Biggest divergence
Mirassol – Remo+16.8%
Over 1.5 HT · data 50% vs market 33%
Fastest starters
Athletico-PR21%
6 of their 28 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Santos38%
11 of their 29 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+6.6uBlindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-7.4 ptsInternacional produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
34%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Mirassol – Remo2026-07-30 22:30Over 1.5 HT ✓49.7%vs 32.9%▲ +16.8%- Fluminense – Bahia2026-07-30 00:30Under 2.5 ✓54.0%vs 48.2%▲ +5.9%
- Vitoria – Palmeiras2026-07-30 00:30BTTS: No55.5%vs 49.7%▲ +5.7%
- Internacional – Flamengo RJ2026-07-30 22:30Under 1.5 HT ✓71.0%vs 66.1%▲ +4.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mirassol– Remo | 2026-07-30 | 22:30 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 49.7% | 32.9% | ▲ +16.8% | 2.84 |
| 2 |  Fluminense– Bahia | 2026-07-30 | 00:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 54.0% | 48.2% | ▲ +5.9% | 1.97 |
| 3 |  Vitoria– Palmeiras | 2026-07-30 | 00:30 | BTTS: No | 55.5% | 49.7% | ▲ +5.7% | 1.87 |
| 4 |  Internacional– Flamengo RJ | 2026-07-30 | 22:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 71.0% | 66.1% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.41 |
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie A match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 44 | 34.6 | +9.4 | champions — earned it |
| 2 |  Flamengo RJ | 38 | 37.4 | +0.6 | |
| 3 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdown
Follow the Serie A
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
Mirassol
