Liga Portugalhub →Liga Portugal 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | FC Porto | 34 | 88 | 75.3 | +12.8Outperforming ++ | 3 | +5.1 | +7.7 | 1:2 vs Sporting CP (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Casa Pia (-2.4) |
2 | Moreirense | 34 | 43 | 37.0 | +6.0Outperforming ++ | 13 | +6.7 | -0.6 | 0:1 vs Santa Clara (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Arouca (-1.4) |
3 | Arouca | 34 | 42 | 36.3 | +5.7Outperforming ++ | 15 | +4.9 | +0.8 | 1:3 vs Gil Vicente (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Casa Pia (-1.7) |
4 | Famalicao | 34 | 56 | 52.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 5 | +2.0 | +1.7 | 1:2 vs Vitoria Guimaraes (+1.7) | 2:3 vs Estrela (-2.2) |
5 | Benfica | 34 | 80 | 76.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 2 | -1.6 | +5.0 | 1:2 vs Sporting CP (+1.9) | 1:1 vs Rio Ave (-1.6) |
6 | Sporting CP | 34 | 82 | 78.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 1 | -0.3 | +3.6 | 1:2 vs Famalicao (+0.9) | 1:2 vs FC Porto (-1.7) |
7 | Rio Ave | 34 | 36 | 34.3 | +1.7On expectation | 16 | -4.7 | +6.5 | 0:2 vs Santa Clara (+2.2) | 0:4 vs Estoril (-1.6) |
8 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 50 | 48.8 | +1.2On expectation | 6 | +3.5 | -2.3 | 0:1 vs Braga (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Arouca (-2.0) |
9 | Alverca | 34 | 39 | 37.8 | +1.2On expectation | 11 | +4.2 | -3.0 | 1:0 vs Famalicao (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Arouca (-1.5) |
10 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6On expectation | 19 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 0:0 vs Casa Pia (+-0.4) | 2:0 vs Casa Pia (-1.2) |
11 | Estoril | 34 | 39 | 41.0 | -2.0On expectation | 9 | +0.1 | -2.1 | 1:0 vs Braga (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Rio Ave (-1.9) |
12 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 42 | 44.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 8 | +2.8 | -5.7 | 0:1 vs Gil Vicente (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Casa Pia (-1.9) |
13 | Braga | 34 | 59 | 62.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | 1:2 vs Famalicao (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Nacional (-2.2) |
14 | Casa Pia | 36 | 34 | 37.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 12 | -3.5 | +0.0 | 2:1 vs FC Porto (+2.6) | 0:2 vs Nacional (-1.6) |
15 | Estrela | 34 | 30 | 33.9 | -3.9Underperforming | 17 | -1.2 | -2.7 | 2:3 vs Famalicao (+2.4) | 3:2 vs Moreirense (-1.4) |
16 | Nacional | 34 | 34 | 39.0 | -5.0Underperforming −− | 10 | -2.9 | -2.1 | 0:1 vs Braga (+2.4) | 1:2 vs AFS (-2.1) |
17 | AFS | 34 | 21 | 27.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 18 | -3.9 | -2.9 | 3:1 vs FC Porto (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Arouca (-1.4) |
18 | Tondela | 34 | 28 | 36.4 | -8.4Underperforming −− | 14 | -7.5 | -0.9 | 0:1 vs Gil Vicente (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Rio Ave (-1.6) |
19 | Santa Clara | 34 | 36 | 46.0 | -10.0Underperforming −− | 7 | -2.6 | -7.4 | 2:1 vs Braga (+1.6) | 0:2 vs Rio Ave (-1.9) |