Ligue 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
France · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: PSG (82%), Monaco (5%), Lyon (5%). 70 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 7 | 14 | 7264–80 | 82% | 56 from 27 (2.07/game) |
| Monaco | 7 | 14 | 5951–68 | 5% | 56 from 27 (2.07/game) |
| Lyon | 7 | 14 | 5850–67 | 5% | 56 from 27 (2.07/game) |
| Lille | 7 | 14 | 5849–66 | 3% | 56 from 27 (2.07/game) |
| Lens | 7 | 10 | 5547–64 | 2% | 60 from 27 (2.22/game) |
| Marseille | 7 | 9 | 5446–63 | 1% | 61 from 27 (2.26/game) |
| Rennes | 7 | 13 | 5445–62 | 1% | 57 from 27 (2.11/game) |
Below 1%: Paris FC, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Lorient, Nice, Brest, Auxerre, Le Mans, Angers, Le Havre, Troyes.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 242 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).