Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Al Hilal | 34 | 96 | 80.5 | +15.5Outperforming ++ | 1 | +7.3 | +8.2 | 3:4 vs Al Ittihad (+1.6) | 1:1 vs Damac (-1.6) |
2 | Al Taawon | 34 | 59 | 50.0 | +8.9Outperforming ++ | 7 | +3.1 | +5.8 | 0:2 vs Al Nassr (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Al Riyadh (-2.3) |
3 | Al Nassr | 34 | 82 | 74.2 | +7.8Outperforming ++ | 2 | -0.8 | +8.6 | 0:1 vs Al Ahli SC (+1.6) | 0:2 vs Al Taawon (-2.5) |
4 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 35 | 29.3 | +5.7Outperforming ++ | 18 | +2.6 | +3.1 | 2:1 vs Al Ahli SC (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Al Okhdood (-1.4) |
5 | Al Fayha | 34 | 44 | 38.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 12 | -2.3 | +7.5 | 1:2 vs Al Ettifaq (+2.3) | 2:4 vs Damac (-1.4) |
6 | Al Fateh | 34 | 45 | 44.7 | +0.3On expectation | 8 | -1.3 | +1.7 | 5:1 vs Al Ahli SC (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Al Taee (-2.0) |
7 | Abha | 34 | 32 | 32.4 | -0.4On expectation | 16 | +10.6 | -11.0 | 3:1 vs Al Ittihad (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Al Riyadh (-1.8) |
8 | Damac | 34 | 41 | 41.4 | -0.4On expectation | 9 | +0.1 | -0.5 | 0:2 vs Al Khaleej (+1.8) | 1:0 vs Al Riyadh (-1.8) |
9 | Al Ahli SC | 34 | 65 | 66.2 | -1.2On expectation | 3 | +1.1 | -2.4 | 0:1 vs Al Ittihad (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Al Riyadh (-2.3) |
10 | Al Khaleej | 34 | 37 | 38.6 | -1.6On expectation | 13 | -6.7 | +5.1 | 0:1 vs Al Raed (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Damac (-1.5) |
11 | Al Taee | 34 | 31 | 33.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 15 | +3.0 | -5.2 | 0:1 vs Al Fateh (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Al Wehda (-1.6) |
12 | Al Raed | 34 | 37 | 39.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 11 | -2.0 | -0.8 | 1:3 vs Al Nassr (+2.4) | 4:3 vs Al Taee (-1.7) |
13 | Al Wehda | 34 | 36 | 40.5 | -4.5Underperforming | 10 | -0.6 | -3.9 | 3:1 vs Al Shabab (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Al Hazem (-1.7) |
14 | Al Okhdood | 34 | 33 | 38.0 | -5.0Underperforming −− | 14 | -2.6 | -2.4 | 3:2 vs Al Ahli SC (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Al Riyadh (-1.8) |
15 | Al Ettifaq | 34 | 48 | 53.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 5 | -4.1 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Al Shabab (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Al Fayha (-2.1) |
16 | Al Hazem | 34 | 24 | 31.2 | -7.2Underperforming −− | 17 | -3.4 | -3.8 | 0:2 vs Al Wehda (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Al Taee (-1.3) |
17 | Al Shabab | 34 | 44 | 53.1 | -9.1Underperforming −− | 6 | -1.3 | -7.9 | 1:0 vs Al Ittihad (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Al Fayha (-2.0) |
18 | Al Ittihad | 34 | 54 | 64.0 | -10.0Underperforming −− | 4 | -4.6 | -5.4 | 2:4 vs Al Fateh (+1.2) | 1:3 vs Al Raed (-2.2) |