Eredivisie title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Netherlands · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: PSV (59%), Feyenoord (37%), Ajax (3%). 78 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV | 9 | 19 | 7669–83 | 59% | 59 from 25 (2.36/game) |
| Feyenoord | 9 | 23 | 7466–81 | 37% | 55 from 25 (2.20/game) |
| Ajax | 9 | 18 | 6456–72 | 3% | 60 from 25 (2.40/game) |
| AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 20 | 6153–69 | 1% | 58 from 25 (2.32/game) |
Below 1%: Twente, Utrecht, Groningen, Nijmegen, Heerenveen, G.A. Eagles, Sittard, Excelsior, Sparta Rotterdam, Telstar, Den Haag, Cambuur, Zwolle, Willem II.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 225 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).