Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctBiggest divergence
Gremio – Cruzeiro+7.1%
Under 2.5 · data 57% vs market 50%
Late-goal kings
Flamengo RJ100%
28 of their 28 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+1.5%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +1.5% at market prices across 296 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-10.6 ptsCorinthians produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Gremio – Cruzeiro2026-10-18 19:00Under 2.5Model 57.3%Implied 50.3%▲ +7.1%- Mirassol – Internacional2026-10-17 23:00Over 1.5 HTModel 43.6%Implied 36.8%▲ +6.8%
- Fluminense – Santos2026-10-18 19:00Under 1.5 HTModel 78.6%Implied 71.9%▲ +6.7%
- Bahia – Flamengo RJ2026-10-18 21:30Under 1.5 HTModel 71.8%Implied 65.4%▲ +6.4%
- Botafogo RJ – Chapecoense-SC2026-10-17 21:00Under 1.5 HTModel 69.0%Implied 63.3%▲ +5.7%
- Remo – Bragantino2026-10-19 22:30Under 2.5Model 55.9%Implied 51.8%▲ +4.1%
- Corinthians – Vitoria2026-10-20 23:00Away winModel 21.9%Implied 18.7%▲ +3.2%
- Sao Paulo – Vasco2026-10-18 00:00Home winModel 49.9%Implied 46.9%▲ +2.9%
- Atletico-MG – Coritiba2026-10-17 21:30Away winModel 17.4%Implied 14.5%▲ +2.8%
- Athletico-PR – Palmeiras2026-10-18 22:30Away winModel 41.4%Implied 40.8%▲ +0.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gremio– Cruzeiro | 2026-10-18 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 50.3% | ▲ +7.1% | 1.99 |
| 2 |  Mirassol– Internacional | 2026-10-17 | 23:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 43.6% | 36.8% | ▲ +6.8% | 2.72 |
| 3 |  Fluminense– Santos | 2026-10-18 | 19:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 78.6% | 71.9% | ▲ +6.7% | 1.39 |
| 4 |  Bahia– Flamengo RJ | 2026-10-18 | 21:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 71.8% | 65.4% | ▲ +6.4% | 1.53 |
| 5 |  Botafogo RJ– Chapecoense-SC | 2026-10-17 | 21:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 69.0% | 63.3% | ▲ +5.7% | 1.58 |
| 6 |  Remo– Bragantino | 2026-10-19 | 22:30 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 51.8% | ▲ +4.1% | 1.93 |
| 7 |  Corinthians– Vitoria | 2026-10-20 | 23:00 | Away win | 21.9% | 18.7% | ▲ +3.2% | 5.34 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo– Vasco | 2026-10-18 | 00:00 | Home win | 49.9% | 46.9% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.13 |
| 9 |  Atletico-MG– Coritiba | 2026-10-17 | 21:30 | Away win | 17.4% | 14.5% | ▲ +2.8% | 6.88 |
| 10 |  Athletico-PR– Palmeiras | 2026-10-18 | 22:30 | Away win | 41.4% | 40.8% | ▲ +0.6% | 2.45 |
Add Serie A fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie A schedule 10,000 times a day. Flamengo RJ win the 2026 title in 61% of them, projecting ~80 points; Palmeiras are next at 39%. At the other end, Chapecoense-SC finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo RJ | 64 | 80 | 76–84 | 61% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 63 | 79 | 74–83 | 39% | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 51 | 64 | 59–69 | <1% | 76% | — |
| 4 | Athletico-PR | 50 | 61 | 57–66 | — | 47% | — |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 48 | 61 | 56–65 | — | 34% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 41 | 36–45 | — | — | 42% |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 34 | 29–38 | — | — | 96% |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 18 | 25 | 21–29 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 81 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie A match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +1.5%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out +1.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ 0.0%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out 0.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ 0.0%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out 0.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −2.3%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Draws in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −2.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −6.9%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Home wins in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −6.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −15.8%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −15.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −19.1%
at market prices · 296 matcheschart →
Away wins in Serie A, 2026: across 296 matches the market's prices paid out −19.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 64 | 60.3 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 63 | 52.8 | +10.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Fluminense | 51 | 45.8 | +5.2 | |
| 4 | Athletico-PR | 50 | 39.5 | +10.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 |  Bahia | 49 | 44.0 | +5.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 35.9 | -4.9 | |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 29.8 | -4.8 | |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 18 | 24.0 | -6.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+