The season in numbers
Blindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Al Taawon produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.6' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Neom SC – Al Fateh2026-09-13 16:20Under 2.5 ✓55.3%vs 43.7%▲ +11.6%- Al Taawon – Al Hilal2026-09-12 15:50Home win ✓16.8%vs 9.2%▲ +7.6%
- Al Shabab – Al Fayha2026-09-12 18:00Under 2.5 ✓48.3%vs 44.4%▲ +3.9%
- Al Riyadh – Al Kholood2026-09-13 18:00Over 1.5 HT ✓41.7%vs 37.9%▲ +3.9%
- Al Ahli SC – Al Hazem2026-09-11 18:00Draw17.4%vs 16.7%▲ +0.8%
- Al Khaleej – Al Nassr2026-09-12 18:00Home win9.7%vs 8.9%▲ +0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neom SC– Al Fateh | 2026-09-13 | 16:20 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.3% | 43.7% | ▲ +11.6% | 2.29 | |
| 2 |  Al Taawon– Al Hilal | 2026-09-12 | 15:50 | Home win ✓ | 16.8% | 9.2% | ▲ +7.6% | 10.83 | |
| 3 |  Al Shabab– Al Fayha | 2026-09-12 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 48.3% | 44.4% | ▲ +3.9% | 2.25 | |
| 4 |  Al Riyadh– Al Kholood | 2026-09-13 | 18:00 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 41.7% | 37.9% | ▲ +3.9% | 2.64 | |
| 5 |  Al Ahli SC– Al Hazem | 2026-09-11 | 18:00 | Draw | 17.4% | 16.7% | ▲ +0.8% | 6.00 | |
| 6 |  Al Khaleej– Al Nassr | 2026-09-12 | 18:00 | Home win | 9.7% | 8.9% | ▲ +0.8% | 11.19 |
Where the season is heading
straight-line pace · ~28 rounds leftAt their current points pace, Al Hilal finish top with ~85 points, but the title race is open: Al Nassr project within 1 points. The market's biggest argument is with Al Taawon: their results pace says ~17 points, the pace of their market prices (xPTS) says ~50 — one of them gives in.
| # | Team | Pts now | Results pace | Market pace | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 15 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 15 | 85 | 81 | +4 |
| 3 | Al Qadsiah | 15 | 85 | 71 | +14 |
| 4 |  Al Ittihad | 14 | 79 | 52 | +28 |
| 5 | Neom SC | 12 | 68 | 47 | +21 |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Al Fateh | 3 | 17 | 36 | -19 |
| 17 | Al-Faisaly | 3 | 17 | 31 | -14 |
| 18 | Abha | 1 | 6 | 34 | -28 |
Straight-line pace over each team's remaining scheduled fixtures — not a simulation. Market pace extrapolates xPTS (the points the market's prices expected so far) the same way. Split and playoff rounds count once they're scheduled.
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Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Saudi Professional League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 15 | 14.2 | +0.8 | |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 15 | 14.4 | +0.6 | |
| 3 | Al Qadsiah | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 | |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 14 | 9.1 | +4.9 | |
| 5 | Neom SC | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Al Fateh | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | |
| 17 | Al-Faisaly | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | |
| 18 | Abha | 1 | 6.0 | -5.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+