Eredivisie 2025-2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	PSV	34	84	72.6	+11.4Outperforming ++	1	+1.5	+9.9	2:3 vs Feyenoord (+1.7)	0:2 vs Telstar (-2.7)
2	Nijmegen	34	59	53.4	+5.6Outperforming ++	6	+0.8	+4.8	2:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	2:3 vs Sittard (-2.2)
3	Sittard	34	39	35.0	+4.0Outperforming	16	+4.1	-0.1	2:3 vs Nijmegen (+2.4)	1:4 vs Telstar (-1.5)
4	Utrecht	35	56	53.0	+3.0Outperforming	7	+4.5	-0.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.2)	0:1 vs Groningen (-1.9)
5	FC Volendam	35	35	32.0	+3.0Outperforming	17	+4.9	-0.3	2:1 vs PSV (+2.6)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-1.5)
6	Willem II	5	10	8.2	+1.9On expectation	20	-0.7	+3.7	0:1 vs Almere City (+1.9)	1:2 vs FC Volendam (-1.5)
7	Excelsior	34	38	36.4	+1.6On expectation	13	-3.6	+5.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.5)	1:2 vs Heracles (-1.8)
8	Heerenveen	35	51	49.5	+1.5On expectation	8	+1.6	-0.1	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+1.7)	2:1 vs Zwolle (-1.8)
9	Zwolle	34	37	35.6	+1.4On expectation	15	+6.7	-5.3	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+2.3)	1:2 vs FC Volendam (-2.0)
10	Telstar	34	37	35.8	+1.2On expectation	14	-1.6	+2.8	0:2 vs PSV (+2.7)	1:3 vs Sittard (-1.6)
11	Almere City	6	10	9.2	+0.8On expectation	19	+0.8	+0.0	2:3 vs Den Bosch (+1.5)	0:1 vs Willem II (-1.6)
12	Sparta Rotterdam	34	43	42.6	+0.4On expectation	10	-1.8	+2.2	3:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.3)	2:3 vs Excelsior (-1.6)
13	Feyenoord	34	65	65.9	-0.9On expectation	2	-0.7	-0.2	0:1 vs Utrecht (+1.4)	2:1 vs G.A. Eagles (-2.2)
14	Groningen	35	48	49.4	-1.4On expectation	9	-3.2	+1.8	0:1 vs Utrecht (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sittard (-2.1)
15	Roda	1	1	2.5	-1.5On expectation	23	-0.5	0.0	1:1 vs Waalwijk (+-0.5)	1:1 vs Waalwijk (-0.5)
16	De Graafschap	2	1	2.6	-1.6On expectation	22	-0.6	-1.1	2:2 vs Almere City (+-0.6)	3:1 vs Almere City (-1.1)
17	Den Bosch	2	0	2.1	-2.1Underperforming	24	-1.3	-0.9	3:0 vs Almere City (+-0.9)	2:3 vs Almere City (-1.3)
18	Twente	34	58	61.0	-3.0Underperforming	4	-2.1	-0.9	1:2 vs Ajax (+1.8)	0:2 vs Utrecht (-2.0)
19	G.A. Eagles	34	38	41.3	-3.3Underperforming	11	+0.8	-4.2	2:1 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	0:3 vs Sparta Rotterdam (-1.7)
20	Waalwijk	3	2	5.6	-3.6Underperforming	21	-1.5	-0.3	1:1 vs Willem II (+-0.1)	0:1 vs Willem II (-1.5)
21	Ajax	35	59	64.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	3	-1.6	-2.0	2:0 vs Feyenoord (+1.9)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-2.3)
22	AZ Alkmaar	34	52	60.0	-8.0Underperforming −−	5	-2.9	-5.1	0:2 vs Ajax (+1.9)	3:1 vs Zwolle (-2.1)
23	NAC Breda	34	29	40.3	-11.3Underperforming −−	12	-3.8	-7.5	2:0 vs Heerenveen (+1.6)	0:1 vs Telstar (-1.8)
