle	34	37	35.6	+1.4On expectation	15	+6.7	-5.3	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+2.3)	1:2 vs FC Volendam (-2.0)
9	Telstar	34	37	35.8	+1.2On expectation	14	-1.6	+2.8	0:2 vs PSV (+2.7)	1:3 vs Sittard (-1.6)
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	43	42.6	+0.4On expectation	10	-1.8	+2.2	3:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.3)	2:3 vs Excelsior (-1.6)
11	Groningen	34	48	48.5	-0.5On expectation	9	-3.2	+2.7	0:1 vs Utrecht (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sittard (-2.1)
12	Feyenoord	34	65	65.9	-0.9On expectation	2	-0.7	-0.2	0:1 vs Utrecht (+1.4)	2:1 vs G.A. Eagles (-2.2)
13	Twente	34	58	61.0	-3.0Underperforming	3	-2.1	-0.9	1:2 vs Ajax (+1.8)	0:2 vs Utrecht (-2.0)
14	G.A. Eagles	34	38	41.3	-3.3Underperforming	11	+0.8	-4.2	2:1 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	0:3 vs Sparta Rotterdam (-1.7)
15	Ajax	34	56	60.8	-4.8Underperforming	4	-2.8	-2.0	2:0 vs Feyenoord (+1.9)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-2.3)
16	AZ Alkmaar	34	52	60.0	-8.0Underperforming −−	5	-2.9	-5.1	0:2 vs Ajax (+1.9)	3:1 vs Zwolle (-2.1)
17	NAC Breda	34	29	40.3	-11.3Underperforming −−	12	-3.8	-7.5	2:0 vs Heerenveen (+1.6)	0:1 vs Telstar (-1.8)
18	Heracles	34	19	31.1	-12.1Underperforming −−	17	-3.9	-8.2	1:2 vs Excelsior (+2.0)	0:2 vs FC Volendam (-1.5)