Bundesliga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Bayern Munich (90%), Dortmund (8%), Bayer Leverkusen (1%). 77 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 4 | 10 | 8174–88 | 90% | 67 from 30 (2.23/game) |
| Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 6960–77 | 8% | 65 from 30 (2.17/game) |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 6153–70 | 1% | 70 from 30 (2.33/game) |
Below 1%: Elversberg, RB Leipzig, Stuttgart, Freiburg, Mainz, Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim, Augsburg, Schalke, Werder Bremen, Paderborn, FC Koln, B. Monchengladbach, Hamburger SV, Union Berlin.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 270 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).