LaLiga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Barcelona (88%), Real Madrid (10%), Atl. Madrid (2%). 87 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 7 | 21 | 9182–98 | 88% | 66 from 31 (2.13/game) |
| Real Madrid | 7 | 15 | 7971–88 | 10% | 72 from 31 (2.32/game) |
| Atl. Madrid | 7 | 16 | 7364–81 | 2% | 71 from 31 (2.29/game) |
Below 1%: Betis, Villarreal, Ath Bilbao, Real Sociedad, Sevilla, Dep. A Coruna, Alaves, Celta Vigo, Rayo Vallecano, Osasuna, Levante, Espanyol, Elche, Getafe, Valencia, Racing Santander, Malaga.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 311 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).