Serie Ahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | AC Milan | 38 | 86 | 69.7 | +16.3Outperforming ++ | 5 | +2.0 | +14.3 | 1:2 vs Inter (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Spezia (-2.4) |
2 | Napoli | 38 | 79 | 70.8 | +8.2Outperforming ++ | 4 | -3.1 | +11.3 | 0:1 vs AC Milan (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Spezia (-2.4) |
3 | Inter | 38 | 84 | 80.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 1 | +1.9 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Juventus (+1.6) | 0:2 vs Sassuolo (-2.4) |
4 | Fiorentina | 38 | 62 | 58.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 8 | +7.6 | -4.5 | 1:2 vs Atalanta (+2.2) | 4:1 vs Sampdoria (-2.1) |
5 | Verona | 38 | 53 | 50.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 9 | +0.8 | +1.4 | 1:2 vs Atalanta (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Salernitana (-2.3) |
6 | Lazio | 38 | 64 | 62.4 | +1.6On expectation | 7 | +1.0 | +0.6 | 3:1 vs Inter (+1.8) | 3:0 vs Bologna (-1.5) |
7 | Spezia | 38 | 36 | 34.6 | +1.4On expectation | 18 | -2.3 | +3.7 | 0:1 vs Napoli (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Bologna (-1.2) |
8 | Empoli | 38 | 41 | 40.0 | +1.1On expectation | 15 | -6.5 | +7.5 | 0:1 vs Atalanta (+2.7) | 1:2 vs Venezia (-1.9) |
9 | Bologna | 38 | 46 | 45.1 | +0.9On expectation | 13 | +1.5 | -0.7 | 2:1 vs Inter (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Venezia (-2.0) |
10 | Sassuolo | 38 | 50 | 49.2 | +0.8On expectation | 11 | -4.4 | +5.2 | 0:2 vs Inter (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Empoli (-1.9) |
11 | Torino | 38 | 50 | 49.6 | +0.4On expectation | 10 | +0.9 | -0.5 | 0:1 vs Sassuolo (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Venezia (-2.1) |
12 | Udinese | 38 | 47 | 46.8 | +0.2On expectation | 12 | -2.1 | +2.3 | 0:4 vs Fiorentina (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Salernitana (-2.0) |
13 | Salernitana | 38 | 31 | 31.1 | -0.1On expectation | 20 | -3.5 | +3.4 | 1:2 vs Verona (+2.5) | 0:4 vs Udinese (-1.8) |
14 | AS Roma | 38 | 63 | 64.6 | -1.6On expectation | 6 | +0.4 | -2.0 | 1:4 vs Atalanta (+2.1) | 3:2 vs Venezia (-2.0) |
15 | Juventus | 38 | 70 | 72.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 2 | -4.8 | +2.5 | 0:2 vs Lazio (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Empoli (-2.5) |
16 | Venezia | 38 | 27 | 32.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 19 | -5.4 | +0.2 | 1:2 vs Torino (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Salernitana (-1.7) |
17 | Sampdoria | 38 | 36 | 41.7 | -5.7Underperforming −− | 14 | -3.1 | -2.6 | 4:1 vs Fiorentina (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Cagliari (-1.9) |
18 | Cagliari | 38 | 30 | 38.0 | -8.0Underperforming −− | 17 | -7.5 | -0.4 | 1:2 vs Atalanta (+2.6) | 0:2 vs Empoli (-1.7) |
19 | Genoa | 38 | 28 | 38.8 | -10.8Underperforming −− | 16 | -5.8 | -5.0 | 2:3 vs Cagliari (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Bologna (-1.8) |
20 | Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 70.9 | -11.9Underperforming −− | 3 | -18.9 | +6.9 | 0:1 vs Juventus (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Empoli (-2.6) |
