Biggest divergence
Botafogo RJ – Bragantino+13.9%
Home win · data 56% vs market 43%
Fastest starters
Botafogo RJ22%
8 of their 37 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Santos38%
14 of their 37 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Least bad strategy
-1.6uEven the best blind strategy (over 2.5 goals) lost this season. The bookmaker margin is undefeated.
Most underrated by results
-12.0 ptsInternacional produced performances worth 12 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Botafogo RJ – Bragantino2026-09-13 23:30Home win ✓56.5%vs 42.6%▲ +13.9%- Gremio – Vasco2026-09-12 19:00Home win ✓51.3%vs 39.2%▲ +12.1%
- Coritiba – Athletico-PR2026-09-12 00:00Home win ✓37.4%vs 32.1%▲ +5.3%
- Santos – Cruzeiro2026-09-13 00:00Home win ✓38.0%vs 34.0%▲ +3.9%
- Bahia – Remo2026-09-15 23:00Over 1.5 HT ✓45.7%vs 42.2%▲ +3.5%
- Chapecoense-SC – Internacional2026-09-12 20:00Home win ✓34.0%vs 31.2%▲ +2.9%
- Palmeiras – Sao Paulo2026-09-12 21:30Home win ✓63.3%vs 60.6%▲ +2.7%
- Atletico-MG – Fluminense2026-09-12 19:00Under 1.5 HT ✓77.8%vs 75.8%▲ +2.0%
- Mirassol – Vitoria2026-09-13 19:00Under 2.554.4%vs 53.2%▲ +1.3%
- Botafogo RJ – Gremio2026-09-17 22:30Over 2.552.5%vs 51.3%▲ +1.2%
- Flamengo RJ – Corinthians2026-09-13 20:30Over 1.5 HT37.3%vs 36.8%▲ +0.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Botafogo RJ– Bragantino | 2026-09-13 | 23:30 | Home win ✓ | 56.5% | 42.6% | ▲ +13.9% | 2.35 | |
| 2 |  Gremio– Vasco | 2026-09-12 | 19:00 | Home win ✓ | 51.3% | 39.2% | ▲ +12.1% | 2.55 | |
| 3 |  Coritiba– Athletico-PR | 2026-09-12 | 00:00 | Home win ✓ | 37.4% | 32.1% | ▲ +5.3% | 3.12 | |
| 4 |  Santos– Cruzeiro | 2026-09-13 | 00:00 | Home win ✓ | 38.0% | 34.0% | ▲ +3.9% | 2.94 | |
| 5 |  Bahia– Remo | 2026-09-15 | 23:00 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 45.7% | 42.2% | ▲ +3.5% | 2.37 | |
| 6 |  Chapecoense-SC– Internacional | 2026-09-12 | 20:00 | Home win ✓ | 34.0% | 31.2% | ▲ +2.9% | 3.21 | |
| 7 |  Palmeiras– Sao Paulo | 2026-09-12 | 21:30 | Home win ✓ | 63.3% | 60.6% | ▲ +2.7% | 1.65 | |
| 8 |  Atletico-MG– Fluminense | 2026-09-12 | 19:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 77.8% | 75.8% | ▲ +2.0% | 1.32 | |
| 9 |  Mirassol– Vitoria | 2026-09-13 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 53.2% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.88 | |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ–Gremio | 2026-09-17 | 22:30 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 51.3% | ▲ +1.2% | 1.95 | |
| 11 |  Flamengo RJ– Corinthians | 2026-09-13 | 20:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 37.3% | 36.8% | ▲ +0.6% | 2.72 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Serie A schedule 10,000 times a day. Flamengo RJ win the 2026 title in 64% of them, projecting ~78 points; Palmeiras are next at 36%. At the other end, Chapecoense-SC finish in the bottom three in 99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 54 | 78 | 73–83 | 64% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 53 | 77 | 71–82 | 36% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 45 | 63 | 57–69 | <1% | 64% | — |
| 4 | Fluminense | 45 | 63 | 57–68 | <1% | 60% | — |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 42 | 60 | 55–66 | <1% | 34% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Vasco | 25 | 40 | 35–46 | — | — | 44% |
| 19 | Remo | 23 | 36 | 31–42 | — | — | 79% |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 17 | 28 | 23–34 | — | — | 99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 124 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/brazil/serie-a-betano/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie A live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/brazil/serie-a-betano">Serie A stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie A match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▼ -1.6u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Serie A match in 2026: -1.6 units over 256 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -7.8u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Serie A match in 2026: -7.8 units over 256 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -11.2u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Serie A match in 2026: -11.2 units over 256 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -19.8u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Serie A match in 2026: -19.8 units over 256 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -24.0u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Serie A match in 2026: -24.0 units over 256 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -35.3u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Serie A match in 2026: -35.3 units over 256 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -35.4u
256 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Serie A match in 2026: -35.4 units over 256 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 54 | 51.7 | +2.3 | |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 53 | 44.9 | +8.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 45 | 34.8 | +10.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | Fluminense | 45 | 40.8 | +4.2 | |
| 5 |  Bahia | 43 | 37.9 | +5.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Vasco | 25 | 34.1 | -9.1 | underperformed expectations |
| 19 | Remo | 23 | 25.9 | -2.9 | |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+