Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctBiggest divergence
Flamengo RJ – Atletico-MG+11.5%
Under 1.5 HT · data 73% vs market 62%
Late-goal kings
Flamengo RJ100%
28 of their 28 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+1.9%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +1.9% at market prices across 296 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-10.5 ptsCorinthians produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Flamengo RJ – Atletico-MG2026-10-27 23:00Under 1.5 HTModel 73.3%Implied 61.7%▲ +11.5%- Corinthians – Mirassol2026-10-31 23:00Away winModel 29.8%Implied 18.9%▲ +11.0%
- Bragantino – Chapecoense-SC2026-10-28 22:30Under 1.5 HTModel 68.3%Implied 61.0%▲ +7.4%
- Santos – Palmeiras2026-10-28 22:30Away winModel 47.6%Implied 40.3%▲ +7.3%
- Remo – Botafogo RJ2026-10-29 00:30Under 1.5 HTModel 71.5%Implied 66.7%▲ +4.8%
- Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro2026-10-29 22:30Under 2.5Model 58.9%Implied 54.3%▲ +4.6%
- Bahia – Sao Paulo2026-10-29 00:30Under 2.5Model 56.1%Implied 52.1%▲ +4.0%
- Vasco – Flamengo RJ2026-10-30 23:00Away winModel 52.2%Implied 49.0%▲ +3.2%
- Fluminense – Internacional2026-10-28 22:30Home winModel 54.7%Implied 52.9%▲ +1.7%
- Coritiba – Vitoria2026-10-29 22:30Home winModel 45.5%Implied 44.1%▲ +1.5%
- Coritiba – Gremio2026-10-26 22:30Over 2.5Model 52.8%Implied 51.8%▲ +1.0%
- Gremio – Athletico-PR2026-10-30 00:30Over 2.5Model 46.6%Implied 46.1%▲ +0.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo RJ– Atletico-MG | 2026-10-27 | 23:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 73.3% | 61.7% | ▲ +11.5% | 1.62 |
| 2 |  Corinthians– Mirassol | 2026-10-31 | 23:00 | Away win | 29.8% | 18.9% | ▲ +11.0% | 5.30 |
| 3 |  Bragantino– Chapecoense-SC | 2026-10-28 | 22:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 68.3% | 61.0% | ▲ +7.4% | 1.64 |
| 4 |  Santos– Palmeiras | 2026-10-28 | 22:30 | Away win | 47.6% | 40.3% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.48 |
| 5 |  Remo– Botafogo RJ | 2026-10-29 | 00:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 71.5% | 66.7% | ▲ +4.8% | 1.50 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG– Cruzeiro | 2026-10-29 | 22:30 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 54.3% | ▲ +4.6% | 1.84 |
| 7 |  Bahia– Sao Paulo | 2026-10-29 | 00:30 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 52.1% | ▲ +4.0% | 1.92 |
| 8 |  Vasco–Flamengo RJ | 2026-10-30 | 23:00 | Away win | 52.2% | 49.0% | ▲ +3.2% | 2.04 |
| 9 |  Fluminense– Internacional | 2026-10-28 | 22:30 | Home win | 54.7% | 52.9% | ▲ +1.7% | 1.89 |
| 10 |  Coritiba– Vitoria | 2026-10-29 | 22:30 | Home win | 45.5% | 44.1% | ▲ +1.5% | 2.27 |
| 11 | Coritiba– Gremio | 2026-10-26 | 22:30 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 51.8% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.93 |
| 12 | Gremio– Athletico-PR | 2026-10-30 | 00:30 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 46.1% | ▲ +0.5% | 2.17 |
Add Serie A fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie A schedule 10,000 times a day. Flamengo RJ win the 2026 title in 77% of them, projecting ~78 points; Palmeiras are next at 23%. At the other end, Chapecoense-SC finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo RJ | 64 | 78 | 74–82 | 77% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 63 | 75 | 71–79 | 23% | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 51 | 60 | 56–64 | — | 72% | — |
| 4 | Athletico-PR | 50 | 59 | 55–63 | — | 53% | — |
| 5 |  Bahia | 49 | 58 | 54–62 | — | 34% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 39 | 35–43 | — | — | 36% |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 32 | 28–35 | — | — | 98% |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 18 | 24 | 20–28 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 63 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/brazil/serie-a-betano/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie A live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/brazil/serie-a-betano">Serie A stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie A match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +1.9%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out +1.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ 0.0%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out 0.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ 0.0%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out 0.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −2.3%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Draws in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −2.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −7.1%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Home wins in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −7.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −15.6%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −15.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −19.0%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Away wins in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −19.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 64 | 60.4 | +3.6 | |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 63 | 52.8 | +10.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Fluminense | 51 | 45.8 | +5.2 | |
| 4 | Athletico-PR | 50 | 39.4 | +10.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | Bahia | 49 | 44.0 | +5.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 36.0 | -5.0 | |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 29.9 | -4.9 | |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 18 | 24.0 | -6.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+