Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Al Ittihad | 34 | 83 | 65.8 | +17.2Outperforming ++ | 4 | +13.5 | +3.7 | 2:3 vs Al Shabab (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Damac (-2.1) |
2 | Al Ettifaq | 34 | 50 | 43.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 7 | -4.3 | +10.7 | 1:3 vs Al Ahli SC (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Al Raed (-2.0) |
3 | Al Shabab | 34 | 60 | 54.0 | +6.0Outperforming ++ | 6 | +2.5 | +3.5 | 0:1 vs Al Qadisiya (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Al Ittihad (-1.7) |
4 | Al Qadisiya | 34 | 68 | 62.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 5 | +7.7 | -2.5 | 1:2 vs Al Nassr (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Damac (-2.1) |
5 | Al Taawon | 34 | 45 | 41.8 | +3.2Outperforming | 8 | +2.7 | +0.5 | 0:3 vs Al Qadisiya (+2.3) | 3:2 vs Al Orubah (-1.7) |
6 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 38 | 35.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 15 | +0.5 | +2.0 | 0:1 vs Al Okhdood (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Al Raed (-1.8) |
7 | Al Kholood | 34 | 40 | 37.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 13 | +5.1 | -3.1 | 1:0 vs Al Ahli SC (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Damac (-1.7) |
8 | Al Wehda | 34 | 33 | 32.8 | +0.2On expectation | 16 | -1.8 | +1.9 | 1:2 vs Al Okhdood (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Al Kholood (-1.5) |
9 | Al Ahli SC | 34 | 67 | 67.2 | -0.2On expectation | 3 | +0.7 | -0.8 | 2:3 vs Al Hilal (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Al Ettifaq (-2.4) |
10 | Al Orubah | 34 | 30 | 30.2 | -0.2On expectation | 18 | -1.1 | +0.9 | 1:2 vs Damac (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Al Khaleej (-1.5) |
11 | Al Fayha | 34 | 36 | 36.4 | -0.4On expectation | 14 | +0.7 | -1.1 | 2:1 vs Al Qadisiya (+2.2) | 0:5 vs Al Raed (-1.4) |
12 | Al Fateh | 34 | 39 | 39.9 | -0.9On expectation | 9 | +2.7 | -3.6 | 3:2 vs Al Nassr (+2.5) | 1:2 vs Al Taawon (-1.7) |
13 | Al Khaleej | 34 | 37 | 38.0 | -1.0On expectation | 12 | -5.0 | +4.0 | 3:2 vs Al Hilal (+2.5) | 0:2 vs Al Wehda (-1.7) |
14 | Al Hilal | 34 | 75 | 78.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 1 | +0.1 | -3.6 | 1:2 vs Al Ahli SC (+1.1) | 3:2 vs Al Khaleej (-2.4) |
15 | Al Nassr | 34 | 70 | 73.6 | -3.6Underperforming | 2 | -6.5 | +2.9 | 1:3 vs Al Hilal (+1.9) | 3:2 vs Al Fateh (-2.3) |
16 | Damac | 34 | 35 | 39.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 11 | +0.3 | -4.8 | 1:0 vs Al Qadisiya (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Al Orubah (-1.9) |
17 | Al Okhdood | 34 | 34 | 39.9 | -5.9Underperforming −− | 10 | -9.5 | +3.6 | 2:1 vs Al Ahli SC (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Al Riyadh (-1.8) |
18 | Al Raed | 34 | 21 | 31.0 | -10.0Underperforming −− | 17 | -9.5 | -0.5 | 0:1 vs Al Ettifaq (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Al Riyadh (-1.6) |