Eredivisie title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Netherlands · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 5 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: PSV (77%), Feyenoord (17%), AZ Alkmaar (3%). 78 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV | 7 | 16 | 7971–86 | 77% | 62 from 27 (2.30/game) |
| Feyenoord | 7 | 17 | 7163–79 | 17% | 61 from 27 (2.26/game) |
| AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 19 | 6455–72 | 3% | 59 from 27 (2.19/game) |
| Ajax | 7 | 14 | 6456–72 | 2% | 64 from 27 (2.37/game) |
| Twente | 7 | 16 | 6354–71 | 1% | 62 from 27 (2.30/game) |
Below 1%: Nijmegen, G.A. Eagles, Groningen, Utrecht, Excelsior, Heerenveen, Sittard, Telstar, Sparta Rotterdam, Zwolle, Cambuur, Willem II, Den Haag.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 243 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).