24	Heracles	34	19	31.1	-12.1Underperforming −−	18	-3.9	-8.2	1:2 vs Excelsior (+2.0)	0:2 vs FC Volendam (-1.5)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	PSV	34	84	72.6	+11.4Outperforming ++	1	+1.5	+9.9	2:3 vs Feyenoord (+1.7)	0:2 vs Telstar (-2.7)
2	Nijmegen	34	59	53.4	+5.6Outperforming ++	6	+0.8	+4.8	2:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	2:3 vs Sittard (-2.2)
3	Sittard	34	39	35.0	+4.0Outperforming	16	+4.1	-0.1	2:3 vs Nijmegen (+2.4)	1:4 vs Telstar (-1.5)
4	Utrecht	35	56	53.0	+3.0Outperforming	7	+4.5	-0.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.2)	0:1 vs Groningen (-1.9)
5	FC Volendam	35	35	32.0	+3.0Outperforming	17	+4.9	-0.3	2:1 vs PSV (+2.6)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-1.5)
6	Willem II	5	10	8.2	+1.9On expectation	20	-0.7	+3.7	0:1 vs Almere City (+1.9)	1:2 vs FC Volendam (-1.5)
7	Excelsior	34	38	36.4	+1.6On expectation	13	-3.6	+5.3	1:2 vs Ajax (+2.5)	1:2 vs Heracles (-1.8)
8	Heerenveen	35	51	49.5	+1.5On expectation	8	+1.6	-0.1	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+1.7)	2:1 vs Zwolle (-1.8)
9	Zwolle	34	37	35.6	+1.4On expectation	15	+6.7	-5.3	3:1 vs AZ Alkmaar (+2.3)	1:2 vs FC Volendam (-2.0)
10	Telstar	34	37	35.8	+1.2On expectation	14	-1.6	+2.8	0:2 vs PSV (+2.7)	1:3 vs Sittard (-1.6)
11	Almere City	6	10	9.2	+0.8On expectation	19	+0.8	+0.0	2:3 vs Den Bosch (+1.5)	0:1 vs Willem II (-1.6)
12	Sparta Rotterdam	34	43	42.6	+0.4On expectation	10	-1.8	+2.2	3:4 vs Feyenoord (+2.3)	2:3 vs Excelsior (-1.6)
13	Feyenoord	34	65	65.9	-0.9On expectation	2	-0.7	-0.2	0:1 vs Utrecht (+1.4)	2:1 vs G.A. Eagles (-2.2)
14	Groningen	35	48	49.4	-1.4On expectation	9	-3.2	+1.8	0:1 vs Utrecht (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sittard (-2.1)
15	Roda	1	1	2.5	-1.5On expectation	23	-0.5	0.0	1:1 vs Waalwijk (+-0.5)	1:1 vs Waalwijk (-0.5)
16	De Graafschap	2	1	2.6	-1.6On expectation	22	-0.6	-1.1	2:2 vs Almere City (+-0.6)	3:1 vs Almere City (-1.1)
17	Den Bosch	2	0	2.1	-2.1Underperforming	24	-1.3	-0.9	3:0 vs Almere City (+-0.9)	2:3 vs Almere City (-1.3)
18	Twente	34	58	61.0	-3.0Underperforming	4	-2.1	-0.9	1:2 vs Ajax (+1.8)	0:2 vs Utrecht (-2.0)
19	G.A. Eagles	34	38	41.3	-3.3Underperforming	11	+0.8	-4.2	2:1 vs Feyenoord (+2.4)	0:3 vs Sparta Rotterdam (-1.7)
20	Waalwijk	3	2	5.6	-3.6Underperforming	21	-1.5	-0.3	1:1 vs Willem II (+-0.1)	0:1 vs Willem II (-1.5)
21	Ajax	35	59	64.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	3	-1.6	-2.0	2:0 vs Feyenoord (+1.9)	1:2 vs Excelsior (-2.3)
22	AZ Alkmaar	34	52	60.0	-8.0Underperforming −−	5	-2.9	-5.1	0:2 vs Ajax (+1.9)	3:1 vs Zwolle (-2.1)
23	NAC Breda	34	29	40.3	-11.3Underperforming −−	12	-3.8	-7.5	2:0 vs Heerenveen (+1.6)	0:1 vs Telstar (-1.8)
24	Heracles	34	19	31.1	-12.1Underperforming −−	18	-3.9	-8.2	1:2 vs Excelsior (+2.0)	0:2 vs FC Volendam (-1.5)