Bundesliga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Bayern Munich (93%), Dortmund (4%), Bayer Leverkusen (3%). 76 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 6 | 14 | 8174–88 | 93% | 62 from 28 (2.21/game) |
| Dortmund | 6 | 14 | 6658–74 | 4% | 62 from 28 (2.21/game) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 13 | 6556–73 | 3% | 63 from 28 (2.25/game) |
Below 1%: RB Leipzig, Stuttgart, Elversberg, Freiburg, Mainz, Eintracht Frankfurt, Augsburg, Hoffenheim, Werder Bremen, Hamburger SV, FC Koln, Schalke, Paderborn, Union Berlin, B. Monchengladbach.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 252 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).