Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +20.7% at market prices across 70 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Al Taawon produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Al Fateh – Al Ahli SC2026-10-09 14:55FT U3.5Model 64.5%Implied 55.6%▲ +9.0%- Al Shabab – Al Taawon2026-10-11 18:00Under 2.5Model 50.4%Implied 42.7%▲ +7.7%
- Al Hazem – Neom SC2026-10-10 13:50Under 2.5Model 55.4%Implied 48.8%▲ +6.6%
- Al Hilal – Al Ittihad2026-10-10 18:00Away winModel 16.3%Implied 13.0%▲ +3.3%
- Al Fayha – Al Riyadh2026-10-11 13:40Under 2.5Model 55.7%Implied 54.9%▲ +0.7%
- Al Ettifaq – Al Khaleej2026-10-10 14:55Under 2.5Model 47.3%Implied 46.9%▲ +0.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Fateh– Al Ahli SC | 2026-10-09 | 14:55 | FT U3.5 | 64.5% | 55.6% | ▲ +9.0% | 1.80 |
| 2 |  Al Shabab– Al Taawon | 2026-10-11 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 42.7% | ▲ +7.7% | 2.34 |
| 3 |  Al Hazem– Neom SC | 2026-10-10 | 13:50 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 48.8% | ▲ +6.6% | 2.05 |
| 4 |  Al Hilal– Al Ittihad | 2026-10-10 | 18:00 | Away win | 16.3% | 13.0% | ▲ +3.3% | 7.70 |
| 5 |  Al Fayha– Al Riyadh | 2026-10-11 | 13:40 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 54.9% | ▲ +0.7% | 1.82 |
| 6 |  Al Ettifaq– Al Khaleej | 2026-10-10 | 14:55 | Under 2.5 | 47.3% | 46.9% | ▲ +0.3% | 2.13 |
Add Saudi Professional League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Saudi Professional League schedule 10,000 times a day. Al Hilal win the 2026-2027 title in 64% of them, projecting ~79 points; Al Qadsiah are next at 17%. At the other end, Abha finish in the bottom three in 90% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Al Qadsiah's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 18 | 79 | 72–86 | ▲64% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 16 | 73 | 65–80 | ▼17% | 96% | — |
| 3 |  Al Nassr | 16 | 73 | 65–80 | 16% | 94% | — |
| 4 | Al Ahli SC | 12 | 66 | 58–74 | 3% | 71% | — |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 17 | 62 | 53–70 | <1% | 34% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 33 | 26–41 | — | — | 31% |
| 17 | Al-Faisaly | 3 | 29 | 21–37 | — | — | 58% |
| 18 | Abha | 2 | 23 | 16–30 | — | — | 90% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 243 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Saudi Professional League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 21 | 19.0 | +2.0 | |
| 2 | Al Ittihad | 20 | 13.2 | +6.8 | |
| 3 | Al Qadsiah | 19 | 17.5 | +1.5 | |
| 4 | Neom SC | 18 | 12.0 | +6.0 | |
| 5 | Al Nassr | 16 | 16.7 | -0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 17 | Al-Faisaly | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | |
| 18 | Al Taawon | 3 | 9.3 | -6.3 | |
| 19 | Abha | 2 | 6.6 | -4.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+